No Spin Ag said:
Good read. Thanks for helping put all of this into a very wide context.
Yes. That really was a helpful summary.
Gas is now under $3
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Yes. That really was a helpful summary.
Dungeon Crawler Carl said:
I hope y'all are getting prepared for whats coming.
Sadly, I think that all hell is about to break loose.
We're already seeing instability in the developing world.
There are already 1/2 BILLION people living under fuel rationing (combined population of Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka).
Slovenia has also implemented rationing, which is interesting because it is in the EU.
Vestal_Flame said:Dungeon Crawler Carl said:
I hope y'all are getting prepared for whats coming.
Sadly, I think that all hell is about to break loose.
We're already seeing instability in the developing world.
There are already 1/2 BILLION people living under fuel rationing (combined population of Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka).
Slovenia has also implemented rationing, which is interesting because it is in the EU.
Agreed. All things are looking very no bueno in a couple of weeks if things don't change, and things need to change.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
Here's a good inventory of the impact in the developing world: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/15/world/asia/syria-fuel-price-protests-world.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
Here's the worst of it.
We had "nothing in the tank" against Kentucky, yesterday.
Here's the worst of it.
We had "nothing in the tank" against Kentucky, yesterday.
Overnight attack on 220,000 b/d Kapotnya refinery near Moscow may inspire another leg to diesel rally tomorrow. If Kapotnya is kaput, it removes a huge chunk of refined products for Muscovites.
— Tom Kloza (@TomKloza) September 20, 2026
All those barrels that refinery produced are going to have to come from somewhere else now assuming demand doesn't drop. That means less Russian production hits the global market that bypasses sanctions. Prices go up. Fortunately sounds like the Exxon Joliet refinery is back up.
And we're entering winter so I'm assuming there is probably some front running of heating oil to make sure there's enough supply at these prices if it's expected this will continue onto the winter months that's driving the recent run.
Starting to sound like Bernie.
Big Oil is telling us we can’t embargo diesel. IF TRUE THEY STILL DONT HV TO MAKE SAME PROFIT OFF US FARMERS AND TRUCKERS THAT THEY MAKE IN FOREIGN SALES
— Chuck Grassley (@ChuckGrassley) September 20, 2026
AMERICA FIRST
Found Bernie's tweet.
Average gas price: $4.48
— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) September 20, 2026
Average diesel price: $6.50
2026 BIG OIL PROFITS: $125 billion
ENOUGH. Congress must stop Big Oil from profiteering while Americans can’t afford to fill up their gas tanks.
There's never been a scenario like this. Been seeing some gas stations that are not stocking diesel anymore.
Covid demand destruction was because no one could drive. 2008 was complicated and had multiple factors. But one had to do with several protests at refineries. Other had to do with big investor manipulation. So all either short term or artificial.
This time the main area of the globe producing oil is destroying itself. So there's true supply destruction.
Demand destruction only goes so far. Yes people travel less. Choose more efficient cars. But most use of oil is necessary. Freight, farming, driving to your job.
Covid demand destruction was because no one could drive. 2008 was complicated and had multiple factors. But one had to do with several protests at refineries. Other had to do with big investor manipulation. So all either short term or artificial.
This time the main area of the globe producing oil is destroying itself. So there's true supply destruction.
Demand destruction only goes so far. Yes people travel less. Choose more efficient cars. But most use of oil is necessary. Freight, farming, driving to your job.
And unfortunately it seems like we (our government) have no real plan on how to fix this in the near future.
[We're going to keep this to a discussion on gas prices, trends, supply disruptions, and potential solutions. To the extent the Iran conflict influences those items, it's fair game for discussion, but we're going to remove any posts that are derails, like Trump is a dummy (or a rock star) as it derails the thread. Take that discussion to a different thread please. There are ongoing threads on F16 to get deeper into the political fallout and military action considerations of the Iran conflict -- Staff]
No Spin Ag said:Vestal_Flame said:Dungeon Crawler Carl said:
I hope y'all are getting prepared for whats coming.
Sadly, I think that all hell is about to break loose.
We're already seeing instability in the developing world.
There are already 1/2 BILLION people living under fuel rationing (combined population of Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka).
Slovenia has also implemented rationing, which is interesting because it is in the EU.
Agreed. All things are looking very no bueno in a couple of weeks if things don't change, and things need to change.
What options are available to the president that he could actually change things? It really seems he doesn't have any options.
The first option is to outlaw the export of refined product. That would, at least, change the politics. A farm subsidy bill is probably your second choice.
AGHouston11 said:No Spin Ag said:Vestal_Flame said:Dungeon Crawler Carl said:
I hope y'all are getting prepared for whats coming.
Sadly, I think that all hell is about to break loose.
We're already seeing instability in the developing world.
There are already 1/2 BILLION people living under fuel rationing (combined population of Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka).
Slovenia has also implemented rationing, which is interesting because it is in the EU.
Agreed. All things are looking very no bueno in a couple of weeks if things don't change, and things need to change.
What options are available to the president that he could actually change things? It really seems he doesn't have any options.
And no one to blame but himself if that's the case. I hope he really does get "best people" on this, cause I just read there's a new security alert by the US Department of State regarding possible unforseen circumstances.
That might mean prices might go up with that our there now
Okay, I spoke too soon, or late:
Quote:
Brent crude futures climbed 81 cents, or 0.78%, to $104.68 a barrel by 2202 GMT while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $101.06 a barrel, up 76 cents, or 0.76%.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
FWIW Brent and WTI futures have reversed those gains and are now down. As of the moment WTI is at $99.85
Not really going to help with diesel but also not a sign the market is fearing escalation.
Not really going to help with diesel but also not a sign the market is fearing escalation.
Gas prices were much higher under Biden than under “TRUMP.” So were almost all other prices. President DJT
— Commentary Donald J. Trump Truth Social Posts On X (@TrumpTruthOnX) September 21, 2026
( TS: Sep 20 2026, 10:02 PM ET ) pic.twitter.com/JQHKaUWVHz
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pathetic
AGHouston11 said:No Spin Ag said:Vestal_Flame said:Dungeon Crawler Carl said:
I hope y'all are getting prepared for whats coming.
.
What options are available to the president that he could actually change things? It really seems he doesn't have any options.
The Iranians most recent demand is If Trump resigned they would reopen the SoH
Seems likely they are trolling the White House but Trump admitting defeat is likely part of reopening the SoH
Or Trump has to find away to win this War without causing the irreparable damage to global O&G supply chain
Oil bulls: pic.twitter.com/rF7GbHyadj
— Anti-Blackpiller (@antiblackpiller) September 21, 2026
Folks who think it will go back up have a good opportunity to go long on USO right now.
WTI now trading below $98, down about 9% from last Monday. Brent at $101.
Maybe there's some hope the UN side meetings will result in progress.
Maybe there's some hope the UN side meetings will result in progress.
It's not the oil price (that can be manipulated via paper contracts) that is really driving this, it's the refined products price (physical product that is burned within engines).
It's a global market with national, regional, and local impacts.
If you disrupt the supply chain by 5 to 10 million barrels a day for six months for a product that makes every economy around the world function, it's going to cause pricing issues.
Eventually the fair market price for gas, diesel, heating oil, and jet fuel will be found. Hint: All of those prices are going to be much higher than what we've paid in the past for a while.......
BREAKING: according to live GasBuddy data, 10% of the nation's stations are now seeing diesel over $7 per gallon... $7.01/gal, while the bottom 10% average $5.83/gal. Median price of diesel $6.39/gal. Expecting further increases to all of these metrics.
— Patrick De Haan (@GasBuddyGuy) September 20, 2026
Saw $4.29 for gas at some stations i passed late last night. ***sigh***
It's certainly won't have an impact on diesel right now but considering last week the fear was escalation, this week there seems to be movement in the markets indicating signs of de-escalation, which is good long-term for all products.
$6.39 for diesel for us. Going to look at a beater car to buy for the interim to commute to work. Will help some, but I use my truck for ag work after work and guiding the rest of the day.
nortex97 said:Oil bulls: pic.twitter.com/rF7GbHyadj
— Anti-Blackpiller (@antiblackpiller) September 21, 2026
Folks who think it will go back up have a good opportunity to go long on USO right now.
I don't think this talking point has the flex that you think it does.
Well, I can't remember the last time I agreed with you about anything at all, so whatever. Crude futures look set to crash into the 80's today.
Quote:
Oil prices decline on hopes for US-Iran diplomacy at UN General Assembly
Oil prices have slid to their lowest in 11 days as investors hoped for diplomatic progress in the US war on Iran during this week's UN General Assembly meeting in New York City.
Brent crude futures and US West Texas Intermediate crude touched their lowest since September 10. The Brent contract for November was at $101.75 a barrel at 08:59 GMT, down $2.12, or 2 percent.
The WTI October contract that expires on Tuesday fell $1.96, or 2 percent, to $98.34 a barrel. The November contract stood at $94.16.
Iran and the US exchanged new threats on Sunday although President Trump said he would be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is expected to be in New York.
"It seems that a degree of risk premium is being removed from oil prices on hopes that a diplomatic path to de-escalate the US-Iran war may arrive this week," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
and as soon as something escalates again we go right back to square 1.
how about focus on longer term trends instead of picking daily movements that have no immediate meaning in reality
how about focus on longer term trends instead of picking daily movements that have no immediate meaning in reality
It's the lowest in 11 days. Yes, something could always trigger a price increase, but the supply has now not been a problem for quite some time (but for some refineries I guess in Europe/Russia, of their own creation). The pricing of refined products will follow over time, as usual.
I'm up over 40 percent on my Oct 16 USO Puts, will probably sell in the 50-70 percent margins. I didn't put a lot into it, but it's a nice little play, offsetting some higher gas bills the past few months, anyway.
I'm up over 40 percent on my Oct 16 USO Puts, will probably sell in the 50-70 percent margins. I didn't put a lot into it, but it's a nice little play, offsetting some higher gas bills the past few months, anyway.
Crude In The 80's is bad news it means Global Refining Capacity has been more impacted than was priced into the market
Less Evil Hank Scorpio
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AG
Sq 17 said:
Crude In The 80's is bad news it means Global Refining Capacity has been more impacted than was priced into the market
Ah ok I was trying to understand why we'd have this big dip, but it makes sense that refining demand is lower.
Are refined product spreads through the roof?
BREAKING: France's fuel shortage is surging, with 16% of the country's stations now out of petrol or diesel, one in six, up from 11% on Saturday, and 18% in Île-de-France around Paris, per government figures published this morning.
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) September 21, 2026
Pays de la Loire is at 20%, Grand Est at 19%,…
Is it getting better or worse in France?
Less Evil Hank Scorpio said:Sq 17 said:
Crude In The 80's is bad news it means Global Refining Capacity has been more impacted than was priced into the market
Ah ok I was trying to understand why we'd have this big dip, but it makes sense that refining demand is lower.
Are refined product spreads through the roof?
Yes Diesel , Jet fuel , and Gas are all at record highs and Oil is not at record highs
Refiners making more money and possible some insurance risk premiums making prices go up
Phase 2 ( Epic Fury ) of the Iran War is a failed policy initiative
That just keeps getting worse
No amount of messaging is going turn this F into a Gentlemen's C
To get it back to fuel prices
When the first spike in Jet Fuel pushed Spirit out of business it should have been obvious that the longer this went on the greater the economic fall out would be
Heating oil is probably next and yes Blue states don't count but Rs live in Blue states and the typical Heating oil purchaser owns an older home and lives in non urban area ( Think Harrisburg PA). Those people are going to be as mad as the Truckers when they see what heating oil costs
That just keeps getting worse
No amount of messaging is going turn this F into a Gentlemen's C
To get it back to fuel prices
When the first spike in Jet Fuel pushed Spirit out of business it should have been obvious that the longer this went on the greater the economic fall out would be
Heating oil is probably next and yes Blue states don't count but Rs live in Blue states and the typical Heating oil purchaser owns an older home and lives in non urban area ( Think Harrisburg PA). Those people are going to be as mad as the Truckers when they see what heating oil costs
What's the general thought here on how to get gas prices down?
Crude down 4% but RBOB is down 1%
A crude surplus and a refining shortage can make crude cheaper while gasoline stays expensive or becomes even more expensive. Cheap crude does not automatically mean cheap gasoline. If refining is the bottleneck like now, gasoline trades according to the scarcity of finished gasoline. The crude producer suffers and the end customer may receive little or none of the crude price savings. The refiner prints money.
There is no SPR for refined product. By releasing the SPR all we did was keep the crude price artificially low and increase the refiners margin.
A crude surplus and a refining shortage can make crude cheaper while gasoline stays expensive or becomes even more expensive. Cheap crude does not automatically mean cheap gasoline. If refining is the bottleneck like now, gasoline trades according to the scarcity of finished gasoline. The crude producer suffers and the end customer may receive little or none of the crude price savings. The refiner prints money.
There is no SPR for refined product. By releasing the SPR all we did was keep the crude price artificially low and increase the refiners margin.
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