https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/jp-morgan-says-it-has-no-clear-oil-market-endgame-iran-conflict-drags-2026-09-17/JP Morgan said on Thursday that it does not have a clear baseline view for oil markets for the first time since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran.
"We simply don't know how to model the endgame," analysts at the bank noted.
The note flagged that at the beginning of the conflict, JP Morgan had assumed there were some economic thresholds that the U.S. administration would not cross, but six months into the conflict, many of those lines have been crossed with no clear exit strategy in view.
Global inventories of crude and refined products have fallen by about 555 million barrels since the conflict began, only around one-third of the decline the bank had projected earlier this year.
At the same time, global oil demand has run about 4.4 million barrels per day below year-ago levels, helping offset supply losses, the bank said.
"By leaning much more on demand destruction and much less on stock draws, the market has been able to absorb an extraordinary supply disruption without a sustained rise in crude prices. Since the conflict began, Brent has averaged just $94," it noted.
Global oil supply and demand look set to fall further than previously expected this year, the
International Energy Agency said last week.
The bank said significant inventories remain available, particularly in China, Europe, Japan and South Korea, providing a buffer against a prolonged disruption. That could limit the need for crude prices to rise substantially in the near term.
Still, it cautioned that if Middle East supply disruptions persist, oil prices could move higher later this year as inventories decline further and the market becomes increasingly dependent on demand destruction to maintain balance.
"In short, there is still enough dry powder to keep prices containedfor now," the bank said.