Debating whether to hop out now and try to time a down dip or wait until tomorrow to see what happens

Jumped this morning at 4.65 thinking that would be the top. Hoping for a dip this week before 3d report.

Really kicking myself...

Holy crap $4.88 and climbing...wish i hadnt tried to play Mr. Day Trader this morning. Shorts have got to be feeling the pressure. I bet the $5 mark will put the heat on significantly.

At least you didnt part with shares at $4.40 Tony

[This message has been edited by Charles Bronson (edited 7/19/2011 2:48p).]

$4.94 and still strong. On days like today, one has to wonder what everyone else (institutions) know that is a force behind this run up.

Possibly what was said at the GHS conference yesterday? I looked for the link for a replay of it but couldn't find it. Anyone know if there was anything new announced? I know there is a tender for deepwater 3d surveying but that's it.

I dont know, but the market didn't seem to react positively yesterday after his presentation. I am not an experienced trader, but I am wondering if the positive movement is due to the fact that the coup attempt failed? I thought it would have been played as the re-introduction of political instability/uncertainty in a country with a shaky past, but apparently an attempted coup at the house of the president is cause for a 12+% spike??? Perhaps a big buyer or two liked what they heard yesterday when Ray was talking about how the current share price should be closer to $30, triggering much of todays momentum. Surely a lot of it was short covering.

This stock is completely unpredictable imo. I would be very careful trying to trade it.

[This message has been edited by Charles Bronson (edited 7/19/2011 3:14p).]

$30 would be an excellent share price

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-gainnyse-gainer.html

16 million shares shorted since April 01, the majority of those shares will be red above $5

Hmmm, I tried unloading half my position at 4.95 but no one bought it... and yet the market closed on a price above what I listed.

Now I'm debating holding for the long-haul and just seeing where this can go above $5 (hopefully tomorrow).

I wonder if there will be a downtick from here on out.

Market closed at $4.92. I am showing $4.95 as the HOD.

I know it's all a guessing game, but i am really curious as to what price range would realistically trigger a short squeeze. I have thought for the past few months upper $4's and low $5's but i wonder if it would take a bit more to really induce a panic on that side? I am considering taking a hit on my shares sold earlier this am and buying back in tomorrow am b/c this feels very similar to the beginning of the crazy run up 6+ months ago and i do not want to miss out on the action. sell low buy high baby. the stock market can be very humbling. this is my second piss poor trade in a row, both times i was overly confident that the market would react negatively to early morning news of political instability and the price ended up shooting upward for some reason. won't be a third time for me.

[This message has been edited by Charles Bronson (edited 7/19/2011 4:37p).]

Keep in mind, Ray already informed us that risked reserves are going to go up. The NSAI report will
only confirm by how much.

Today we saw the defeat of instability/risk. No doubt it will be harder to attempt a coup going forward.

As much as I would like to attribute price action to yesterdays presentation or todays events, I think it is more likely the same story with MMs dictating the direction of the session than
it is anything else.

As far as short squeezes go, that depends on how much of the short interest is over-leveraged retail vs everything else. I still see the price as a loaded spring that has been compressed by short interest, the question is how hard or soft will that spring release.

If this was me in my Halo days with the rocket launcher it would all be over:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81HIyH9EhcE&feature=player_embedded

The general trends involving cheap technology, collaboration, and information sharing promote democracy in these types of places. The ROG people know they are sitting on valuable resources and will soon learn the only way to benefit is from international investment...our investment. ROG leaders are fully aware.

enthusiasm will be tempered when it is back at $4.25 within the week

As posted earlier on this thread, I am in for $4.10. It's a free roll from here on out for me. If really bad news hits or market tanks, I'll look to get out near my purchase price. Otherwise, I'm going to let it ride and keep my fingers crossed for the next 3 months.

I agree that if we can break past a $5 threshold, a covering of short positions could help keep the upward momentum going. A general market rally when the budget crisis gets sorted (which will happen) in the next few weeks may help as well. It's easy for shares to go up when the market is up over 1% on any given day.

quote:

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enthusiasm will be tempered when it is back at $4.25 within the week

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Are you going to disclose a short position?
OR
Are you going to chime in as an expert hindsight paper trader if we do indeed fall back to 4.25?

page 7

quote:

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Blue-eyes
posted 2:09p, 07/13/11



I bought HDY at $4.20 yesterday

sold the Aug $4 calls for $.65 today

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Why not just buyback your calls :P

Completely unpredictable...could run up to $7+ again in a matter of days (as it did in January) just as soon as it could drop back down to mid to low $4's imo. Will be interesting to see what happens today. I would give anything for a chance at $4.25 though

Seeing the run it had yesterday gives me hope that a big runup is coming... I'm in at 3.98, but went ahead and shuffled some things around so that I'm in a position to double down if it drops to a number I like.

nice move blue

Looks like it may continue to shoot up today.

$5 is an interesting support level...we'll see if it can break through and hold

Hit $5! Finally!

FYI, Yall know that $5 was where HDY issued additional shares to fund operations.

This was the "dilution dip" I referenced in the OP. I was expecting price go up based on more than enough funding acquired while still keeping the full 77% block ownership. Shorts obviously had other expectations.

I think the market has finally fully absorbed this dilution and am hopeful shorts will soon get squeezed.

Staying long.

The momentum continues. I think when the 3D report is released it can keep this on the uptick and really put pressure on the shorts.

Any chance we get another dip before 3D? I hate to have money sitting on the sidelines while it goes up, but I also hate to buy while something is already spiking.

I'm with you Ulrich. Not sure when to get back in. This is such a tough stock for identifying entry/exit points.

To put things in long term investment perspective:

Right before HDY had the money to drill, price was hovering around $6.50.

Since then they have acquired a drillship at a great rate on 2 wells, hired more talent, and tendered additional deep-water 3D work...all with some cash still left in the bank. Now we have a much more shorts (obligated buyers) on the sidelines as well.

Blackrock bought more, a lot more at $5.

I've about decided to buy when I get home from work.

First world problem: the stock I already own keeps going up when I want to buy more.

I would advise everyone to wait until tomorrow night to buy... I just bought, which means it will tank tomorrow.

how did you buy after hours? relatively new to investing, sorry if this is a dumb question.

LOL Ulrich, I feel your pain man. That kinda stuff seems to always happen to me!

Charles, I use Fidelity online. I can put in the order at night, and it will buy in the morning when the markets open. The price has a chance of changing somewhat between when you place the order and when it goes through, but in my handful of trades it has never been a noticeable difference.

There is some actual after-hours trading that goes on, but it's my understanding that that is usually institutional-type stuff.

[This message has been edited by Ulrich (edited 7/21/2011 8:29a).]

Cool

I am in a pickle. After selling low ($4.40) the other day I am trying to find the right spot to get back in (Have been in since $1.66) so as not to miss out on what could be a pretty good run up. Debating whether or not to bite the bullet and enter now around $5.15 or see if I can get in lower. All i know is that with each passing day the odds are less in my favor and my dilemma grows with 3D on deck. Who knows though...i thought an attempted assassinated on the Guinean president with RPG's ripping through his house would be seen as a negative by the market...anything but a 13% INCREASE in price...so maybe 3D wont have the shock and awe affect i am expecting. If i could kick my own ass i would.

[This message has been edited by Charles Bronson (edited 7/21/2011 10:06a).]