I wonder how low this will go... I'm still holding on 4.17 and contemplating avg. down. Can someone remind me the best estimate for when results of 1st well will be released?

i'm in - small
3.24

currently 3.18

fahraint spot on.... still got a sick feeling about hdy.

short it then htown and make some of your money back.

Someone bought a lot of shares this afternoon.

I'm not doing anything else with HDY except praying that is quickly gets back to my avg entry level, so I can get the hell out and move on.

My concern at this point is that it has equal chance to go to 10x or .1x my entry level.

I wonder how close we are to judgement day. Starting to get butterflies.

Hope 3.1 holds....if not, there is a lot of air beneath, all the way to 2

The chart is ripe for a rally....if you averaged in from 3.75 to 3.17, good shape, have a stop in place if a break to the downside below 3 happens, otherwise ride it up and smile as you go

[This message has been edited by fahraint (edited 11/21/2011 8:40p).]

Beware of guessers, and pumpers....read the charts, pay your money and take your chances....

good luck, over and out

Bronson, this is just for you, a fancy TA chart

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HDY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p98526468940&a=247060966&listNum=1Looks like a bottom hammer to me

I count 5 waves down on this move, if I were buying, I'd load up here to balance buys at 3.6, and 3.75, average 3.4 or so........looks ripe for a very nice bounce, too early to crash 3, but I would set a stop at 3

[This message has been edited by fahraint (edited 11/21/2011 10:18p).]

quote:

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The chart is ripe for a rally......if not, there is a lot of air beneath, all the way to 2.

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I agree.

The charts say hdy will not stay flat. It could go down through 3 and approach 2 or it could rally up through 4 and approach 5. Or it could hold 3.10 for awhile before doing either....this is basically what you are saying, but you are delivering it in a way that impresses htownfan and others.

Its beyond me how anyone with any trading experience would see any value in these type of statements ESPECIALLY coming from someone who is on the sidelines with no position.

Nothing personal, I see many here appreciate these types of statements.I would just challenge fahraint to state a single short term senario with HDY that would make his/her latest statements wrong?

This is no different than myself or others saying this investment will pay off or wont pay off longterm depending on exploration results...the difference is fahraint's short term volatility results are realized much quicker, and with no underlying position he can't be anything but spot on about a rally or decline in the near term.


EDIT to Fahraint-
No offense, I'm sure your are knowledgeable on TA and successful establishing short term support and resistance levels with your actual trades. More power to you. My only advise would be to apply your techniques more in the direction of currency markets as opposed to small cap E&Ps with no revenue. I think a TA discussion on Euro/Pounds/Yen/dollar would be much more relevant and productive for this board.

I just cant let someone say that this stock is ripe for a rally or likely to possibly decline towards 2 in one post, then warn everyone of "guessers" in the next post....the irony is too strong to ignore.
-That is all


[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 11/22/2011 10:43a).]

It could go down through 3 and approach 2 or it could rally up through 4 and approach 5.
------------------
the only way this goes to 5 is if there is news. This stock is based on the success of what they are doing short-term, nothing more. It could drive the stock over $10 or push it under $1. I don't have a position (had Nov. calls)but I have plenty of friends that are leveraged quite heavily on the positive side, so I'd love to see it explode.

Thirdcoast, I appreciate your devotion to HDY, and am happy you posted it, I found it an interesting trade. I made 22% on my one trade.......but, I dont owe you any explanation, or proof of TA.

You dont like TA, fine, you would rather go with company BS, maybe they will find oil, maybe not. That is your risk. I could care less about how you invest and trade.

I havent been drawing lines in the sand, you have. I am simply stating what the chart is saying, and have traded by it. Look at the chart and tell me if there isnt support at 3.10? Of course there is....but, nobody has a crystal ball or we would all be retired by now! "TA is a windsock, not a crystal ball!" Swenlin.

Let's see what HDY does around 3.1...I gave you my line, a stop below 3, when support is broken. Otherwise, the odds are, it goes up from here.

I think you are a pumper, and emotionally attached to your stock, dangerous move, imo

Your appeal for me to post where I would be proven wrong is....less than intelligent. This isnt about who is right or wrong, as much as you would like for it to be. It is about odds and risk. Risk rises below 3, therefore a stop at 3, or 2.98. The risk of that is much less than buying here at support, so the odds are now in your favor to buy heavily at 3.1, with a stop at 2.98. If the stop is hit, nothing is proved!

Im going to turn the tables, and use your own logic....

quote:

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It could go down through 3 and approach 2 or it could rally up through 4 and approach 5. Or it could hold 3.10 for awhile before doing either....this is basically what you are saying, but you are delivering it in a way that impresses htownfan and others.

---

Or, HDY could strike oil and go to 100, or it could be a dry hole and go to 25 cents....basically, this is what you are saying. But, you feel the odds are in your favor based on drilling reports, so you invest heavily, and encourage others to do the same, but, you could be wrong, and could lead others over the cliff like lemmings. However, based on your fundamental knowledge, and trust in company BS, you invest heavily.....you feel you know the risks.......

So do I. Buy at support, and set a stop at < 3. I dont believe what companies say, I follow charts, and gauge my odds and risks accordingly


[This message has been edited by fahraint (edited 11/22/2011 8:58p).]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HDY&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p54707249193&a=247060966

If HDY doesnt hit, this is going to 2, or less. Know the risks, pay your money, take your chances.

I like the chart from a technical standpoint at this juncture....if anyone buys here, set a stop below support at 3. Low risk, high reward trade at this point, imo

[This message has been edited by fahraint (edited 11/22/2011 9:09p).]

3rdcoast, Ever ask yourself why you have been inappropriately and emotionally defensive against TA, when none of it was directed against you, or your pet investment?

I use charts to invest, you use other stuff....so what?

Wow....

it's not about TA, it's about posters with no position justifying shorterm volatility in both directions.

Sorry you misunderstood. There is no evidence to support your accusations. It's amusing that you have to resort to calling me a pumper and emotional with nothing to back it up. I have consistently shed light on risks and concerns, short interest, and institutional activity ect.

Anyone with the slightest trading experience can understand the point I made by simply reading your posts....no need for me to comment further.

I know a lot about TA and have nothing against it. I just understand it's reliability and probabilities differ across equities and from my experience it is generally most lucrative with currencies.

[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 11/23/2011 12:53a).]

FWIW, it's my experience that hedging (selling calls/ buying puts) is a better alternative to setting stops with this volatility.

MMs have consistantly capitalized on triggered stops at the retail shareholders expense.

Triggered stops, margin calls, and retail emotions are part of what has allowed the major increase in tute ownership over a relatively short period of time without sustained run up.

[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 11/23/2011 8:26a).]

becoming emotional when it comes to buying/selling was my biggest hurdle to overcome. The six month price for this stock is dependant on ONE event. Take it or leave it.

3.10

to buy or to just sit it out

In the 2's...

Sub 3.00 now..

Here is where I would have exited. 3 has been breached to the downside, my stop would have been hit, to manage the downside risk from here

Im good at buying, just not at selling.

Have a limit buy order at 2.85.

Bought at $2.93

got in late at 2.99

Take the loss and start over or hold my position? hmmmm...any advice?

why did this stock shoot up from a $1?? Because of the "chance" it will hit oil. There is still that chance, but if they don't?? Ouch.

There have been a lot of other de-risking factors involved.

quote:

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There have been a lot of other de-risking factors involved.

---

What do you mean?

[This message has been edited by LihaiAg06 (edited 11/23/2011 10:36a).]

Once again, alot of margin calls going into effect down here driing prices further down.

bought more at 2.95....

Let's hit some damn oil.

Last time fahraint declared his personal sell hdy subsequently went up 40%.

It didn't rally, as the "charts" suggested but it still could free fall also according to the "charts".

I would average down and take advantage of those who are selling on margin call, those who are getting stopped out, the general holiday weekend market selloff ect...

Shorts are getting their chance to cover as expected after the last cc.