This sounds about right

quote:

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If drilling takes 20 days (to 3600 M)  and if I am reading the information in the NSAI report correctly and the top depth of the prospects for Sabu 1 (rollover 4) are as noted, then the approx. timeline to intersect each one would be: 

Santonian 2500 M(56 MMBBL best estimate)13.9 days (Oct 26th) 

Turonian 2900 M(61 MMBBL best estimate)16.1 days (Oct 29th) 

Cenomanian 3100 M(81 MMBBL best estimate)17.2 days (Oct 30th) 

Albian 3400 M(60 MMBBL best estimate)18.8 days (Oct 31)  

 For those who like to point things out, yes there are some variables I did not fold in and there is lots of room for error. I just estimated a timeline based on the info available in the NSAI report, the press releases and some posts on this board speculating on the drilling timeline. 

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From iv



[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 10/20/2011 7:59p).]

I've been following this thread for awhile and may want to jump in finally...

So what's the price to get in based on expected news?

Not really sure. At least one TA'er says sub-4 should happen again, although lately its seemed to strengthen its position from $3.50-4.00 to $4.00-4.50.

Picked up some shares this morning

This might be the week.

Looks like there is a lot of wait-and-see going on today. No trades for over an hour this morning, picking up a little though.

third, any more thoughts? I'm ready to jump back in big so I don't miss the bump.

fahraint, how about that chart? :|

Does anyone (3rd?) have better insight on the short exposure right now? Gotta believe some of those positions have been closed out since the last time that chart was posted. If not, this thing could explode with the slightest bit of good news...

took off a little bit this afternoon.

4.93 +0.27 +5.79%

shares out on loan still high, short interest prob 25-30 mil.

There is a finite number of shares and the potential for explosive news is nearing with each day that passes.

I like risk but not enough to short or wait on the sidelines for sub 4 at this point.

Let's not forget fundraising was at $5 when this thread began...PAC man tutes have been chomping retail shares ever since.

[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 10/24/2011 8:12p).]

up 16% on this thing. guess ill keep holding it.

Hey Nom....sorry for the delay...Using the exact same settings, HDY is looking at a pullback with negative divergence, the stochastics are turning over, I would wait until the dailies bottom before reentering

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HDY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p98526468940&listNum=1&a=247060966
I hate to say it because I like the resource sector, but, if you look at that chart, you will see lower highs over the time span, and a giant descending triangle formation. If it holds support, I will buy sub 4 with a hammer bottom candle. On the other hand, I would also buy on a upside break of the downtrend line connecting the declining tops

IOW, be cautious, if HDY were to break 3 on the downside to complete the descending triangle, it could go a lot lower.....on the other hand, if it breaks out of the long term down trend line formed by the lower highs, that would be a buy signal for me


[This message has been edited by fahraint (edited 2/17/2012 9:50a).]

I disagree, fahraint

HDY has nothing to do with technical analysis at this point. it's all about the drilling results

That's ok with me....I've been wrong before, and will be again....

I guess we'll see how it turns out pretty soon, but, for me, I'm not entering until it pulls back to buy points with oversold readings, or it breaks out of the declining trend line to manage risk

Does anyone know of any comps? I'd like to look at a similar stock that had the same influences. It would be nice to see one with positive drilling results, and one with the poor results...

Small independent successful in the region:
http://www.tullowoil.com/index.asp?pageid=13



The unsuccessful friontier explorers are obviously less prominent.


[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 10/26/2011 11:25p).]

quote:

---

If drilling takes 20 days (to 3600 M) and if I am reading the information in the NSAI report correctly and the top depth of the prospects for Sabu 1 (rollover 4) are as noted, then the approx. timeline to intersect each one would be:

Santonian 2500 M(56 MMBBL best estimate)13.9 days (Oct 26th)

Turonian 2900 M(61 MMBBL best estimate)16.1 days (Oct 29th)

Cenomanian 3100 M(81 MMBBL best estimate)17.2 days (Oct 30th)

Albian 3400 M(60 MMBBL best estimate)18.8 days (Oct 31)

For those who like to point things out, yes there are some variables I did not fold in and there is lots of room for error. I just estimated a time line based on the info available in the NSAI report, the press releases and some posts on this board speculating on the drilling timeline.

---

From an operations perspective, what happens after they hit the first formation / what happens as they hit each successive formation? How long will it be until they know they have hit oil?

Is anyone playing the options (straddles, strangles) side of this?

Ah, being in the black is nice.

Interesting article on the changing energy production outlook due to technological advances. While researching Ray Leonard, he seemed to be a big Peak Oil enthusiast. Perhaps he didn't take these advances into account.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/26/business/energy-environment/new-technologies-redraw-the-worlds-energy-picture.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&src=recg

Edit: mentions West Africa production on the second page

[This message has been edited by kayakag (edited 10/27/2011 9:34a).]

Thanks for sharing kayak. Great article! Who said we are running out of natural resources again??

And for the record, RL never said we were running out of oil, just that the rate of oil production would decline (i.e. easy to find oil).

This article clearly illustrates the development of new "straws". Regardless, it's refreshing to know that our dependance on ME oil will reduce in the next few decades. I wonder what OPEC will do.....

The anticipation of the HDY drilling results are similar to Tullow in my mind. Hopefully they play out the same because Tullow continues to have success offshore in West Africa.

One key thing to note is how quickly Tullow was able to find oil and commercialize it with the design, installation and start-up of the FPSO on a super fast track schedule. Those fields have had extremely great drilling results and I think you'll see another FPSO or TLP out there in Ghana in a few years.

http://homepage.ufp.pt/biblioteca/WEBTurdiDepSystems/Pages/Page2.htm


A sustained general market rally into an announcement is exactly what shorts don't need.

Not certain whether we will hear results of Subu-1 (current well) then Baraka-1 (2nd well) or whether both will be publicized after Baraka.

Tute ownership at 44.7% as of 9/30...probably higher now.

Another comparable firm with West african success:

http://www.kosmosenergy.com/strategy.html

Article related to general outlook/strategies:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-25/oil-s-hottest-race-from-kenya-to-greenland-spurs-record-quest.html?cmpid=yhoo

Very strong move today in excess of the broader market on very heavy volume. Gotta believe a few shorts closed out their positions. Still plenty left out there to help even the smallest good news turn into an explosive day upward...

That is one hell of a success rate. Why aren't the big boys jumping on this?




Also, thanks for the info, 3rd. I'm up 1K so far!

[This message has been edited by kayakag (edited 10/28/2011 8:59a).]

Somebody give me a guess on what this thing does when favorable drilling news is released.

quote:

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That is one hell of a success rate. Why aren't the big boys jumping on this?

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They are. Institutional ownership has grown tremendously over the last year alone. I would say Blackrock is one of the "big boys". One of the biggest in the world.

EDIT: After re-reading I am guessing you are talking about the big boys in the industry. No telling who has approached Hyper, but it seems to me that the Exxons, Chevrons etc. of the world would wait until resources were proven to enter into the picture. I could be wrong...I have zero industry experience.

[This message has been edited by Charles Bronson (edited 10/28/2011 10:04a).]

quote:

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Somebody give me a guess on what this thing does when favorable drilling news is released.

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I dont see how it wouldnt be a short squeeze of epic proportions. The scenario I imgine seems almost too good to be true though. Almost like being up 20-3 vs. OSU or up 18 at the half vs. Arky.

[This message has been edited by Charles Bronson (edited 10/28/2011 11:23a).]

quote:

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Why aren't the big boys jumping on this?

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Good question, that is one good reason for skepticism.

The majors are in west Africa and will continue to migrate there. Chevron and then anadarko and hess all making moves. Market projections for the region are outstanding.

As for this Guinea concession and many other virgin areas with a reputation for Political instability...I think it was seen as too much of a risk. I guess they figured why not let someone else invest in those third world countries and cut deals with shady Africans. Early on HDY was a pump and dump equity run by a stock promoter with no hope of exploiting the contract.ROG was in upheaval with massacres making international headlines... Majors knew this and were producing elsewhere meeting shareholder demands.

Then came RL with the help of shareholder petitions (led by one shareholder in particular), and then came political stability in ROG. Then came blackrock and tute ownership quickly rose from 2% to 30%, now pushing 50%.

Over the course of this year before Ray sewed up the Jasper, there was a loi and other major bids (details unpublicized), however with nothing proven and little infrastructure in the region these bids were weak. With no producing properties HDY was seen as the little man at the table by noble and others.

Blackrock and Ray chose to drill then see what offers came their way. A decision very much in shareholders favor IMO.

I personally think the traditional irrational biz culture of africa is fading. With globalization, the proliferation of information, and advances in offshore tech, the commercial opportunities are impossible to deny. I think these countries are beginning to realize they will continue to suck unless they can encourage capital investment internationally and exploit their natural resources.

HDY got to where they are much much quicker than a major would have and they stuck with ROG through thick and thin mainly because there were not other options. Its all worked out great and the reason they have gone from $.89 when I came on board to $5.30 now without a drop of oil....much more room for longterm growth if HDY has just some of the same success that Tullow and Kosmos have had.

We will know before Christams!


[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 10/28/2011 11:25a).]

Thanks again 3rd coast. Your optimism of the region's (political) success is greater than mine, but my research of Africa is mainly centered around the Congo. By all means, the Congo has morphed back towards tribal civilization, while corruption and violence are the norm.

I hope that once royalties start to come in they'll have a stabilizing effect, but who knows with that part of the world! Good luck!

[This message has been edited by kayakag (edited 10/28/2011 12:21p).]

The people have a long way to go. They don't know economy, only fresh water and bags of rice in most regions.

I'm hopeful that elected leadership is realizing international investment is the only means to meet their own selfish objectives and provide some type of infrastructure for their people.

From a PR perspective AFG bodes well for HDY
[URL] http://www.afguinea.org/index.php?q=the_foundation/leadership [/URL]






[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 10/28/2011 4:13p).]

[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 10/29/2011 12:48a).]