Unimpressed with the management team is the understatement of the year. They are horrific and grossly overpaid.

Htown ....I recommended you buy real estate...solid investment and I can help!

Ahh, thanks Click. Had my timeline and all the bad press screwed up in my head.

there are two ways to play this badboy:
1. All or nothing
2. momemtum trading

Was talking to my friend last night and suggested to him to sell half his share next time it hits $3. Personally, based on everything I've read, this stock is destined for failure. It's hard to support a company when they are constantly burning cash and missing deadlines.

Just placed my first options order ever. Waiting to see if my buy order for Jan 2013 $3 calls gets filled or not. If this thing hits oil, then $3 will be a joke. If it strikes out, then at least I didn't have as much, money on the table.

Can someone with more options experience chime in to let me know what they think about that "strategy"?

And, for posterity's sake, let me reiterate how much I despise htown's posts. That is all.

how many contracts did you buy? What was the price per and the commission?

piag94

I agree that failure is seen in those that mismanage cash and deadlines but exploration/test wells in the O&G industry is a different animal, you cannot set those same standards, but you can when this company is in the development stage of their asset since they can gauge what to expect and assess their costs/well on the basis of the Sabu well. Plus, some of the setbacks were due to the contractor, not HDY. Right now it is too premature to call things a failure.

boyz,
I agree. I said it was "destined" for failure. When it comes to this casino, if you wait to sell ANY stock after it becomes a failure vs. looking at everything that has occurred over time then selling, you'll be broke real fast. As I've stated before, you're either going to NOT sell regardless and wait it out, OR look at the % of a nice gain or a total loss and make your decision based on the company as a whole. Either could happen.

Look at the situation however you want but, as stated many times before...if we hit, it's game on...if we miss, it's game over.

That being said, I am not to optimistic at this point.

When you have a large outcome spread, like in this case, options have good risk profiles relatively speaking. With HDY, holding stock and buying calls may have close downside loss(assuming dry hole), but the upside on calls is exponentially higher.

As for everyone bashing MGMT, you clearly know little about drilling and less about the previous HDY mgmt.

If Ray and Co are guilty of anything it is posting a best case drilling timeline originally. However, this aggressive time line was the only way to drill (2) wells with the cash available....its simple math. It wasnt unrealistic, just very ambitious.

Also, the $250k day rate Ray got was a major discount, about half of what that drillship could go for. To my surprise it even arrived on time.

As someone who provides subsea drilling equipment to rigs in the GOM and gets rig updates daily I can honestly say 2 things:
1) The delays experienced are not that uncommon, in some cases I have seen much worse delays on much higher day rates.
2) Drilling delays have everything to do with engineering and geological factors and very little to do with mgmt once the contractual arrangements have been made.

The major difference is that the customers I deal with have enough cash to weather delays and are diversified at other well sites.

Ray is a geologist trying to prove the value of the asset. Blackrock wanted HDY to keep the full 77% and prove the value of the asset rather than making a cheaper deal...so did shareholders.

This aggressive strategy of "going at it alone" has been widely publicized and known for a long time. Everyone is just now being critical because they are both ignorant about subsea operations and do not know how to control their emotions.

that's why some of these companies go public. They need big cash and the only way is to go public and let others fund their venture. VC's won't touch an all or nothing. During this time, mgmt is making some VERY nice coin. If it goes belly up, then the mgmt walks away with some nice cash, while the "investor" gets nada. I am not specifically talking about HDY, but there have been numerous companies that have written the blueprint for this type of action.

I have contemplated several times selling for a small gain just to get out. I only have about 8k invested and when I got in I was comfortable losing it all given the oppurtunity to make a substantial gain.

04,
That happens alot. You get emotionally attached to a stock based on the "big hit". So folks become married to a position vs. understanding what your goal is. If you couldn't care less about losing your money, then ride it out. If you are one of the ones that sell when you hit a certain % gain, then you might reevaluate. As stated before, I have no position, but when this thing makes another run on big volume AND if I was in the black, I'd sell.

Ray's salary is not "very nice" coin in CEO land....quite the opposite.

Shares and option compensation are tied to performance. Certain price thresholds have to be breached and held for Ray to really cash out.

Do some research.

I work in well planning in the GOM...well stated thirdcoast.

third,
If you read my post, you can see I said I wasn't specifically talking about HDY. You are obviously very educated about HDY and work in the industry. I have no clue about the industry but understand how penny stocks work and how mgmt plays the public. If this thing fails, Ray will be compensated nicely. That's the way the game works.

Understood, just pointing to the compensation landscape of HDY. Ray has much more to lose with failure both career wise and financially (considering the performance compensation)

It is all public info.



[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 2/8/2012 10:37a).]

Pardon my ignorance. Regarding the copying of the 8k into the 10q, does that mean that the recent selling of the 10m shares is the same event discussed in each document? By copying and putting it out again are they saying that they will have to sell more shares sometime soon?

BT1395,
Can you answer my question?

Bexar, the 10m shares I don't think were even mentioned in the 8-K

[This message has been edited by ClickClack (edited 2/8/2012 11:32a).]

quote:

---

how many contracts did you buy? What was the price per and the commission?

---

My order (which still hasn't filled yet) was for 6 contracts. Total commission will be $14.

what price?

quote:

---

what price?

---

$0.60

$.6 is below bid. You need to up it to about $.65 or $.7 to get someone to sell. Or wait.

It's below bid now...was at bid when I placed the order this morning.

Still wondering if this is a good strategy or not (thx to 3rd for the quick thoughts)...

The actual number wasn't really the issue
The timeline was
Jan30 say we need more funds
Feb6 sell new shares
Feb7 release 10q with "forward" looking statement saying we need more funds
In looking up the dates I think I answered my own question though. It said that the 10q was released on feb 7 with an effective date of Dec 31, 2011. The "forward" looking statement can thus apply to the feb6 issuance and does not mean that they will have to sell more new shares.

so your commissions are $14 for BOTH ways? Wow, that's pretty cheap for options. What do you use?

FYI, didn't finish in the green yesterday third. I've read and read and read about this stock and company, the patience is running out for a lot of investors.

Please sell!

I never said it would finish in the green, and that is irrelevant since htown was too much of a p**** to take a stance PRIOR to the outcome.

I couldnt care less who loses patience.

Sell your shares, or better yet short it or buy puts!

Quit hedging your emotions by whining/trolling here and still holding long.

In a nutshell:

All signs point to HDY making a deal giving up X% for $Y or Z barrels of production elsewhere a day. As we all have known was inevitable from day one.

Those variables are in large part contingent on Subu 1 logging results verifying the seismic data.

That is where HDY stands to date. Take it or leave it.

If a deal is announced with cashflow or another JV operator is brought to the table, then this stock will transition from the speculation phase to the valuation phase....2 very different landscapes.

With regards to risk other than dry hole widely discussed, the ROG must still honor the terms in the PSC contract. Nothing indicates HDY is in danger there, but it still remains a consideration to be monitored.

my options filled

I've got 11 contracts for the June 2012 $3 call @ $.40 each

I've got 39 contracts for the June 2012 $4 call @ $.30 each

basically, $1,610 in a bet that the logging yields favorable results

IMO, at this point (late in the drilling stages), you're better off buying the June 2012 calls than the stock itself. Pretty much this is a boom/bust scenario with backing off of the 2nd well and relying on the results of the first well.

I agree blue.

Also, a strangle strategy might also be ideal.

turrible day

wait for an 25/30% intraday dump on heavy volume and jump back in. This should track back to about $1.70.