I use fidelity as well, I looked up after hours trading with them and in order to enable it on your account you have to fill out some forms and I think you have to call them as well. I never actually went through with it.

It is a pickle... if it weren't for the pending 3D report there would be no question that you should wait it out for another drop. Unfortunately, that report is likely to be a gamechanger for this stock. That's why I bought at 5.05; I figured I would be mildly irritated if it drops 20 cents today, but furious if it blows up while I'm sitting on a pile of cash.

The pickle is trying to time this thing on a daily basis while attributing whatever event you want to justify price at any given point. Or using past performance to justify predictions.

In 6 months saving a dime now on orders wont mean anything.

This is my strategy:
1) Stay well capitalized
2) Acquire as many shares as possible before reserves are proven
3)Understand the short term technical factors at play.

Back in June when HDY Sep11 7.5 calls were .15, I bought 10.

I'm at breakeven today!

Maybe it will grow enough to cover the profits I missed today by clicking "limit" instead of "stop" on my MSFT Aug 24 calls. At $2.90, I'm the "Day Low" on an option I can currently unload for $3.20.

Heck Darn Shoot

I'm decently pleased on the 5% I've made buying back in so far to recoup the ~20% I've missed out on by closing out last week.

<gagball emoticon>

Just bought back in at $5.24. Embarrassing and a lesson learned. That's what I said last time, but this time I mean it. Now it will probably slip down to mid-to-upper $4's tomorrow just watch.

From now on if I want to gamble, i will stick to college football and blackjack where the stakes are much lower but the enjoyment/pain is more immediate.


[This message has been edited by Charles Bronson (edited 7/21/2011 2:41p).]

How high can this one go? Today surprised me.

you will all feel silly when this drops back to $4.50 in the next two weeks

now, don't take this as I'm down on this stock. I'm simply pointing out that without significant, material news (none), this is probably getting propped up in the short term by the move to the NYSE, HDY being the bell ringers, and getting pub from items like "highest % gains" on stock queries.

I'm thinking about buying a nice chunk of Jan 13 $5 calls, but there's no sense in buying them now with almost a $1 runup in 3 trading days on no news

I'm glad I didn't try to get "smart" for once and trade in and out of this.

quote:

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by the move to the NYSE, HDY being the bell ringers

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so was it just a really delayed effect in your opinion? the large runup began this tuesday. 13% increase in one day followed by several solid days to where we are now just because it was moved to the NYSE over a week prior? is that how it usually works re: delayed effect? honest question from an inexperienced/ignorant-in-many-ways investor.

[This message has been edited by Charles Bronson (edited 7/21/2011 3:20p).]

quote:

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I'm simply pointing out that without significant, material news (none),

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Be careful with this logic.

I rode HDY up from $3 to $7.50 without any material news last christmas. I remember watching about 20-25 green sessions in a row, during that time.

Obviously past performance is not an indication of future performance, but neither is rational logic in general with this stock in the short term.

Its severely undervalued now, and likely will be until reserves are proven...3.50, 4.50, 5.50, 6.50..... all great entry points if you believe in this drilling project.


[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 7/21/2011 3:54p).]

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Its severely undervalued now,

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relative to what? all they have is seismic and acreage at this point and won't even drill their first well until the end of this year.

I'm in the oil/gas business. Yes, there is *potential*. But to say they are undervalued when they don't even have a single wellbore in the ground is a little leading the cart ahead of the horse.

And seismic takes a LOT of time to process (the tendering is really non-news as it's simply saying "we're taking bids" and getting the data (unprocessed) will be months and months away). On top of that, the NSAI report will only be talking about potential reserves. Without a wellbore logging actual pay (and well tests), there are no PROVEN reserves. There are strict reporting rules regarding reserves and the SEC (to protect the consumer).

quote:

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is that how it usually works re: delayed effect?

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pull up the 5 day chart. Notice the heavy volume on the big jump day and how the price has continued to increase but the volume has dropped. Yes, it's delayed. People read newspapers, biz journals, etc. and say "hey, I'll buy that". At the end of the day they see the "daily high gainer" reports and jump on the bandwagon the next day.

Again, there has been no material new news. And again, I'm not *down* on this stock. I'm simply saying that "omg, we're on our way!!!" due to the price action the last couple of days is going to leave you disappointed in the next few weeks.

Whelp, I'm going to just hold onto my position for the long haul, no more trying to jump in and out especially after these past 3 days of activities.

quote:

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pull up the 5 day chart. Notice the heavy volume on the big jump day and how the price has continued to increase but the volume has dropped. Yes, it's delayed. People read newspapers, biz journals, etc. and say "hey, I'll buy that". At the end of the day they see the "daily high gainer" reports and jump on the bandwagon the next day.

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So the 13% increase w/heavy volume on Tuesday was due to the stock moving to the NYSE over a week before? I wouldn't have thought the effects of the move to NYSE would be so delayed, yet so coordinated. Not claiming to have any answers for the increase, this just seems a bit odd to me.

there are multiple things that have been giving HDY "face time", if you will.

moving to the NYSE was one.

on July 15th (Friday) was the Seismic Tendering announcement. Getting that into print takes more time than online. Tuesday was the runup.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Hyperdynamics-Issues-Tender-prnews-4045421933.html?x=0&.v=1

a news release of "we're taking bids" is really a non-news item in terms of material change to the value of the company. but, any news is "face time" and gives exposure to a company (and exposure to people saying "I should buy that". pretty standard for a public company to periodically make press releases like this to keep their public image fresh on investors minds even though, realistically, it means nothing.

On Wednesday HDY got mentioned in this article
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Surging-International-Oil-iw-2279779119.html?x=0&.v=1

the headline? "Surging International Oil Demand Benefits Hercules Offshore and Hyperdynamics"

LOL. How does surging demand benefit a company who isn't even going to drill their first well until months from now? It's just public hype, NOTHING MATERIAL.

There have been numerous more significant events over the past year that have been met with downward pressure on price. Will be interesting to see how this plays out though, for sure.

quote:

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relative to what? all they have is seismic and acreage at this point and won't even drill their first well until the end of this year.

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First off, we are now in Q3, not too far from "the end of this year". I have been in this stock since $.89 so Im sure drilling seems a lot closer to me than you.

relative to:
(A$ per risked barrel) x (B risked barrels) /shares outstanding

Not saying HDY should be valued at $30+ per share but it should be somewhere between the hypothetical valuation calculation above and a dryhole.

I think we are much closer to a dryhole valuation than a proven reserves valuation. That is all I meant by "undervalued".

Blue,
How do you explain the run up from $3 to $7.50 last year? And why wasnt there ever a pullback in that range like you are expecting now?

I realize this was likely before you even knew that HDY existed, but looking back you wont find near as many fundamental events as have been seen since my OP.

Im am in the GOM deepwater drilling business also. However, this is the "no earnings yet- small cap stock" business.

What would you estimate the odds of proving reserves vs dryhole are?

Keep in mind the general success rate across the board offshore west africa is 50%. HDY drilling 2 wells....Look back at my previous post for more technical details on the specific geology and play types.

Not saying their wont be a pull back, but I wouldnt count on it.

[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 7/21/2011 6:47p).]

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so Im sure drilling seems a lot closer to me than you

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considering the timing of getting drilling started and the depth they are drilling to (700m of water, 2,900m of rock), realistically we are looking at 5-6 months at the earliest to get logging results

quote:

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How do you explain the run up from $3 to $7.50 last year? And why wasnt there ever a pullback in that range like you are expecting now?

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glancing at the press releases, I see in December/January when the stock went from $3.50 to $7 that there were some announcements about adding some staff, some company updates, and the farmout agreement. After the rocket up to $7, it promptly came back down to $4 within 3 weeks.


Look, don't get your panties in a bunch. I'm simply pointing out that they've gotten some "face time" with publicity (news articles, etc.) here in the last week or so but nothing MATERIAL has changed to create a 20% increase in share value.

Sure, it has crept up from $1 in September 2010 to $4+. You would expect that as things progress from seismic to potential targets to AVO analysis to picking locations to getting the rig out there. These are momentum building issues. I'm simply pointing out that this week, going from $4 to $5 without material events is likely to be suppressed back to previous levels as the "face time" recent pub wears off. Just look at a six month chart and look at the volatile peaks followed by volatile pullbacks.

you need MATERIAL EVENTS to create a price increase followed by sustained pricing

I would have never even heard about this stock unless I read this thread on TexAgs, so thanks thirdcoast for the valuable info and updates. Be sure to keep em coming because a lot of us are keeping up with the info.

I'm up 28% on this stock in only about 6 weeks. To $30 and beyond!

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realistically we are looking at 5-6 months at the earliest to get logging results

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Yep, and production revenue is over a year away.

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Look, don't get your panties in a bunch.

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lol

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I see in December/January when the stock went from $3.50 to $7 that there were some announcements about adding some staff, some company updates, and the farmout agreement.

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You forgot to mention democratic progress in ROG which logically would have much more impact than the petty events you mentioned. All that aside there has actually been more counterintuitive price reaction than intuitive...you would have had to show up before the last 2 weeks to really understand this...example- 2D results were very positive yet price went down.

If price went down after the failed coup attempt, then you guys would be saying the market saw it as a sign of instability in the region.

Since price went up it was because the attempt was a failure.

You can hindsight justify price at any given point all you want. Im not going to play that game.

quote:

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Just look at a six month chart and look at the volatile peaks followed by volatile pullbacks.

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wow, you are right its gone up and down in the past, so it must go back down now.

quote:

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you need MATERIAL EVENTS to create a price increase followed by sustained pricing

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NO YOU DONT, all you need is more buyers than sellers, and when you combine the short interest (obligated buyers) and new buyers with the increased exposure, there is potential for HDY to never dip back below $5 ever again.

No disrespect blue, I could see this pulling back and I am a bit hedged in case it does. Fundamentals play a big roll longterm, however I would be careful with your short term fundamental justifications....especially in this speculative phase of largely retail owned small cap.

If this does go to $30, do we all have to pitch in and buy TA a new server or two?

If this hits $30, I'll finally buy some stars :-)

Of course, I would probably get excited and unload most of my shares at $15 on the ride up, but we'll see...

Let's hope some shorts want to cover their positions going into the weekend. If i had a large short position i would be pretty nervous right now...with the possibility of potentially surprising 3D seismic numbers being released monday morning (which i highly doubt they will).

I guess the big institutions know what they're doing but there have still got to be a ton of individual shorts who are beginning to worry, if they havent been pooping their pants since tuesday.

[This message has been edited by Charles Bronson (edited 7/22/2011 7:41a).]

up 2% PM 7/21

News had to have leaked out or someone knows something that we dont. Up to 5.42 and up over $1 in a week.

trains leaving the station

quote:

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News had to have leaked out or someone knows something that we dont. Up to 5.42 and up over $1 in a week.

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Ray leaked to the world that risked reserves are going to go up with the NSAI report.

Doesnt have to be a matter of others buying on inside info. Just others buying.

As I pointed out most of the 16 million shares shorted since april went red over $5. Perhaps we are seeing the beginning of steady covering, hopefully its a precursor to a squeeze towards $7-8.

tons of big purchases, one around 1pm that looks enormous

I think we all wish we could have gotten more at 3.25 again

ROG President Alpha Conde to visit Whitehouse 7/29

http://www.africalog.com/news/le-president-alpha-conde-attendu-washington

weak translation via yahoo babblefish, if anyone has a better translation tool please post:

http://babelfish.yahoo.com/translate_url?doit=done&tt=url&intl=1&fr=bf-home&trurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.africalog.com%2Fnews%2Fle-president-alpha-conde-attendu-washington&lp=fr_en&btnTrUrl=Translate

Attackers in failed coup attempt:


http://babelfish.yahoo.com/translate_url?doit=done&tt=url&intl=1&fr=bf-home&trurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.africalog.com%2Fnews%2Fle-president-alpha-conde-attendu-washington&lp=fr_en&btnTrUrl=Translate

Opposition soldiers affiliated with previous Junta ruler Sékouba Konaté
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sékouba_Konaté

looks like the train is slowing. pulling my hair out trying to decide if i should take my 30% since finding this thread and waiting on the sidlines for the drop.

#firstworldproblems

do a 5 day chart and look at the price action vs. volume

today is slightly up on 2/3rd normal volume