Thirdcoast, what you're saying sounds good, but what makes you so confident that they hit oil? I'm not familiar at all with this company and have just been glancing at your posts and those of others over the past few weeks.

Short answer- The geology of the oil province, success rates of the region, and expertise/experience of mgmt.

Do more than glance, do some DD. I have posted several links and it is not hard to research.

We will know how many wells are going to be drilled and other details before drilling. You may want to wait till this info is public and more accurate success probabilities can be calculated. You will eliminate some risk, but likely pay a premium for it.

Dont know exactly what we are going to hear 4-27 at 10am, but I hope it is solid information on an aggressive shallow drilling campaign. The big deepwater prospects are longer term objectives that will almost certainly involve a major.

At this low price, getting bought out before drilling is also a real possibility, but mgmt has not yet showed signs of entertaining this idea.

I misplaced my crystal ball, and I certainly dont have any information available to me that is not already public to all of you.

Looks like it is running up some ahead of the conference call on 4/27. Someone expects good news. A trader who got in at 4.00 or so like I did will consider selling some or all just before the CC, as stocks tend to pull back some after the actual news comes out, even good news. (note-does not apply to blockbuster surprise good news). A true believer will just stay in for the long haul.

Thirdcoast, I'm aware that you don't have a crystal ball. However, I wanted to get your thoughts on what you would say the risk/reward is for purchasing the stock prior to the investor call on Wednesday versus afterward. I've read some of the links you have posted and I like the idea of taking the risk and picking up some HDY.

Well in the past selling HDY into news would have worked out best.

recent examples:
2d seismic data release- the news was positive however it appeared the market had very high expectations

LOI on drillship- the market likely expected signed contract rather than letter of intent

Fund raising at $5- looked like more trades were made on news of dilution rather than drilling becoming more of a reality

This is a speculative small cap. It has a large retail bloc with high expectations and it has attracted some price manipulation because of that. That being said, the latest short interest data should be posted soon. I assume many shorts have covered and will continue to cover as drilling becomes more of a reality and institutional ownership keeps rising.

The question of the week is what will we hear 4-27 at 10AM?
At the very worst drilling plans fluff, at best signed contracts and concrete plans on an AGGRESSIVE drilling campaign where accurate success probabilities can be floated around.

A buyout completely hinges on the pps bids that get thrown around. I dont expect serious discussion on a buyout 4-27 but I cant eliminate that possibility trading this low.

Obviously past performance is not an indication of future results.

Lets see if we run up big tomorrow, show modest strength, or decline.

I'm not expecting anything earth shattering from the CC this week. Ray doesn't seem like the type to reveal big news at these things, but getting into specific drilling plans would be good, and about all I could personally realistically hope for. Still hoping for some type of surprise and that he sticks it to any shorts still out there, but not expecting it based on past updates given by Ray. Also wouldn't be surprised if we began to descend back down towards $4 on weak to good news. Only great, unexpected news will get us on a good climb imo. I am waiting more for 3D news in/around June, potential JVP, or even unexpected buyout news at some point between now and drilling.

[This message has been edited by Charles Bronson (edited 4/25/2011 2:36p).]

If there is big news that has actually been settled Ray WILL release it. Based on my experience ray would rather under promise and over deliver. Previous mgmt consistently did the opposite. HDY is now moving out of the realm of promises, the market is expecting more delivery the closer we get to oct.

Ray is a geologist who approaches this project like an engineer, not a small cap stock promoter.

We will see soon enough.

[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 4/25/2011 2:58p).]

Solid news will probably cause me to pick up a few hundred shares on the next drop... and it seems volatile enough to bounce around some more before it takes off on news of profitable productoin.

If there are no pleasant surprises in the wednesday conference, i would wait for it to drift down around $4 or so and load up.

Nice after hours paint job down to $4.31, what a joke.

[This message has been edited by Charles Bronson (edited 4/25/2011 3:29p).]

quote:

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If there is big news that has actually been settled Ray WILL release it.

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I would expect a PR in the morning if anything, but I would doubt he would make a significant announcement on a settled deal during a CC. As much as I want big news, I am expecting a kind of general birds eye view of where everything stands, and a subsequent price drift. Please surprise me Ray...Let's at least get out of the $4's!

Would be awesome if he hinted at a few mid-majors or majors trying to buy them out, but i realize that's probably a pipedream.

[This message has been edited by Charles Bronson (edited 4/26/2011 1:38p).]

Dp

[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 4/26/2011 2:33p).]

An official PR pre market or verbal update on contractual agreements in the CC with official PR released afterhours....makes little difference. 4-27 is the date the market expects to hear/read it.

It's not about what surprises bronson but what the market is surprised by. As I pointed out the market expects concrete logistics and will be disappointed by fluff, LOIs or any delays.

The market already knows investment in deepwater 3d is a considerable option which indicates outside interest. Name dropping another company interested in the deepwater prospects would be an example of positive news, but not necessarily a "surprise". A surprise also doesn't consist of the manner in which Ray divulges info contrary the type of personality any one person thinks he has.

A surprise consists of material information good or bad that was completely unforeseen by the market. At this point in the game I think a surprise is unlikely.

As I mentioned earlier HDY is moving out of the realm of promises and into delivery. For this reason I think previous reactions to releases carry less weight.

Logistical information from which more accurate success probabilities can be calculated OR fluff with promises of updates later.

Click Here For 4-27 10AM Webcast
OR
Dial 480-629-9725 at least 10 minutes before the call.


[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 4/26/2011 4:48p).]

Link for 10am CC...

http://www.videonewswire.com/event.asp?id=78171

Oops, didn't see link above

No premarket PR, but also doesn't seem to be very high expectations on the nature of the CC this morning.

Ill try to post a recording of the CC for those that missed it.

Good CC, but nothing really new. Wouldn't be surprised if we drift down to $4 over the next few days/weeks. But then again, nothing would surprise me with this stock in the short term either way. Not about the short term with this stock though.

If it gets down to around 4 I might take a small position in my IRA.

I will be buying as much as my cash savings will allow (wish it was more at the moment) if it goes back to $4.

Not sure what C Bronson is talking about. Nothing “new” with regards to official PRs being released (contracts, 3d reports, ect) but plenty of NEW updated details if you know what you are listening for.

Quick run down:
Overall I thought it was just good. They are on schedule with no rush and plenty of cash. I especially like how he stressed that the short term price action had little bearing on the long-term value and that he thought HDY was currently “severely undervalued” an opinion he has expressed in the past and been right on every time. He also stressed the financial well-being of the company which is where most of the critics point to considering the company has yet to post earnings. Finally, he stressed the good standing relationship with the ROG and addressed political concerns. Most of the above was already understood by existing longs but good for new comers to hear.

It will be interesting to see what happens over the next several weeks as the market digests this info. A few points below:
-2 well project to start no earlier than Oct 1st. Two different play types
-Signed drillship contract expected early May
-3d revealed new geology with higher success potential in the southern portion
-NSAI 3d report and well locations expected to be announced in June.
-3d on deepwater pending partnership approval, likely kicked off by year end
-Its in ROG’s best interest to wait till HDY proves reserves before making any outside tenders
-When asked about domestic diversification, Ray stressed that mgmt’s competitive advantage involved complex international experience.


too long to stream, try this link:
click to download audio file


[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 4/27/2011 3:52p).]

Short interest growth has slowed significantly, but still a large amount short (more than I expected). This is primarily the reason price is currently as low as it is IMO.



I look at this pps as a loaded spring in need of a catalyst to squeeze shorts. If the signed rig contract doesnt do it in the next couple weeks, the 3d data/drilling locations in June should do it.

The market has to settle at a price somewhere between hitting oil and a dry hole before drilling. $4 appears to be a solid base and with as much short interest as we still see, I think there is more potential for upside than downside between now and then.

Well, it's below $4 now. Anyone think it'll drop anymore?

No telling what price will do in the short term. I doubt shorts will stay open into the June 3D release.

I wont be able to buy more personally till about mid-may, therefore it is likely price will be back up over $5 by then.

Expecting rig contract PR the first half of May.

The 3D report from NSAI is the most significant PR on the horizon expected in June. This is where success probabilities go up and geological value becomes much clearer/reliable. There were good hints on this data in the CC.

Current prices now are bargain IMO

thirdcoast,

You are obviously a fan of this company but it seems as if your interest is something more than a person who owns a few hundred or even thousand shares. Are you related to one of the executives or large individual shareholders? Do you work for or with a investment advisor/hedge fund that has a large investment in this company? A little disclosure may be nice for the other posters.

quote:

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Well, it's below $4 now. Anyone think it'll drop anymore?

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Like thirdcoast said, this stock is pretty unpredictable in the short term. It is subject to significant manipulation by traders. For that reason, i would personally stay away from margin at this particular level. Over the past few weeks it seems like there has been pretty strong support at $4, but you never know. At the risk of being called a pumper though, I would personally view anything under $6 as a bargain at this point if you have the free cash. Barring anything crazy beyond our control, I am expecting a pretty significant run in the months leading up to the drill date of early October.

In the interest of full disclosure, I have been in HDY for a significant amt (for me) since Sept 2010 @ $1.78. Bought more at $6.05 in early 2011.

A nice lil Friday afternoon rally would be nice!

[This message has been edited by Charles Bronson (edited 4/29/2011 12:40p).]

quote:

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A little disclosure may be nice for the other posters.

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My share count recently went into 5 digits with my last purchase at $4.25. I continue to add at these levels when I can with disposable income.

As I stated most of my position was accumulated around $.90 and then in the $2.50 range.

I know individual shareholders with hundreds of thousands of shares. That being said my investment is based on my DD not the fact that I personally know several shareholders with more skin in the game than myself.
Posters should invest based on their own DD not because of how many shares others own, as with any investment or trade.


[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 4/29/2011 1:20p).]

Any reason why HDY has gotten beaten up so bad this week? I was thinking about picking up some more while it's below 4.

No fundamental (why) reason. The company is well capitalized and on schedule for drilling.

This goes back to the technical (how) reasons for short term price action I have mentioned in the past....small cap manipulation.

I won't be able to buy more till mid-late May. I hope it is still a bargain then.

I think there is a good short squeeze opportunity with the 3d release in June.

Down 7% to $3.81 today. Is now the time to buy HDY?

I hopped in at $3.88, but I'm playing this stock as a short-term not a long-term.

I really hope the LOI with Jasper doesn't/didn't fall through. Don't like seeing the price plummet with high volume like it did yesterday...and it's getting close to the deadline.

Down another 5% to $3.61 today. I might just wait for the announcement in June and, if positive, jump in then. At the rate things are going, the price could jump 25% on a positive announcement and you could still pick up shares under $4.

This thing is getting hammered. I've been reading up a lot on the company and am thinking about jumping in.

How low is thing gonna go? 3?

quote:

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I really hope the LOI with Jasper doesn't/didn't fall through. Don't like seeing the price plummet with high volume like it did yesterday...and it's getting close to the deadline.

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What happens if this LOI falls through?

[This message has been edited by Diet Cokehead (edited 5/5/2011 1:11p).]

If the LOI falls thru it better be related to something mechanical with the drillship, in which case there are back up plans in place.
If it has to do with contractual terms or anything else, that is a huge BAD sign and I will probably look to exit.

I think it is very unlikely it falls through. There was a slight delay after reviewing the 3d and mgmt switched from semi-sub rig to drillship (good sign imo). The contract is likely being wrapped up as we speak. I expect it before or around mid-may.

That being said, the 3d report from NSAI is really what is likely to "beat" expectations in June.

quote:

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This thing is getting hammered. I've been reading up a lot on the company and am thinking about jumping in.

How low is thing gonna go? 3?

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If there is no announcement on signed contract with drill ship tomorrow, i predict we could see $3 or sub $3 tomorrow. The whole sector is down, but if the LOI falls through this week or next, and there isn't a damn good reason for it, i can't guess how low this will go...maybe $2 or lower??? A lot of people are very nervous right now. Seems like the perfect storm with the market behaving like it is. I have learned my lesson to not get greedy and to stay away from margin. Unless things pick up tomorrow, it's going to suck for me.

So basically if an announcement of a signed contract occurs tomorrow, then it would probably be an excellent time to get some shares for a low price. If no announcement, brace yourself for some hurt.