How long does the drillship take to move?
Time to buy HDY
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Last: 2 yr ago by Decay
Roughly 6 weeks.
When it leaves, I will post images and links so we can track it.
When it leaves, I will post images and links so we can track it.
I can't wait til October...up to 1000 shares now averaged in at 4.27, drill baby drill!
Down big this morning. Just picked up some more. Hope there's not some bad news coming.
Here is my personal theory on the price action over the speculative period prior to drilling:
http://investorvillage.com/groups.asp?mb=10989&mn=56036&pt=msg&mid=10849652
http://investorvillage.com/groups.asp?mb=10989&mn=56036&pt=msg&mid=10849652
Looks to be down with the market.
4.13 -0.36 -8.02%
Down more than the market (4%), but typical of this stock - larger swings in both directions. No cause for alarm IMO.
Just put in a limit buy at 4.08. We'll see if it triggers.
Down more than the market (4%), but typical of this stock - larger swings in both directions. No cause for alarm IMO.
Just put in a limit buy at 4.08. We'll see if it triggers.
It did. In for 1000 shares.
I'm in again at $4.05.
just got in at 4.00
Looks like we got in too soon, but I've learned my lesson from past mistakes and saved some of my money for an entry if it dropped further. Thinking about putting a limit order at 3.8
That was a really quick pop off of 3.8. HDY has done that a couple of times at that level.
yeah i had my limit at 3.9 and it hovered at 4.02-4.04 for about an hour or so. changed my limit to 4.0 and hit ...then about 14 seconds later it is at 3.83.
For those who would like to track the Jasper reference this link. It works great mobile also:
http://aprs.fi/?call=i%2F564347000
Should leave Singapore within the next couple weeks.
[This message has been edited by Thirdcoast (edited 8/19/2011 9:16a).]
http://aprs.fi/?call=i%2F564347000
Should leave Singapore within the next couple weeks.
[This message has been edited by Thirdcoast (edited 8/19/2011 9:16a).]
With the price of oil going way down, how does that affect HDY stock once they start drilling? Will we still see a big jump?
I wouldnt worry too much about oil prices as HDY is several years away from producing. It may effect valuations upon proving reserves but you will be more concerned about taking profits than oil prices at that point.
HDY has recieved significantly more exposure which brings about more trading on oil prices and market swings as small speculative stock, so there could be some short term effects there.
HDY has recieved significantly more exposure which brings about more trading on oil prices and market swings as small speculative stock, so there could be some short term effects there.
Thanks. So say everything goes according to plan and they start drilling in October. When would we see HDY's price peak? I know nothing about oil and gas exploration, but you said they're several years away from production. Would its price peak several years down the road when they're in full production or several months from now after they've drilled and struck oil?
cinco, the market will decide. Once a well is drilled, they will know if there seismic interpretation is correct and how correct it is. They can then book reserves as "proven" which should make their book value increase drastically. At that point, they're a valuable company by their books, but they'll still be losing money. Once they start producing and selling oil, they should turn profitable which should make the stock price increase. However, as they sale their oil and turn it into cash, their proven reserves are being depleted which causes book value to go down if they don't replace or increase their reserves by finding more oil.
In short, the price should go up when they prove their current reserves, and assuming all other things stay the same, the price should increase again as they begin to turn a profit and more profit. After that, the price depends on their ability to find more oil.
In short, the price should go up when they prove their current reserves, and assuming all other things stay the same, the price should increase again as they begin to turn a profit and more profit. After that, the price depends on their ability to find more oil.
Got it. Thanks.
Its all about proving reserves and proving the 3d. They will then get much much better offers from JV/farm outs or produce by themselves all while they continue to prove value in the deepwater. The deepwater will almost certainly require a deal with a major further down the road if things work out.
A lot of capital investment won't consider HDY until they know for sure there is oil and how much. If proven there will be buying pressure, higher tute ownership and more stability going forward.
A lot of capital investment won't consider HDY until they know for sure there is oil and how much. If proven there will be buying pressure, higher tute ownership and more stability going forward.
The voyage has begun!
ETA late Sept/early Oct
ETA late Sept/early Oct
Ugh......
So any real price movement between now and drilling probably doesn't have much real basis, right? Short interest and all that stuff that I don't fully understand.
Between now and drilling the price of oil could cause the stock price to move. That would have real basis.
[This message has been edited by harge57 (edited 8/22/2011 4:52p).]
[This message has been edited by harge57 (edited 8/22/2011 4:52p).]
Still supply/demand technicals with a finite amount of shares. Still easy money for market makers.
Keeping a close eye on short interest, the closer that rig gets to oil the higher risk goes for shorts.
Unless shorts know something we don't, we may be in for big short squeeze when the balance tips the other direction. I suspect the majority of shorts above 5 are covering below 4.
[This message has been edited by Thirdcoast (edited 8/22/2011 6:24p).]
Keeping a close eye on short interest, the closer that rig gets to oil the higher risk goes for shorts.
Unless shorts know something we don't, we may be in for big short squeeze when the balance tips the other direction. I suspect the majority of shorts above 5 are covering below 4.
[This message has been edited by Thirdcoast (edited 8/22/2011 6:24p).]
[This message has been edited by LihaiAg06 (edited 8/22/2011 6:48p).]
HDY is up even though energy stocks, oil, and the market as a whole are down. Interesting, because it has generally seemed to go up or down with the market (but with bigger swings).
[This message has been edited by Ulrich (edited 8/25/2011 10:41a).]
[This message has been edited by Ulrich (edited 8/25/2011 10:41a).]
short covering may have something to do with the recent support against the market
Data and time will tell.
Data and time will tell.
What do you all expect in regards to share price as it approaches time to start drilling? Do you think the anticipation will cause a rise in price? Or do you think short trading/squeezing and all that will have an even greater effect at that time causing even more volatility?
No telling. I expected more positive speculation much earlier. It looks as though it could be up until announcement of drilling results rather than spudding the well when we see significant short covering. More hedging than exposed shorts I suppose.
Possible outcomes:
-Short interest stays flat or increases slightly all the way to positive drilling results in which case we will see the mother of all short squeezes.
-Short interest declines over the next 6-10 weeks as price steadily increases into drilling announcement.
-Short interest stays flat or increases slightly all the way to negative drilling results in which case we will see price collapse under short pressure.
All we can do is monitor the data and be patient.
Up to Aug 15th:
[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 8/26/2011 1:01p).]
Possible outcomes:
-Short interest stays flat or increases slightly all the way to positive drilling results in which case we will see the mother of all short squeezes.
-Short interest declines over the next 6-10 weeks as price steadily increases into drilling announcement.
-Short interest stays flat or increases slightly all the way to negative drilling results in which case we will see price collapse under short pressure.
All we can do is monitor the data and be patient.
Up to Aug 15th:
[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 8/26/2011 1:01p).]
I like the first two scenarios. Third, not so much.
looks promising....
Gig 'em &
Happy Trails
Gig 'em &
Happy Trails
Cavjock,
Care to define your setiment or sarcasm?
I would not describe this equity as "promising" rather I would use the word "potential". In this case the potential outweights the risk IMO.
[This message has been edited by Thirdcoast (edited 8/29/2011 11:59a).]
Care to define your setiment or sarcasm?
I would not describe this equity as "promising" rather I would use the word "potential". In this case the potential outweights the risk IMO.
[This message has been edited by Thirdcoast (edited 8/29/2011 11:59a).]
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