Gas is now under $3

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BrazosDog02
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In reply to Sq 17 • 5:30p, 9/28/26
Sq 17 said:
What happens when all the places that sell Red Diesel are sucked dry


real ag operations get forced to pay for full priced road diesel

It's not quite that easy. You can't just roll up to the bulk supplier and get 50 gallons of diesel in your tank. Maybe you can some places, but my supplier isn't like that. You have to set up an account, and you have to buy 400 gallons minimum to avoid extra delivery charges, and then you need to schedule a delivery, and when they get there, they will need a tank of suitable size to hold it and space for a bobtail to get in to fill it.
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Sq 17
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In reply to BrazosDog02 • 5:42p, 9/28/26
I know how it works and I doubt the place I buy farm diesel from has an unlimited supply of red diesel

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goatchze
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In reply to Sq 17 • 5:58p, 9/28/26
Sq 17 said:
What is that on a % basis?
How much is crude up on a % basis?
Obviously a big move but a one day snap shot of one graph is probably not telling the whole story

Looks like a stat that has been cherry picked.

Demand destruction for diesel is beginning. People who have a diesel truck as their daily driver are driving less or driving a different vehicle in their driveway.

Not sure refiners making less profit is going to solve the problem


The crack spread is a general guide to refiners' margin, or the difference in feed and product prices and is extremely helpful in understanding the market. It is typically a comparison of the price of 3 barrels of oil to 2 barrels of gasoline and 1 barrel of diesel (called the 321 crack spread), It is still extremely high right now, which means demand for the finished products (or availability of finished products globally) is driving up fuel price more so than the price of oil.

If you want to actually track fuel prices, watch RBOB for gasoline and HO (heating oil) for diesel. They are much better indicators of the broader demand and price for each commodity. Everything you see beyond that is transportation, finishing, and regional variations and delays. Those two are your better "benchmarks" for price movement.

RBOB right now is $3.20. HO is $4.50. Both are up 100% from January. Oil is up 50% over the same time.

The US is the largest exporter of distillates globally, and our prices float on international demand, not just domestic. Global supply/demand matters.

The good news is there will not be shortages here as we are the producers, unlike abroad. The bad news is, you will still have to pay high prices.
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goatchze
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In reply to Sq 17 • 6:01p, 9/28/26
Sq 17 said:
What happens when all the places that sell Red Diesel are sucked dry


real ag operations get forced to pay for full priced road diesel


The price difference between offroad diesel and onroad diesel is just the taxes which are typically fixed based on volume. Red diesel is the same ULSD you get at the local stop and rob, just dyed red to indicate no road taxes were paid on it.
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nortex97
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7:17a, 9/29/26

October gasoline contract down to $3.25. LFG!

ETA: tempted to buy some more USO puts. Just still feels like easy money.
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Pumpkinhead
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:58a, 9/29/26
WTI crashes to $90? It was at about $65 on Feb. 26.
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No Spin Ag
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 11:10a, 9/29/26
Pumpkinhead said:
WTI crashes to $90? It was at about $65 on Feb. 26.

Love it!

Now, to see how long it takes for prices at the pump to get back to just a little over $3 a gallon.

Probably just in time for the midterms is my prediction, kind of like when prices went down just in time for the 4th of July festivities.
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amercer
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In reply to No Spin Ag • 12:42p, 9/29/26
Voting has already started. At this point no one is driving by the pump in the next few weeks and thinking "maybe I'll change who I'm voting for"
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PaulsBunions
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1:25p, 9/29/26


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Sq 17
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In reply to amercer • 1:26p, 9/29/26
If things improve R leaning voters might decide to vote instead of sitting this round out
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NoahAg
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2:31p, 9/29/26
$3.99 this morning.
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nortex97
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 2:37p, 9/29/26
I sold those 2 USO Puts for a 50% profit fwiw. Will buy back in tomorrow if it somehow jumps overnight (not hoping for that, but it would be interesting). Not investment advice etc.

WTI in the 80's now.
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Ducks4brkfast
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In reply to Sq 17 • 2:44p, 9/29/26
Sq 17 said:
If things improve R leaning voters might decide to vote instead of sitting this round out

The cake is baked for the midterms. Prepare to be disappointed.
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BigRobSA
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2:55p, 9/29/26
Every QT, and any other gas station "neighbor" to them, that i saw today driving throughout San AntMexico were at 3.99. Weirdly, other stations NOT in the locale of a QT (HEB, Murphy, etc) ranged from 3.56 to 3.66.

Dafuq!?
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Sq 17
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In reply to Ducks4brkfast • 3:52p, 9/29/26
Ducks4brkfast said:
Sq 17 said:
If things improve R leaning voters might decide to vote instead of sitting this round out

The cake is baked for the midterms. Prepare to be disappointed.


I think Paxson Talarico and a few other races are still "not baked"
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Ducks4brkfast
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In reply to Sq 17 • 3:54p, 9/29/26
Sq 17 said:
Ducks4brkfast said:
Sq 17 said:
If things improve R leaning voters might decide to vote instead of sitting this round out

The cake is baked for the midterms. Prepare to be disappointed.


I think Paxson Talarico and a few other races are still "not baked"

that is correct. not every single race in the country is falling the democrats way.
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No Spin Ag
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In reply to BigRobSA • 5:26p, 9/29/26
BigRobSA said:
Every QT, and any other gas station "neighbor" to them, that i saw today driving throughout San AntMexico were at 3.99. Weirdly, other stations NOT in the locale of a QT (HEB, Murphy, etc) ranged from 3.56 to 3.66.

Dafuq!?

Back in the day, when we saw things like that (sus gas prices), our only questions weren't IF there was water added to the underground tanks, but how much water was added.

And, no, we weren't wrong.
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Dan Scott
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9:57a, 9/30/26
Refined product prices up big this morning. Not sure why. Diesel was about 10% before coming down
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nortex97
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In reply to Dan Scott • 10:10a, 9/30/26
Yeah USO climbing again toward 150, has me tempted of course but I am thinking it's too tough to guesstimate right now. Don't want to trap myself just because it worked 2 times in a row. The report out of hormuz was that traffic was very high but refined products only 59% still from the persian gulf vs. pre-war so it's the distillates still in short supply, not inputs to refineries, really anywhere on earth at this point (possibly a glut even in China).
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Rossticus
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In reply to BigRobSA • 1:09p, 9/30/26
BigRobSA said:
Every QT, and any other gas station "neighbor" to them, that i saw today driving throughout San AntMexico were at 3.99. Weirdly, other stations NOT in the locale of a QT (HEB, Murphy, etc) ranged from 3.56 to 3.66.

Dafuq!?


Weird. QT is always among cheapest in my neck of the woods (NE), as they're near Costco and Buc-ee's and almost always match. They've been at $3.60 gal for the last couple of weeks.
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BigRobSA
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In reply to Rossticus • 1:14p, 9/30/26
Rossticus said:
BigRobSA said:
Every QT, and any other gas station "neighbor" to them, that i saw today driving throughout San AntMexico were at 3.99. Weirdly, other stations NOT in the locale of a QT (HEB, Murphy, etc) ranged from 3.56 to 3.66.

Dafuq!?


Weird. QT is always among cheapest in my neck of the woods (NE), as they're near Costco and Buc-ee's and almost always match. They've been at $3.60 gal for the last couple of weeks.


It normally varies, by area of town, but seriously...every single QT was showing $3.99 . Right off 410, on Bandera in Leon Valley, down Nacogdoches.....all of them.Was weird. Didn't pay attention today.
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ErnestEndeavor
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2:14p, 9/30/26
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/iran-war-strait-hormuz-gulf-oil-fuel.html

Crude passing through Hormuz is now at and even sometimes above pre-war levels.

Refined product exports, which is the big issue, is still sitting at only about 19% of prewar levels.
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docb
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2:22p, 9/30/26
Diesel jumped back up to $5.89 at my local QT. Non-ethanol has been really high. Last I saw it was over $5.
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No Spin Ag
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In reply to ErnestEndeavor • 3:19p, 9/30/26
ErnestEndeavor said:
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/iran-war-strait-hormuz-gulf-oil-fuel.html

Crude passing through Hormuz is now at and even sometimes above pre-war levels.

Refined product exports, which is the big issue, is still sitting at only about 19% of prewar levels.


So things are back to normal with the SOH?
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ErnestEndeavor
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In reply to No Spin Ag • 3:20p, 9/30/26
No. Refined product exports are down 80%. I assume a lot of other products are still way down. Crude has recovered.
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No Spin Ag
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In reply to ErnestEndeavor • 3:25p, 9/30/26
ErnestEndeavor said:
No. Refined product exports are down 80%. I assume a lot of other products are still way down. Crude has recovered.


That's a positive for sure.

Any idea or word on whet prices at the pump will get back to pre war prices?
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nortex97
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In reply to ErnestEndeavor • 3:34p, 9/30/26
ErnestEndeavor said:
No. Refined product exports are down 80%. I assume a lot of other products are still way down. Crude has recovered.

They are down 40-50 percent thru Hormuz, and that drop is decreasing fairly steadily still.

Now, factoring in Russia still being offline for exports, I don't know what the total delta is at this point. I read that the diesel crack/spread is over $122/barrel today (presumably from the gulf coast refiners), and that is probably more related to shipping to Europe again than anything in the middle east.

There are some happy to report on that for political reasons, of course.
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docb
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In reply to nortex97 • 3:46p, 9/30/26
Yes we know there are
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techno-ag
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:13p, 9/30/26
nortex97 said:
ErnestEndeavor said:
No. Refined product exports are down 80%. I assume a lot of other products are still way down. Crude has recovered.

They are down 40-50 percent thru Hormuz, and that drop is decreasing fairly steadily still.

Now, factoring in Russia still being offline for exports, I don't know what the total delta is at this point. I read that the diesel crack/spread is over $122/barrel today (presumably from the gulf coast refiners), and that is probably more related to shipping to Europe again than anything in the middle east.

There are some happy to report on that for political reasons, of course.

Appreciate your contributions to this thread NorTex.
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
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nortex97
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In reply to techno-ag • 3:34a, 10/1/26
docb
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8:17a, 10/1/26
Checked the non-ethanol gas this morning driving in to work and it is $5.30 gallon! I would hate to be a fishing guide right now.
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TxSquarebody
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8:19a, 10/1/26
How many gallons of ethanol can you make from a 50lb bag of deer corn?? Asking for a friend.
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Charpie
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In reply to TxSquarebody • 8:25a, 10/1/26
TxSquarebody said:
How many gallons of ethanol can you make from a 50lb bag of deer corn?? Asking for a friend.

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HTownAg98
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In reply to TxSquarebody • 8:41a, 10/1/26
TxSquarebody said:
How many gallons of ethanol can you make from a 50lb bag of deer corn?? Asking for a friend.

If you run the math on the cost of the corn alone, gasoline is just marginally more expensive.
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EMY92
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8:59a, 10/1/26
This morning was my first time out since Tuesday. Noticed the price jumped to $3.96 from Tuesday's $3.64.
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