Gas is now under $3

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Less Evil Hank Scorpio
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11:25a, 10/5/26
AG
I feel like it's a little bit of a smoke and mirrors game to now be ignoring the price of crude. Before we started the Iran war, oil was around $60, so we're still up ~50%.

On average, you get ~20 gallons of gasoline, 12 gallons of diesel, 4 gallons of jet fuel, and the remainder is other byproducts like asphalt and petrochem feedstocks.

The disproportionate rise in diesel is a result of the constraints of refining capacity, but even if no refineries were taken offline, Diesel would be $5.25-$5.75/gallon today assuming the economics from pre-Iran war scale proportionately.

The whole thing is a cluster**** and while the russian refining picture makes it worse, it is still a massive own-goal by Trump.
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Dimond1968
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11:39a, 10/5/26
We need more refineries which should be pushed before the Dems take over. Then we need up to stop blowing up the refineries we have. Get out of this Iran war and bring prices down.
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Ervin Burrell
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In reply to Bull Meachem • 11:59a, 10/5/26
AG
Bull Meachem said:
inconvenient truth said:
Queso1 said:
Trump said $200-$250 oil would be a fair price to rid Iran of a nuke. I guess so, if they had one.

Discussing/criticizing the decision to go kinetic against Iran is absolutely fair game. However, that being said, to claim that Iran hasn't spent the past decades working towards a bomb is disingenuous at best and completely ignorant at worst.

Trump told us we took care of that in 2025, right?

Nah, remember that's one of those time where it's "AKSHUALLY what he meant was..." Get with the program.
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BigRobSA
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In reply to Rossticus • 12:57p, 10/5/26
Rossticus said:
BigRobSA said:
$3.799/gal as lowest, by me on the Souttttttthhhhsiiiiiiiide of SA, $3.959 as a high. For regular unleaded.

A lot of my coworkers have already been slowing down "doing things" that involves driving. This keeps up and 2028 is in jeopardy. A lot of them, mostly Hispanic, voted for Trump if they voted at all. I doubt they're voting for Talarico, but they're also just not going to vote, here, too.


Been getting it for $3.599 up here on the far NE for the last couple of weeks.


where?

work close to 410/35 interchange (think Perrin-Beitel side of town) and haven't seen that!


Which is ****ing SAD that the morons have us slobbering over still greater than 3 buck gas...Just less greater than 3 bucks gas.
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nortex97
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1:12p, 10/5/26
AG
USO is still at an unsustainable price.

1 year chart. I just jumped into a couple Dec 18 shorts. No way Iran lasts that long, in any case and I doubt the Russians are offline that long either.
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Im Gipper
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1:13p, 10/5/26
The Trump administration has already proven that they can lower gas very quickly

I'm Gipper
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EMY92
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In reply to Dimond1968 • 3:08p, 10/5/26
AG
Dimond1968 said:
No Spin Ag said:
nortex97 said:
Dan Scott said:
Of course Iran War is responsible as evidenced by all the talking points that paying a little more now is worth it to prevent Iran from having a weapon.

The problem is this war has gone on much longer than expected and I'd bet a large sum of money if Trump knew he'd be dealing with this in October, he probably wouldn't have done it. This is a long excursion.

If not for Iran war, China isn't banning exports. China banned exports because there refineries were running less with their crude supplie impacted because of the Iran war.

Inaccurate talking points but the reality is that we need the Russians back online/exporting again to get diesel prices down. There's no shortage of oil flowing (as reflected by WTI hovering around $90 at the moment).


22 refineries have been struck in Russia. That's the proximate cause of the diesel crack spread and pricing today, full stop. And, it's ongoing. China has no shortage at all of oil for their refineries. The 2 percent of the global oil market the IRGC had provided is...ultimately insignificant, especially to American refineries/gas prices.


Any chance Trump asked Putin to, I don't know, stop his invasion of Ukraine and remove all his troops?

I'd imagine Ukraine would stop defending themselves with these strikes of Putin did that and whatever effects your strikes have on oiland diesel would stop being affected. I mean, that's just me.


Russia isn't funded by the U.S. and run by the CIA. Ukraine is. When I saw the U.S. had greenlit strikes on Russian refineries I couldn't believe it. Trump might've asked for this to stop. It has not stopped.

The US is not funding Ukraine anymore and Trump cut off the intelligence pipeline early in his term. We're still selling them weapons, but we have much less control over what they hit than we used to.
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Rossticus
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In reply to BigRobSA • 3:36p, 10/5/26
BigRobSA said:
Rossticus said:
BigRobSA said:
$3.799/gal as lowest, by me on the Souttttttthhhhsiiiiiiiide of SA, $3.959 as a high. For regular unleaded.

A lot of my coworkers have already been slowing down "doing things" that involves driving. This keeps up and 2028 is in jeopardy. A lot of them, mostly Hispanic, voted for Trump if they voted at all. I doubt they're voting for Talarico, but they're also just not going to vote, here, too.


Been getting it for $3.599 up here on the far NE for the last couple of weeks.


where?

work close to 410/35 interchange (think Perrin-Beitel side of town) and haven't seen that!


Which is ****ing SAD that the morons have us slobbering over still greater than 3 buck gas...Just less greater than 3 bucks gas.


Was at Costco but looks like it's $3.699 today. Costco and Buc-ee's in New Braunfels are $3.499

Gas Buddy says that the VP at 8030 S Zarzamora has it for $3.599 (cash) today.
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DeschutesAg
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In reply to Im Gipper • 4:03p, 10/5/26
Im Gipper said:
The Trump administration has already proven that they can lower gas very quickly
Actually it was the Saudis, UAE, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain who proved that they can collectively increase or lower US gasoline prices quickly.

Except now, due to the war and attacks by the Iranians and Houthis, those countries can't do that.
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Dungeon Crawler Carl
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5:03p, 10/5/26
Dungeon Crawler Carl
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5:14p, 10/5/26




Staff please keep this here, this has everything to do with the price of oil, gas and everything else in the world.

Why????? If the House of Saud takes an L, the Petro Dollar takes a swift kick to the privates that we will all feel.
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No Spin Ag
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In reply to Dungeon Crawler Carl • 5:28p, 10/5/26
Dungeon Crawler Carl said:




Staff please keep this here, this has everything to do with the price of oil, gas and everything else in the world.

Why????? If the House of Saud takes an L, the Petro Dollar takes a swift kick to the privates that we will all feel.

Wouldn't this group be enough to keep the Houthis in check at the bare minimum?

It would really be the suck if this group wasn't enough.

Also, just wondering, why aren't we helping SA with the Houthis? I know they asked for help, or do we not have enough whatever to spare anything to help them?
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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BigRobSA
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In reply to nortex97 • 5:34p, 10/5/26
nortex97 said:
I just jumped into a couple Dec 18 shorts. No way Iran lasts that long, in any case and I doubt the Russians are offline that long either.

LOL

Just "two more weeks"?
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Billys Cesspool Enjoyer
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5:48p, 10/5/26
Dungeon Crawler Carl
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In reply to No Spin Ag • 6:11p, 10/5/26
It's going to be interesting to watch. Probably going to be used as a defense force to make sure the Yemenis don't make the 500 mile Toyota gun truck thunder run to Mecca (highly unlikely but not impossible).

However it shows how concerned the Saudis are about their situation to have to activate a military alliance.


The Blowfish don't need to take Riyadh, they just need to keep successfully lobbing missiles into the oil infrastructure to bring them down.

Cut off the financial means and the royal family can't pay off the tribes that support them.
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CascadiaAg
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7:39p, 10/5/26
bad trump

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Queso1
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In reply to CascadiaAg • 7:41p, 10/5/26
AG
What makes you say that? I really don't know anything about this.
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Old McDonald
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In reply to Less Evil Hank Scorpio • 9:53p, 10/5/26
Less Evil Hank Scorpio said:
I feel like it's a little bit of a smoke and mirrors game to now be ignoring the price of crude. Before we started the Iran war, oil was around $60, so we're still up ~50%.

On average, you get ~20 gallons of gasoline, 12 gallons of diesel, 4 gallons of jet fuel, and the remainder is other byproducts like asphalt and petrochem feedstocks.

The disproportionate rise in diesel is a result of the constraints of refining capacity, but even if no refineries were taken offline, Diesel would be $5.25-$5.75/gallon today assuming the economics from pre-Iran war scale proportionately.

The whole thing is a cluster**** and while the russian refining picture makes it worse, it is still a massive own-goal by Trump.

smoke and mirrors is the gentle way of framing it. any time someone tries to blame ukraine-russia and supposedly diminished refinery capacity as the reasons for high diesel prices without mentioning the iran war and its consequences, they're mostly just parroting the white house's accountability-dodging of the leading cause:
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nortex97
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In reply to CascadiaAg • 6:28a, 10/6/26
AG
What is wrong/bad with him taking actions to lower the costs of diesel for Americans/truckers?

WTI has dropped down to $87 and gasoline futures are now pushing toward $3.20 Nov. contracts. Even the euro Brent dipped to $97.

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Dungeon Crawler Carl
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:25a, 10/6/26
When are you going to tell everyone what has happened to the Saudi refineries, pipelines and shipping over the last couple days?

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No Spin Ag
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:36a, 10/6/26
nortex97 said:
What is wrong/bad with him taking actions to lower the costs of diesel for Americans/truckers?

WTI has dropped down to $87 and gasoline futures are now pushing toward $3.20 Nov. contracts. Even the euro Brent dipped to $97.



Gas is $3.99 on average, so a drop of about a quarter will bring it down to about a dollar and seventy cents more than it was before Trump attacked Iran that's still about 85% more.

So that twenty five cents, or about 6% drop in price is something, it literally is a drop in the bucket compared to what we're all all paying.

It's something, sure, but something worth celebrating, not so much.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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AGHouston11
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:41a, 10/6/26
AG
nortex97 said:
What is wrong/bad with him taking actions to lower the costs of diesel for Americans/truckers?

WTI has dropped down to $87 and gasoline futures are now pushing toward $3.20 Nov. contracts. Even the euro Brent dipped to $97.



So it says
Below $4 in weeks
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Dungeon Crawler Carl
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7:54a, 10/6/26






For a bunch of backward ass mountain muslims, they sure are causing a lot of chaos.
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nortex97
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In reply to Dungeon Crawler Carl • 8:03a, 10/6/26
AG
Dungeon Crawler Carl said:
When are you going to tell everyone what has happened to the Saudi refineries, pipelines and shipping over the last couple days?

Sorry, they hit some storage tanks while retreating largely from the island/coastal positions they took last month. Saudis seem to be operating well, though the storage tanks of course produce a lot of black smoke when lit up.


Clearly, based on the data, the Saudis are shipping a lot of oil via both ship and pipelines (above east west pipeline to yanbu is at 5.8 mbpd vs. capacity of 7 right now) at this point. Is that the information you wanted me to share?

USO pre-market is down to $141, which I am loving, though I wish I had picked up some nearer-term shorts also.
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Dungeon Crawler Carl
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:07a, 10/6/26


Quote:
Yemen's Houthis appear to have struck the Saudi Aramco oil refinery at Rabigh on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast, with new satellite imagery today showing a black smoke plume roughly 80 km trailing away from the site and the fire centred on the oil storage tanks and pressurised storage vessels.

NASA FIRMS recorded a fire radiative power of 126 megawatts at the refinery, with a reading of 367 Kelvin, the ceiling the sensor can register, meaning the fire is hotter than the data shows.

It is the first strike on the 400,000 barrels per day refinery since March 2022.


In your opinion, How long will this one be down for repairs?


its an ongoing battle. The narrative you are pushing is running out of physical molecules with every small disruption to production.

It's not that I want one side to win or lose, I am posting the counter opinions to show how much trouble we are actually in.


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nortex97
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In reply to Dungeon Crawler Carl • 8:21a, 10/6/26
AG
I'm not criticizing your post/opinion at all, I just see 'storage tanks burning hot' and don't think that will even knock off the refinery. Grok:
Quote:
Yemen's Houthis said on Monday (October 5) that they struck the Aramco-linked refinery at Rabigh with missiles and drones and that a fire broke out. Saudi authorities condemned the claimed attacks (which also included King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and sites in the south). Reporting from OilPrice.com and others noted circulating videos of a fire involving what appears to be a storage tank, plus satellite indications of elevated thermal activity and a smoke plume consistent with a fire at or near storage infrastructure. One secondary report cited fire radiative power around 410 MW. Those visuals have not been independently authenticated as current strike damage, and Saudi officials have not confirmed a hit on Rabigh or any resulting outage.

Petro Rabigh (the AramcoSumitomo joint venture) is the roughly 400,000 b/d integrated refining and petrochemical complex on the Red Sea coast north of Jeddah. A storage-tank fire, even if confirmed, would not by itself establish that crude distillation or the rest of the plant has stopped. In past Saudi energy incidents, officials have often reported fires as contained without a lasting loss of refining capacity; that pattern has not yet been tested here because no official damage assessment has been released.

When the Ukrainians/Houthi's hit the actual cracking tanks/furnaces etc. that is when substantial downtime becomes a risk/reality.
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No Spin Ag
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In reply to Dungeon Crawler Carl • 8:43a, 10/6/26
Dungeon Crawler Carl said:






For a bunch of backward ass mountain muslims, they sure are causing a lot of chaos.


Russia is saying the same about the Ukrainians and we all see how long that's been going on.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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Eliminatus
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In reply to Dungeon Crawler Carl • 1:26p, 10/6/26
AG
Dungeon Crawler Carl said:




For a bunch of backward ass mountain muslims, they sure are causing a lot of chaos.


They are so ignorant, they don't know they are supposed to be bad at war. So they just make do and **** **** up in their own ways. And they have gotten pretty good at it.

Also, helps they are an ideologically driven people used to living "in the suck" so the normal deprivations most can leverage against opponents don't really apply here. Last factor is the two powers facing them this time aren't it. The Sauds have always been a joke (though they can turn it around I guess) and the Yemeni proper are probably worse off than the Houthis in most areas. We shall see in the end though of course as always. War has a way of going sideways sometimes. Especially if someone steps in fully.

Til then, we can only assume more things will blow up in the BaM straight.

The world's oil problems aren't going away any time soon it appears.
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torrid
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1:26p, 10/6/26
AG
I'm lusting for cheaper gas.
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Eliminatus
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In reply to torrid • 1:28p, 10/6/26
AG
torrid said:
I'm lusting for cheaper gas.


It's going to put a damper on the upcoming holiday travel season, that's for damn sure. Going to be a very popular talking point in the public I imagine in the coming months.
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Dungeon Crawler Carl
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In reply to Eliminatus • 2:34p, 10/6/26
And the hits just keep coming. It's not just the price of the oil/refined products, it's the cost of shipping the materials through the strait(s) skyrocketing.



Those cost of Thanksgiving dinner/travel and cost of Christmas compared to last year "news" stories are going to hit like a sack of bricks.
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Dungeon Crawler Carl
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4:54p, 10/6/26
It's almost comical at this point......

Quote:
Venezuela's Cardon refinery halted after fire

Oct 6 (Reuters) - Venezuela's Cardon refinery, the country's second-largest with a 310,000-barrel-per-day capacity, was halted due to a fire at one of its processing units, eight sources with knowledge of the matter said on Tuesday.

Fires, power interruptions and outages are common at facilities operated by state-run oil company PDVSA, and can affect supply of essential fuels for the domestic market, like gasoline and diesel.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/venezuelas-cardon-refinery-halted-amid-fire-sources-say-2026-10-06/





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nortex97
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In reply to Dungeon Crawler Carl • 5:02p, 10/6/26
AG
Probably not a big deal, and it's been a regular occurrence for years because the state-run Venezuelan oil industry is a disaster. It will take time to fix overall, and this incident won't impact US gasoline prices at all.
Quote:
U.S. Energy Information Administration data show Venezuelan petroleum-product shipments to the United States rising sharply in early 2026 (about 13.9 million barrels in JanuaryJuly, up from 2.6 million a year earlier), mostly residual fuel oil and unfinished oils, alongside much larger crude flows. U.S. licenses covering Venezuelan-origin oil and products have allowed these cargoes.

Cardn itself (about 310,000 barrels per day nameplate) mainly supplies the domestic market and has run well below capacity, with frequent outages.

It was extinguished in less than 90 minutes I read. This refinery is a prime example of why they need Chevron etc's investment. They could and should be producing much more for both domestic and export purposes, to say nothing of crude.
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Dan Scott
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In reply to Dungeon Crawler Carl • 5:54p, 10/6/26
AG
Dungeon Crawler Carl said:
And the hits just keep coming. It's not just the price of the oil/refined products, it's the cost of shipping the materials through the strait(s) skyrocketing.



Those cost of Thanksgiving dinner/travel and cost of Christmas compared to last year "news" stories are going to hit like a sack of bricks.


The Gulf states are discounting their crude to make up for the higher price of freight. As more crude moves out of Hormuz through shuttle, it ties of the availability of VLCCs which is driving up rates. So if you're Saudi, ADNOC, or Iraq, it's either sell at a discount or don't sell at all.

Normally this high freight would eat at the refiners margins but if the Gulf Stated will discount their crude, refining margins will remain atttactive and it will drive even more demand for crude transportation which will drive up rates.

Since the STS strategy started in July, tanker rates have mooned. Check out the Tanker ETF BWET. Incredible gains.
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Dan Scott
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6:05p, 10/6/26
AG
If you want a 4D/5D chess this, Americans have paid about $130B incremental for gasoline/diesel. But the valuation for American O&G has gone up many multiples more. We're the number 1 O&G exporter in the world. Whatever the investment was going to be to get Venezuela going, we've made it and more.
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