Gas is now under $3

154,506 Views | 1822 Replies | Last: 5 hrs ago by goatchze
nortex97
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Aggie95 • 4:11a, 9/23/26
AG
Aggie95 said:
nortex97 said:
There's some AI confusion here imho. When diesel is generated in excess of requirements/market, it's just fed into an FCC (fluid catalytic cracker or hydrocracker) and converted/processed into gasoline.

Diesel is neither the feedstock nor the goal of the classic "crack heavy oil to make gasoline" step; it's the boiling-range product that sits between them.

Diesel demand is not going to drop any time soon in the US (nor elsewhere) and refineries aren't going to wind down production of it based on any kind of export ban of the product.

can you explain why diesel demand is not going to drop in the US or elsewhere? It seems like the consumer is tapped out and there is not much positive economic activity outside of AI. As bad as things are here, there is zero growth in Europe and they seem on the verge on recession every year.

I just don't see any drop in demand, near nor long term.

I don't know what the split is from consumer:industrial (trucking but also including agricultural), but if I had to swag it would probably be something like 1:5. Most consumers don't commute in a diesel vehicle/pick up. Even though this thread is mainly individuals/consumer, the ones most frustrated even here I think are buying a lot of it for agricultural purposes.

I agree Europe is a complete mess, largely by policy/intentionally so. They are/have been very reliant on Saudi and Russian refineries for diesel in particular.

WTI is off another 63 cents at the moment, to $89 and change fwiw.

ETA:
Reply Quote
1
1 edit
sts7049
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:11a, 9/23/26
AG
Wright confirms it's a stupid idea

Reply Quote
6
Charpie
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to sts7049 • 9:44a, 9/23/26
AG
sts7049 said:
Wright confirms it's a stupid idea


Yup.

We make more diesel than we consume.
Reply Quote
3
nortex97
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Charpie • 9:46a, 9/23/26
AG
This is good news, though I'd really like to see USO crest $150 again before I do another short play.
Reply Quote
Dan Scott
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to nortex97 • 9:50a, 9/23/26
AG
That RBOB price is not right. There is no contract that has swung that much. The current price is about $3.50
Reply Quote
Logos Stick
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:04a, 9/23/26
this is not because of the price of oil...

Reply Quote
6
BigRobSA
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to sts7049 • 10:24a, 9/23/26
sts7049 said:
Wright confirms it's a stupid idea



Incoming Truth post about how he's stupid or whatever descriptor of the day for not being supportive.
Reply Quote
22
No Spin Ag
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Logos Stick • 10:45a, 9/23/26
Logos Stick said:
this is not because of the price of oil...



"Build baby, build! (Refineries, obviously)" needs to be the new chant of it right and left.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
Reply Quote
2
Dan Scott
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:52a, 9/23/26
AG
RBOB highest since May, Diesel hovering near highs

Trumps speech yesterday was hawkish towards Iran, Irans president came off hawkish. No positive headlines about the talks. Maybe it'll really be until after election.
Reply Quote
4
Gordo14
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
12:09p, 9/23/26
Now our totally not Marxist government is going to ban diesel exports for 90 days without considering the follow consequences of such a terrible policy.

1). Refinery runs will be cut in the best refining margins in history due to lack of an outlet for excess diesel.
2). Cutting refinery runs will cause gasoline prices and jet fuel prices to rise. Likely leading to massive shortages in both.
3) lack of access to diesel globally likely to cause a global economic spiral of which we are not protected from the consequences.

Banning diesel exports will be a disaster. Genius.
Reply Quote
12
Iraq2xVeteran
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
12:13p, 9/23/26
AG
Gas was $3.929 at a 7-Eleven on 2600 Guadalupe Street in Austin two days ago, and I paid $3.879 after I received 5 cents off per gallon from the 7-Eleven rewards app.
Reply Quote
1
Ervin Burrell
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Gordo14 • 12:16p, 9/23/26
AG
Gordo14 said:
Now our totally not Marxist government is going to ban diesel exports for 90 days without considering the follow consequences of such a terrible policy.

1). Refinery runs will be cut in the best refining margins in history due to lack of an outlet for excess diesel.
2). Cutting refinery runs will cause gasoline prices and jet fuel prices to rise. Likely leading to massive shortages in both.
3) lack of access to diesel globally likely to cause a global economic spiral of which we are not protected from the consequences.

Banning diesel exports will be a disaster. Genius.

Government interference in the free market is BADASS, as long as it's Glorious Supreme Leader doing it.
Reply Quote
16
jt2hunt
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Gordo14 • 12:23p, 9/23/26
AG
How does 90 days influence price versus 120 days?

When diesel is an output how long from the refining part does it take to get overseas?
Reply Quote
YouBet
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
12:26p, 9/23/26
AG
Quote:
Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Wednesday said the Trump administration wouldn't outright ban exports of diesel but rather implement restrictions.

In an interview with WSJ Journal House on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, Wright said the administration wouldn't stop all exports of diesel. He said the administration has to keep the world supplied with diesel but needs to change the trajectory of prices in the U.S.and the plan would be voluntary.

"We're trying to avoid a blunt hammer of a government policy, understanding the complexity of refining," Wright said.

Who is going to volunteer to do that and lose revenue knowing their competitors won't? Above is direct from Chris Wright via interview with WSJ.
Reply Quote
1
2 edits
K Bo
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
12:27p, 9/23/26
AG
Looks like it's only Politico reporting on the supposed 90d ban. Might take that with a grain of salt, for now.
Reply Quote
1
nortex97
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Gordo14 • 12:28p, 9/23/26
AG
It would be an enormous mistake, I have to agree with you.
Quote:
US refiners currently produce far more diesel than the domestic market consumes and export the surplus (around 1.5 million barrels per day). A ban would trap that diesel on the Gulf Coast. Storage would fill quickly, diesel crack spreads would collapse, and refiners would cut crude runsS&P Global estimates by roughly 1.92 million barrels per dayto eliminate the surplus.

Really hope this doesn't go through, despite some reporting that it is happening. It's insanity. We need/want more diesel on the global market, not less.
Reply Quote
2
Dungeon Crawler Carl
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to nortex97 • 12:47p, 9/23/26
Quote:
Really hope this doesn't go through, despite some reporting that it is happening. It's insanity. We need/want more diesel on the global market, not less.


So do the international customers of US produced diesel. Sure, this will probably drive domestic prices down and increase GDP in the short term BUT European and Latin American leaders have to be ****ting their pants right now (especially Macron).


Trump is really taking a wrecking ball to the global economy in 2026. Can't tell if this is 6D master class in chess to destroy Globalism/Davos/EU or pure incompetence or somewhere in between.......wait and see is all we can do.


Prediction: he'll implement it and then rescind after about a week of *****ing and moaning from the EU.
Reply Quote
3
Icecream_Ag
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Dungeon Crawler Carl • 12:49p, 9/23/26
S
Dungeon Crawler Carl said:
Quote:
Really hope this doesn't go through, despite some reporting that it is happening. It's insanity. We need/want more diesel on the global market, not less.


So do the international customers of US produced diesel. Sure, this will probably drive domestic prices down and increase GDP in the short term BUT European and Latin American leaders have to be ****ting their pants right now (especially Macron).


Trump is really taking a wrecking ball to the global economy in 2026. Can't tell if this is 6D master class in chess to destroy Globalism/Davos/EU or pure incompetence or somewhere in between.......wait and see is all we can do.


Prediction: he'll implement it and then rescind after about a week of *****ing and moaning from the EU.

Reply Quote
2
No Spin Ag
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
1:11p, 9/23/26
So, gas just jumped to $4.19.

If it keeps like this we might need a new thread for gas being under $4.

Maybe in two more weeks?
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
Reply Quote
20
BigRobSA
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to No Spin Ag • 1:17p, 9/23/26
No Spin Ag said:
So, gas just jumped to $4.19.

If it keeps like this we might need a new thread for gas being under $4.

Maybe in two more weeks?


Mask up and get boosted!!!!1
Reply Quote
8
Rapier108
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to nortex97 • 1:28p, 9/23/26
nortex97 said:
It would be an enormous mistake, I have to agree with you.
Quote:
US refiners currently produce far more diesel than the domestic market consumes and export the surplus (around 1.5 million barrels per day). A ban would trap that diesel on the Gulf Coast. Storage would fill quickly, diesel crack spreads would collapse, and refiners would cut crude runsS&P Global estimates by roughly 1.92 million barrels per dayto eliminate the surplus.

Really hope this doesn't go through, despite some reporting that it is happening. It's insanity. We need/want more diesel on the global market, not less.

If its a bad idea, then Trump will do it no matter what his advisors tell him.

Seems to be his MO as of late.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Reply Quote
20
Dungeon Crawler Carl
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
4:36p, 9/23/26


its not all doom and gloom.....
Reply Quote
5
AGHouston11
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to No Spin Ag • 5:54p, 9/23/26
AG
No Spin Ag said:
So, gas just jumped to $4.19.

If it keeps like this we might need a new thread for gas being under $4.

Maybe in two more weeks?


Trump always has been very relatable even to the blue collar folks. Something that most mega rich people can't accomplish let alone a billionaire. But this issue cuts deep into that. The guy filing up his truck on the way to his next job for the day doesn't relate when he just charged a small fortune on his credit card to fill up! Everyone remembers the Joe I did this stickers! Trump's blown it so bad on this!

People don't care about graphs etc they care about the total price of something they were told was going to be falling like a rock!

Reply Quote
12
1 edit
Equinox
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to No Spin Ag • 9:06p, 9/23/26
No Spin Ag said:
So, gas just jumped to $4.19.

If it keeps like this we might need a new thread for gas being under $4.

Maybe in two more weeks?

I almost started one a couple of days ago but figured it would get locked.
Reply Quote
8
Burpelson
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:16p, 9/23/26
$3.89 HEB not heading in right direction.
Reply Quote
4
1 edit
AxelFoley85
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:32a, 9/24/26
Reply Quote
4
No Spin Ag
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to AxelFoley85 • 11:34a, 9/24/26
AxelFoley85 said:


I don't math, but I'm thinking the graph thing going up is still not good for the consumer, no?
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
Reply Quote
6
samurai_science
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:37a, 9/24/26
They said they attacked a site? Did it happen?
Was it damaged?


Reply Quote
AGHouston11
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Equinox • 11:42a, 9/24/26
AG
[Complaining about moderation won't get you anywhere but a timeout. Staff]
Reply Quote
1
Edited by Staff
jja79
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
12:24p, 9/24/26
AG
Down to $4.59 at my nearest Sam's Club. Circle K is $4.89.
Reply Quote
1
K Bo
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
4:24p, 9/24/26
AG
Sounds like the likelihood of a mandatory diesel export ban might be off the table, but the administration is seeking support from US refiners for a voluntary restriction in diesel exports.
Reply Quote
1 edit
PaulsBunions
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to K Bo • 4:41p, 9/24/26
AG
K Bo said:
Sounds like the likelihood of a mandatory diesel export ban might be off the table, but the administration is seeking support from US refiners for a voluntary restriction in diesel exports.


Wouldn't they lose money if they agree to that
Reply Quote
1
T dizl televizl
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to PaulsBunions • 4:42p, 9/24/26
AG
PaulsBunions said:
K Bo said:
Sounds like the likelihood of a mandatory diesel export ban might be off the table, but the administration is seeking support from US refiners for a voluntary restriction in diesel exports.


Wouldn't they lose money if they agree to that


Unless government used our tax payer money to pay delta between domestic and international prices
Reply Quote
2
Dan Scott
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to PaulsBunions • 4:44p, 9/24/26
AG
PaulsBunions said:
K Bo said:
Sounds like the likelihood of a mandatory diesel export ban might be off the table, but the administration is seeking support from US refiners for a voluntary restriction in diesel exports.


Wouldn't they lose money if they agree to that


Brand it as their patriotic duty to sacrifice some margin.
Reply Quote
8
JamesE4
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
4:49p, 9/24/26
AG
Dan Scott explained at a high level how refiners try to optimize their operations and profits. They also may have long term crude purchase and product placement contracts/constraints and logistics constraints that impact what they can do.

I believe diesel margins for most U.S. refineries have been better than gasoline for a long time (hence many diesel optimization projects in the last 10-15 years), so I don't think refineries will want to start making more gasoline instead of diesel.

Unfortunately, more goods transportation is dependent on diesel than gasoline, so diesel going up has a bigger impact on inflation.

I believe the current extreme refining margins are driven more by Ukraine/Russia and Iran/Middle East wars. Long term it is an opportunity for U.S. refineries to expand, but it is not a quick process. It normally takes 3 years or more from initial study to implement a refinery expansion project.
Reply Quote
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.