BREAKING: Oil executives warn US diesel prices will not return to normal for more than a year, with almost half of 100 oil and gas companies surveyed by the Dallas Fed now saying it will take more than four quarters to get back to 2025 levels, per the FT.

"Diesel is the mother's…

— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) September 30, 2026

Quote:

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Oil executives warn US diesel prices will not return to normal for more than a year, with almost half of 100 oil and gas companies surveyed by the Dallas Fed now saying it will take more than four quarters to get back to 2025 levels, per the FT.

"Diesel is the mother's milk of the economy," one respondent says. "We are just starting to see the impact on the wider economy."

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said two weeks ago that the Great Fuel Crisis executives had warned about has arrived and that the mechanisms mitigating price and supply risk have "largely now played out."

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I laugh every time I go back and read the original post.

Well that's not good news. Say what you want but our current government really effed this one up.

Dungeon Crawler Carl said:

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BREAKING: Oil executives warn US diesel prices will not return to normal for more than a year, with almost half of 100 oil and gas companies surveyed by the Dallas Fed now saying it will take more than four quarters to get back to 2025 levels, per the FT.

"Diesel is the mother's…

— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) September 30, 2026

Quote:

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Oil executives warn US diesel prices will not return to normal for more than a year, with almost half of 100 oil and gas companies surveyed by the Dallas Fed now saying it will take more than four quarters to get back to 2025 levels, per the FT.

"Diesel is the mother's milk of the economy," one respondent says. "We are just starting to see the impact on the wider economy."

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said two weeks ago that the Great Fuel Crisis executives had warned about has arrived and that the mechanisms mitigating price and supply risk have "largely now played out."

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That's not good for the everyday Americans wallet.

And at the timeline, that's not going to be good for any republican who supported anything that led to this and is looking to run in '28.

No Spin Ag said:

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Dungeon Crawler Carl said:

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BREAKING: Oil executives warn US diesel prices will not return to normal for more than a year, with almost half of 100 oil and gas companies surveyed by the Dallas Fed now saying it will take more than four quarters to get back to 2025 levels, per the FT.

"Diesel is the mother's…

— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) September 30, 2026

Quote:

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Oil executives warn US diesel prices will not return to normal for more than a year, with almost half of 100 oil and gas companies surveyed by the Dallas Fed now saying it will take more than four quarters to get back to 2025 levels, per the FT.

"Diesel is the mother's milk of the economy," one respondent says. "We are just starting to see the impact on the wider economy."

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said two weeks ago that the Great Fuel Crisis executives had warned about has arrived and that the mechanisms mitigating price and supply risk have "largely now played out."

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That's not good for the everyday Americans wallet.

And at the timeline, that's not going to be good for any republican who supported anything that led to this and is looking to run in '28.

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our choices are "vote for this guy that will destroy the economy" or "vote for this guy that will f the economy without lube or the common curtesy of a reach around" YAY!!

Quote:

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That's not good for the everyday Americans wallet.

And at the timeline, that's not going to be good for any republican who supported anything that led to this and is looking to run in '28.

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There seems to be a decent lag in the commodity costs impacting headline inflation numbers, but this morning's manufacturing report is pretty ugly regarding prices paid.

Companies are going to accelerate the cost pressures into pricing.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/u-factory-activity-eases-september-145541168.html

Quote:

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U.S. factory activity eases in September as prices jump, ISM survey shows

U.S. manufacturing sector activity eased marginally in September, as input prices paid by these companies jumped, reflecting increased inflationary pressures due to the Middle East conflict and ongoing trade tensions.

Susan Spence, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, noted that pricing volatility was mentioned in just under half of the "negative comments" given by respondents to the survey, while 34% highlighted the effect of tariffs on their businesses, and 30% flagged the impact of the Iran war.

Critically, the report's tracker of prices came in at 77.9, up from 71.1 in the prior month and well above analysts' estimates of 72.9.

"[T]he inflation number [...] is the big takeaway from this report, and it means the September price readings for the overall economy [...] are likely to be quite hot, with all the attendant macro fallout," analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note.

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🚨Report: The Trump administration told France and Germany to release their emergency diesel reserves or face a ban on diesel exports from the U.S. pic.twitter.com/aMXrNrywD5

— The Calvin Coolidge Project (@TheCalvinCooli1) October 1, 2026

TRM said:

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🚨Report: The Trump administration told France and Germany to release their emergency diesel reserves or face a ban on diesel exports from the U.S. pic.twitter.com/aMXrNrywD5

— The Calvin Coolidge Project (@TheCalvinCooli1) October 1, 2026

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Insane.

BREAKING: More than 2,000 US Marines are now heading to the Middle East aboard the Makin Island amphibious ready group, with a US official saying three aircraft carriers and two amphibious landing groups will be deployed around Iran by November for new operations.

The official…

— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) October 1, 2026

This only ends with military actions.

There is no deal to be had. Way too much water under the bridge now......


Buckle up folks and take actions (if you haven't already done so) to protect your wealth and family.

2040huck said:

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I laugh every time I go back and read the original post.

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The goal tending is way more hilarious. Everyone is dead wrong occasionally but the posters trying to downplay ( repeatedly )the magnitude of this poor choice are the best part of the thread

Dungeon Crawler Carl said:

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BREAKING: More than 2,000 US Marines are now heading to the Middle East aboard the Makin Island amphibious ready group, with a US official saying three aircraft carriers and two amphibious landing groups will be deployed around Iran by November for new operations.

The official…

— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) October 1, 2026

This only ends with military actions.

There is no deal to be had. Way too much water under the bridge now......


Buckle up folks and take actions (if you haven't already done so) to protect your wealth and family.

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Looks like Trump is looking at the midterms as the time and place to, finally, do what's needed to be done all this time.

Now, if he'll actually go through with it is another story. I believe, though I may be wrong, that something similar was done already and nothing came of it.

We will probably wake up one day in the middle of October to find out that everything on both sides of the Gulf is on fire.

No one will know who fired first, nor will it matter........it will just be a cluster f with both sides firing everything they've got.


I really don't care about the politics of all of this. It's just the Fourth Turning playing out in full color IMO.


There are giants fighting in the playground, our challenge as the little guys is not getting stepped on.

TRM said:

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🚨Report: The Trump administration told France and Germany to release their emergency diesel reserves or face a ban on diesel exports from the U.S. pic.twitter.com/aMXrNrywD5

— The Calvin Coolidge Project (@TheCalvinCooli1) October 1, 2026

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Trump lashing out again against those he thinks he can browbeat safely when things don't go his way.

I knew I should have topped off the tank when prices dropped to around 3.70 for those two or three days. Immediately jumped back up to 3.99.

Eliminatus said:

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TRM said:

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🚨Report: The Trump administration told France and Germany to release their emergency diesel reserves or face a ban on diesel exports from the U.S. pic.twitter.com/aMXrNrywD5

— The Calvin Coolidge Project (@TheCalvinCooli1) October 1, 2026

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Trump lashing out again against those he thinks he can browbeat safely when things don't go his way.

I knew I should have topped off the tank when prices dropped to around 3.70 for those two or three days. Immediately jumped back up to 3.99.

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I've been opposed to a broad ban on diesel exports, but I think a targeted approach like this makes sense. Why should we allow exports to a country who is sitting on their own reserves and refusing to tap them? I don't think selective bans like this would have a boomerang effect on gas prices. There's enough shortage of diesel in domestic supply chains to make room for any export diesel that gets temporarily restrained and allow our refineries to continue running full throttle.

Everything seemed to have dropped a bit overnight. USO is off $5.54 after market. I have a fresh short so a little excited to see what happens at the bell. Not sure why really, must be speculation about France/Germany releasing diesel reserves I guess?

ETA, tempted to sell, as the French/Germans surely want to throw some shade on this.

ETA2 (don't want to get off topic): sold. Nice $1,100 or so profit. Not investment advice etc. Definitely didn't want to hold thru the weekend.

It should not be a ban it should be a tax and it should be high enough that the Euros decide to tap into their supply and to try and decrease usage where possible.

I know diesel demand is somewhat inelastic but even a 10% decreas would matter for example I have stopped shredding The pastures the pastures would look better and the grass would do better but at $5.25 for farm diesel I can put that off til next year

MemphisAg1 said:

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Eliminatus said:

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TRM said:

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🚨Report: The Trump administration told France and Germany to release their emergency diesel reserves or face a ban on diesel exports from the U.S. pic.twitter.com/aMXrNrywD5

— The Calvin Coolidge Project (@TheCalvinCooli1) October 1, 2026

---

Trump lashing out again against those he thinks he can browbeat safely when things don't go his way.

I knew I should have topped off the tank when prices dropped to around 3.70 for those two or three days. Immediately jumped back up to 3.99.

---

I've been opposed to a broad ban on diesel exports, but I think a targeted approach like this makes sense. Why should we allow exports to a country who is sitting on their own reserves and refusing to tap them? I don't think selective bans like this would have a boomerang effect on gas prices. There's enough shortage of diesel in domestic supply chains to make room for any export diesel that gets temporarily restrained and allow our refineries to continue running full throttle.

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Differing viewpoints. We are not looking at theirs. Neither of those countries are major producers so have to be a lot more stingey. We could do a lot with our SPR simply because we can replace it at will. Even if it costs more. Things have to be dire for us to face actual scarcity. France and Germany are in a much more different spot and have to consider facing actual real scarcity as an issue. I am almost certain that is why they are maintaining their stocks as of now, especially heading into the winter months. To be frank, if I were in their shoes, I wouldn't release them either as of now just to lower prices. Off the top of my head, not sure what the obligations to the EU are either, so maybe other considerations there.

IOW, Trump either doesn't realize their actual situation or DGAF. Honestly, I see both as being entirely valid. Anything and everything to lower fuel prices and get some of this burden off his shoulders, further consequences to others be damned.

Also, I know the odds of any sort of sustained Russian military options are very low, but regardless it is something the EU has to take into consideration and they are all arming like crazy (well, most of them and this is something Trump pushed for himself) and field and training soldiers takes unbelievable amounts of fuel of all sorts. Their demand is only increasing which further lends credence to their not wanting to release their strategic/emergency reserves just to manipulate the pricing. Even if it is painful right now. They have had internal discussions about this very topic though. Nothing has come of it as of yet, but nothing is set in concrete.

TLDR: Those countries cannot refill their stocks at will and so must divy them out in actual real scarcity events that threaten their survival. IMO, it would be stupid to release enough to manipulate pricing across the world, when there is no agreement or plan from outside producers they rely on to get them refilled them immediately at cost.

Per Kevin Hassett talking on FNC, Trump is making several major announcements on gas price relief next week. No details were provided, though usually some basics start leaking out.

If Trump had a good fix for it he would have already done it IMO.

flown-the-coop said:

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Per Kevin Hassett talking on FNC, Trump is making several major announcements on gas price relief next week. No details were provided, though usually some basics start leaking out.

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Whatever he announces is going to be too little too late.

Voters have already decided his policies have been the reason they have been paying so much at the pump.

When November arrives, he and the Republican party are going to be punished.

Cure for gas prices;

Cut regulation
Cut taxes
Cut government spending
Stop lying about foreign money laundering operations half way across the globe used to repay campaign donors
Get out of the way, and shutup

In other words, be a real American leader and do things that benefit Americans, not a bought and paid for actor like Trump, Clinton, Biden, Obama, GWB, etc.

BREAKING: US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada have just agreed to a coordinated release of 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel through the IEA, beginning immediately over four months, with a frontloaded substantial diesel release within the first 20 days, per…

— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) October 2, 2026

Prices are going to go down for a bit..... Sure hope no one does anything stupid, like start bombing again.

All eyes on you Bibi.

SA68AG said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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Per Kevin Hassett talking on FNC, Trump is making several major announcements on gas price relief next week. No details were provided, though usually some basics start leaking out.

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Whatever he announces is going to be too little too late.

Voters have already decided his policies have been the reason they have been paying so much at the pump.

When November arrives, he and the Republican party are going to be punished.

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without a doubt

docb said:

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If Trump had a good fix for it he would have already done it IMO.

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Yeah the guy who was hoisted by his own petard is now looking for the solution.

Dungeon Crawler Carl said:

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BREAKING: US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada have just agreed to a coordinated release of 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel through the IEA, beginning immediately over four months, with a frontloaded substantial diesel release within the first 20 days, per…

— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) October 2, 2026

Prices are going to go down for a bit..... Sure hope no one does anything stupid, like start bombing again.

All eyes on you Bibi.

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When was the last Israeli strike on Iran?

EMY92 said:

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Dungeon Crawler Carl said:

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BREAKING: US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada have just agreed to a coordinated release of 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel through the IEA, beginning immediately over four months, with a frontloaded substantial diesel release within the first 20 days, per…

— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) October 2, 2026

Prices are going to go down for a bit..... Sure hope no one does anything stupid, like start bombing again.

All eyes on you Bibi.

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When was the last Israeli strike on Iran?

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Kinda thought the same thing.

Aren't we the ones building-up troops in the area?

Not really

docb said:

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If Trump had a good fix for it he would have already done it IMO.

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Whatever he has up his sleeve he will wait til after Columbus Day to roll it out. Whatever he has might work for a few weeks, he needs to roll it out late October

Sq 17 said:

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docb said:

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If Trump had a good fix for it he would have already done it IMO.

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Whatever he has up his sleeve he will wait til after Columbus Day to roll it out. Whatever he has might work for a few weeks, he needs to roll it out late October

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Whatever he does, if it is something that even the blind see could've been done sooner but was done for political reasons like the midterms, it will only look poorly.

Abbott loosening restrictions on Red Diesel is the type of move Trump could try

It would stop the rise of prices, it is a "tax cut" and it baits the other side into criticizing the move which can then be characterized as them being against normal people and for higher taxes

I doubt it changes anybody's vote but the current goal is to get Rs to vote instead of sitting this election out

Gas is down another 10 cents or so in the Kansas City area and diesel is finally below $6.

Gas-$4.09
Diesel-$5.99

Sq 17 said:

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docb said:

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If Trump had a good fix for it he would have already done it IMO.

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Whatever he has up his sleeve he will wait til after Columbus Day to roll it out. Whatever he has might work for a few weeks, he needs to roll it out late October

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I don't think he'll swing many people at all with short term gimmicks, especially as the price is high enough that even a moderate dip still has them far above where they started.

If he doesn't want gas prices to affect people at the voting booths, I think he needs to 1) pull a peace deal rabbit out of his hat or 2) convince people that this was a war/action/whatever worth fighting and suffering through and that justifies higher prices for an extended period.

The first is nigh impossible and the second is very difficult since he spent two years telling people we were done with wars in the Middle East.

Edit: For comparison, average gas price in January 2026 was $2.84 versus $4.43. So even if he drops $0.75-1.00 per gallon it's still 20-30% higher than it was when the Iran war started. So yea, pull a peace deal out and convince people it's about to drop or sell them on the war.

Any "peace deal" is going to look like a surrender by the US so that's not going to happen

Sq 17 said:

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Any "peace deal" is going to look like a surrender by the US so that's not going to happen

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Nah, as part of the deal, he'd have the country renamed to Bucees-istan or something close.

SA68AG said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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Per Kevin Hassett talking on FNC, Trump is making several major announcements on gas price relief next week. No details were provided, though usually some basics start leaking out.

---

Whatever he announces is going to be too little too late.

Voters have already decided his policies have been the reason they have been paying so much at the pump.

When November arrives, he and the Republican party are going to be punished.

---

Does it really have to be all about getting votes? Why not just try to fix a problem because he and the rest of the world knows his unpopular war is directly responsible
for the pain?

I guess we'll see Abbott 100% gung ho and full steam ahead on data centers November 5th as well?

I'm not a fan of politicians being fake nice and pretending to care all of a sudden because voting is starting soon. They've had a long time to fix these problems and they won't care about them anymore after the election.