Sold HDY at 3.19, made a little in MILL over the last week and am back in on HDY (foolishly?) at 2.59

[This message has been edited by ClickClack (edited 2/2/2012 1:07p).]

Some of these jackasses need to stop setting their 200 share stop limits at things that the institutions can manipulate. Watching the share price drop $.10 because a couple of idiots want to save $50 is annoying.

we're so freaking close, i can taste it

great day for hdy, only stock I own that is down today.

we're so freaking close, i can taste it
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taste what???? The secondary?

quote:

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great day for hdy, only stock I own that is down today.

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You are truly, truly annoying. Speculative plays are for big boys and girls. You clearly don't fit that criteria.

What do you guys expect the valuation of this company to be if this works out? What production is expected?

It is really hard to tell what they are going to do... large joint venture? Sell after proving out the value of the asset?



[This message has been edited by harge57 (edited 2/4/2012 11:10a).]

I've also been thinking harder lately what the scenario would be even if what we're hoping for happens. So let's say they find some oil-bearing sands. So, they prove there is at least some hydrocarbon there, but there would still be so much more work to do to figure out if it's economically viable to develop the asset (maybe another exploration well, appraisal wells, etc.)

But maybe this exploration well will prove enough to be able to sell the asset or, hopefully, they'll be able to get enough info from it to make it easier to get more money and know if it's an area they want to pursue or not.

I got into this thinking once the results of this well are known, we would know if this stock was heading to $40 or $1. It's going to continue dragging out, though, I think. Even if this well turns out the way we hoped, there are still a lot of obstacles.

Even as a former broker it confounds me that they're issuing shares for $3 and it's obviously going to be fairly well subscribed due to the warrants (which also means large investors see an upside), and yet it's trading well below the new issue price.

Madness.

So I should back up the truck and load it up?

what say the technicals? It's tested and held $2.30 about 10 times today.

I put in an order for 50 lots of June 2012 $3 calls at $.40

hope it gets filled

This first well may very well yield commercial quantities of oil (100+ Million Barrels), however the strategy discussed was that Ray would go for the highest probability of success play, rather than the shallow site with most reserve potential.

IMO, proving a hydrocarbon system exists with the confirmation of oil shows and verifying the 3D seismic data with extensive logging would be considered "success" at this stage. Im hopeful the market reaction reflects that if oil is found but not commercial production on that specific exploratory well.

We know the super giant discoveries are in the ultra deep and would likely take the resources of a major operator. That success is what could take HDY to the $50-100 range several years out assuming shareholders are not bought out, which is more likely.

Proving with oil shows and verifying seismic data in the shallow very much improves bids and makes any "transformational deal" much better for shareholders.

A loose example would be like finding large abundant kimberlite veins in a major mining operation on a virgin lease. With hard proof of diamond potential, the value of the lease goes up and bidding strengthens.

So if HDY hits pay and wants to stay solo with the full 77%, they will issue less shares at a higher price in theory assuming Sabu1 is not dry, and they drill another exploratory well.

If they drill through (4) geological zones and post a "dry hole" PR with "no significant leads or resource potential"...look out below. Wait for a dead cat bounce to get out and re-group.



[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 2/6/2012 2:29p).]

good info...nice bounce in the late trading

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/120207/hdy10-q.html;_ylt=Ajcd3LnOhuLx2GrU673Tf.eiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTIwbWlscjRpBG1pdANXaWRlIFF1b3RlcyBNb2R1bGUEcG9zAzYEc2VjA01lZGlhUmVjZW50UXVvdGVzUG9ydGZvbGlvc1dpZGU-;_ylg=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3

quote:

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Our exploration plan in 2011 contemplated a two well exploration program using the same drilling rig, beginning with the Sabu-1 well, and continuing soon thereafter with a second well. After consideration of the suitability and cost performance of that rig and the effect of the delays and increased cost on our liquidity and capital resources, we have decided to defer commencement of the next exploration well. Our ability to drill a second well will depend on obtaining additional cash resources through equity or debt financings, sales of additional interests in the Concession, or through other means. If we sell additional interests in the Concession, our percentage interest will decrease. Although we have been successful in raising capital and in entering into a key participation arrangement with Dana, we have no firm commitments for additional capital resources. The terms of any such arrangements, if made, are unknown and may not be advantageous for us.

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That'll leave a mark.

Panic sell tomorrow -- nearing $2ish?

I've got an after hours sell order at $2.53 of 2/3 my position. So far about .5% of my order has filled.

Too many times I've had strong convictions to sell this and haven't. I'm hoping I get a chance to buy these shares back ~$2.

What a disaster. This company sucks. Looks like a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money. The single worst investment of my life. F HDY.

Great Post from another board...

I see damn near a 52 week low...I see more shares getting printed and shorted...I see management wanting more shares to print...and more for themselves(need more since the SP is so f-ing low)...I see a well that has cost over 100 million and counting...I see a well that was supposed to take 30-45 days now going on 4 MONTHS....I see we are 10 days into a well that was supposed to begin(again) only a couple of hundred meters over the payzones....I DO NOT see a PR reporting progress(as we were told there would be)...I see a high priced management team that has hung retail out to dry...I see HDY spending 1 million a day....I see HDY burning through limited resourses...I see RL taking a 10 million gamble that could back fire...I see another RL rah-rah speech coming and people saying how he is the guy that will get this done...I see the JE as a ship that should never drill another well(at least for HDY,if it doesnt cause our demise first)...I see a replay of the nov-dec debacle happening(hope im wrong there)...I see a concession that needs the right company to make it happen and Im not sure that RL and all the peeps who left those "high paying jobs to come to little ole HDY" are the peeps who can accomplish this....I see too many peeps who love RL even though he outright defrauded the shareholder in nov-dec by with holding info from which others profited...

I see emotion and nothing new from that 10q that wasn't already publicized.

Everything in the near term still depends on proving and verifying oil leads in the concession vs a dry hole.

When the well is down and results are posted we will know.

A JV or any other deal is still contingent on logging results.

Htown, go open a capital one checking account, it earns 3x the national average!

Apparently a lot of morons are in this stock.

I read through the 10-Q, and there is NOTHING in there that wasn't already stated or known. Wow.

third, you are going to end up in a homeless shelter. Take the hdy-fogged glasses off.

He didn't say HDY was going to go to 40. All he said are the factors at play.

Seriously, put in a sell order for open tomorrow and go make your money back in another stock.

I thought you said you were going to stop whining at least until the Sabu well results are known.

Htown,
If HDY closes green tomorrow will you refrain from ever posting on this thread again?

Surely it wouldn't close green after that 10q bomb!...deal?

Htown can't sell guys... he's all in!

It's funny that there are so many people on here that aren't in touch with reality. The only guy who actually got it doesn't post anymore.
I won't post in this thread when hdy eclipses your original buy recommendation.....we got a long way to go.

So if your original buy point was in the 4s and you made the purchase because you thought it would increase to 10, 15, or higher if there was a discovery then what is the point of worrying if it goes lower before any results are released. Sure you could have gotten in at a lower pps but if the end result is the determining factor then that is still in play

htown, you're the only one that isn't. This entire adventure is about the end game, unless you're gambling on the swings in the mean time. Since you aren't, please stfu and wait for the end. You decided to play this, and in REALITY nothing has changed the end game possibilities.

Click, had HDY already acknowledged they would not drill #2 without additional funding? I guess I missed that or misunderstood something along the way.

HDY is actually up 1.18% in after hours trading right now.

I've still got 2500 shares after selling 5000 tonight. What I gathered from the 10q is that I'm unimpressed with the management team. I run an e&p company, albeit land, and I know there are good competent operators and there are poor operators. 2 of the worst operating companies I personally know of are run by former Exxon execs so a former high-paying job at a big company means nothing to me. I'm still betting on drilling results. Good drilling results with bad management can still yield a good profit if and when HDY gets taken over or sells. 52 employees with a quarterly overhead rate of ~$60k/employee is ridiculous for a company with no income drilling one well.

Even if this well is a bust, there may still be some value in their concession depending on the terms of it. I don't know if the share price will ever reflect that though.

Nom De Plume: Yes, they copied and pasted that whole statement about the second well from the 8-K which was filed on January 30th.

The whole forward looking section was just the 8-K from Jan. 30th inserted into the 10-Q.

For reference, here is the 8-K, made public Jan 30th. I would suggest at least skimming it (it's shorter and more to the point than the 10-Q)

http://investors.hyperdynamics.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1104659-12-4787

(If you remember, this was the day the SP plummeted. It was down because of the 8-K but then did a nosedive in the afternoon on the announcement of the sale of an additional 10m shares)


[This message has been edited by ClickClack (edited 2/7/2012 10:38p).]