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Time to buy HDY

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CPDAggie10
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5:50a, 10/29/11
AG
quote:
The people have a long way to go. They don't know economy, only fresh water and bags of rice in most regions.

I'm hopeful that elected leadership is realizing international investment is the only means to meet their own selfish objectives and provide some type of infrastructure for their people.


I live in Angola, working on startup and commissioning of an LNG facility here, and I could not agree anymore with this statement.

As for HDY, I am kicking myself for selling a couple weeks back around the 4.50 mark, expecting a pull back where I would jump back in. Still made a good return but it could have been that much sweeter. Still want to jump back in, hoping for a dip but I'm not sure if it is worth it to wait for a decline with a possible HUGE uptick any day now.

Still a relatively novice investor trying to learn. Does anyone else see there being a decline in the next week or so? Any suggestions?

Thirdcoast...thanks for all the great info on this thread. Keep it coming.
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LihaiAg06
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9:31a, 10/30/11
AG
I'm new myself to investing just as a disclaimer...

I do, however, see the price coming down in the next week along with the market in general. There should be another good opportunity to get it IMO.
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Nom de Plume
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9:46a, 11/1/11
AG
This thing trades like a 3x ETF.
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Sims
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9:48a, 11/1/11
AG
What are the chances any drilling results are held back until the market stops the current downswing?
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Phat32
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9:57a, 11/1/11
AG
Knew I should have set myself up for an average down at 5.20
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Josepi
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10:01a, 11/1/11
AG
Down 8% to 4.50 as of right now
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Phat32
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12:09p, 11/1/11
Nom de Plume
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1:51p, 11/1/11
AG
I doubled up this morning at 4.49 to get my average down. So far so good...only problem now is I've got enough shares it tests my pain tolerance.
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TxAg20
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2:22p, 11/1/11
AG
If offshore West Africa is anything like U.S. land, information about this first well has already started leaking out. Hopefully that't not what's causing this sell off.

[This message has been edited by TxAg20 (edited 11/1/2011 1:22p).]
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Nom de Plume
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2:28p, 11/1/11
AG
$4.79 and close to fully recovered. I hope the good news is hitting today.
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Phat32
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10:16a, 11/2/11
AG
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Sims
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10:26a, 11/2/11
AG
I was hoping for...

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ClickClack
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10:34a, 11/2/11
AG
More like,

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piag94
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2:40p, 11/2/11
AG
so there has been reports of little to no oil? Or are you just speculating?
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ClickClack
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3:03p, 11/2/11
AG
No, my point is they will be getting logging information and hopefully a core sample, since this is an exploration well. That will be the indicator. The picture above is a core sample.
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Phat32
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3:24p, 11/2/11
AG
in the deep ocean, wouldn't Sims' picture be a horrible result?
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Sims
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3:48p, 11/2/11
AG
By any standards under any circumstance it would be these days....But my sentiment stands.
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jm94
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4:41p, 11/2/11
AG
4.93 +0.27 +5.79%
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fahraint
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12:27a, 11/3/11
I'm not in HDY at this time....I am all cash, got stopped out on ***. As much as I like HDY, and as much as the fundamentals per 3rd coast are solid, the technical chart is not promising, and I look for a much lower entry.

[This message has been edited by fahraint (edited 2/17/2012 9:48a).]
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arson keg
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9:52a, 11/3/11
LOL at "technicals" for a company who is in the middle of drilling their first exploration well

technicals don't mean jack deek right now. if the logs/cores come back good, kapow! If they don't, crash.

waiting on technicals right now for THIS stock is pointless.
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fahraint
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11:10a, 11/4/11
heh heh....I not waiting on HDY for anything. I have interests other than HDY.....if it comes to a technical buy point for me, I'll enter, if not, I wont.

More power to ya, I hope it hits!

All cash for me right now.....watching and waiting..


[This message has been edited by fahraint (edited 11/4/2011 10:23a).]
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thirdcoast
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11:28a, 11/4/11
AG
Just a couple more graphics...






2 well locations

Colored lines represent geological zones. See top of page 18 for reference.

[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 11/6/2011 7:13p).]
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GaryClare
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9:21a, 11/5/11
AG
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Northside
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2:12p, 11/5/11
Sabu commenced on oct 13, and baraka was scheduled to commence immediately after. That said, I believe we wont hear anything on either well until both results are in. I also believe the share price will continue on the same pattern until this news is released. That said, it's only a matter of time before the share price starts approaching 4 again, or fahraints technical buy in point. However, it's almost been a month now, so results could come before fahraints target. Fahraint is mitigating his risk by waiting, but he could also miss out on a unpredictable pop. It's all about timing (which is tough to predict) and appetite for risk at this point. Fahraints not right or wrong, he's just taking a different approach. As for me, I'm in at 4.60 and have no plans of getting out until I hear something. If we reach 3:99, I'm gonna load up again... That's my opinion. 3rd, would u agree?
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fahraint
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10:43p, 11/5/11
^
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thirdcoast
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7:37p, 11/6/11
AG
I agree, but with the exception that 4 or sub 4 is possible not inevitable.

anyone can establish support and resistance in the charts then enter and exit based on breakouts or any TA signal...to each his own.

At this stage any significant breakout will be driven by drilling results. My objective is to own/maintain as many shares as possible like tutes. If it works out risk taken on a small frontier exploration Co will result in a reward with a buyout or production of new world class reservoirs.

At this stage jumping in and out is risky business IMO. The worst thing for shorts with a general market rally or hints of positive drilling results is for retail shareholders to stay wellcapitalized with a firm grip on shares.

[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 11/6/2011 7:39p).]
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Nom de Plume
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10:10a, 11/7/11
AG
I'm still trying to assess the risk on this and exactly how much I'm willing to throw in.

From what I've read here and other places the likelihood of hitting oil is pretty decent, around 50%. Some indications put it slightly higher.

IF commercial oil is found the stock price, by some indications, could jump to $12-15. Again, this is a realistic, conservative expectation based on what I've been able to find. In my book, that still puts this thing at a pretty good value and risk.

I realize this is rudimentary, and no one has the answers, but what insight do you guys have? Any past experiences from which to draw?
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thirdcoast
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3:58p, 11/8/11
AG
Operational Update Conference Call

Hyperdynamics will hold a conference call to provide an operational update on Wednesday, November 9, 2011 at 11:00 a.m. Eastern time / 10:00 a.m. Central time. To participate, dial 480-629-9643 and ask for the Hyperdynamics call at least ten minutes before the call begins. The call will also be broadcast live over the Internet from our website at www.hyperdynamics.com.

A replay of the conference call will be available shortly after the end of the call until November 16, 2011, and may be accessed by calling 303-590-3030 and using the pass code 4486432#.

http://investors.hyperdynamics.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=622037
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FTA 2010
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4:06p, 11/8/11
AG
Thanks third! I doubt they provide any results yet but it will be great to hear how the first well went/is going operationally and for an update on timeframes.
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Nom de Plume
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4:27p, 11/8/11
AG
Earnings reported, as well. Nothing much to report, obviously, since this is all about drilling.

Had a great run today on average volume but has traded down 10% in after hours. ?
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thirdcoast
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4:36p, 11/8/11
AG
*IMO*

Its during market hours. Won’t be official numbers.

If its anything short of insinuation of a commercial discovery, shorts may get their chance to cover.

I might be buying some cheap $3 puts to hedge into the news. Or option spreads to try and capture some volatility.

Glad I got my mobile trading app handy...

Best to all!

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Nom de Plume
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5:12p, 11/8/11
AG
Interesting from the 10Q:
quote:
In October of 2011, we commenced drilling operations on the first well of a two well exploration program offshore Guinea. The estimated cost for our first well is higher than we expected primarily due to certain delays and issues related to mechanical and operational matters on the rig, logistical delays resulting from limited port facilities in Guinea, and an expanded well logging program. Our current estimate of the cost of our two well program is $135 million on a gross basis, or approximately $104 million based on our current 77% interest. As of November 1, we have incurred costs on our two well program of approximately $44 million on a gross basis, $27.6 million of which we had paid as of September 30, 2011. We are currently reevaluating the timing of the commencement of the second exploration well. We expect our decision to depend on numerous factors and considerations including, the suitability and cost performance of the drilling rig. Our current cost estimate of our two well program may change based on new developments, including our decision on the timing of the commencement of the second well.
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Charles Bronson
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5:48p, 11/8/11
Not the kind of stuff I wanted to hear at this point.

quote:
The estimated cost for our first well is higher than we expected primarily due to certain delays and issues related to mechanical and operational matters on the rig


How the hell are we on the hook for this? Is that how it usually works with these contracts?

Spur of the moment CC is not Ray's style. Interested to see how he explains us being so far over budget in detail tomorrow. Would be awesome if he had some sort of surprise for us but that is probably a pipe dream at this point.
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LihaiAg06
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6:09p, 11/8/11
AG
After Hours: 4.10 -1.29 (-23.93%)
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thirdcoast
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6:26p, 11/8/11
AG
issues with rigs are actually more common than most think. I get rig updates from majors in the gulf almost daily at work.

That being said this is not a major nor the gulf. Ray is not rookie and I'm hopeful there is already a plan of action in process.

As for the market reaction, one would expect a sell off but then again we have seen a lot of counter intuitive price action in the past. I don't think I would unload imediately on a big gap down open.
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