Great, informative...not just sunshine pumping....post.

Thank you!!

Shutting down the Lyondell refinery was a mistake. Recycling plastics is not really a productive endeavor compared to producing diesel fuel. But I don't think that decision was driven by politics for the most part.

That refinery was a POS that barely broke even. Then with Covid like every other refinery it struggled. Russia/ukraine war brought refineries back from the big hole

Lots of TV stories Friday and Saturday about "record high gas", and how upset people are,then in the next story talk about how high priced plane tickets aren't stopping Labor Day travelers and how more Americans than ever are hitting the road for the holiday weekend.

Which is it? I mean, meat prices are really high right now, so I'm buying less meat. Gas prices don't really seem to be slowing anyone down, but let's run the stories anyway like it's some national crisis. Getting old.

BTW , as a kid, I saw what a Real gas crisis looked like during the Carter administration. This ain't squat.

Dan Scott said:

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That refinery was a POS that barely broke even. Then with Covid like every other refinery it struggled. Russia/ukraine war brought refineries back from the big hole

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That is true. But the one just down the road is now printing money.

Aust Ag said:

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Lots of TV stories Friday and Saturday about "record high gas", and how upset people are,then in the next story talk about how high priced plane tickets aren't stopping Labor Day travelers and how more Americans than ever are hitting the road for the holiday weekend.

Which is it? I mean, meat prices are really high right now, so I'm buying less meat. Gas prices don't really seem to be slowing anyone down, but let's run the stories anyway like it's some national crisis. Getting old.

BTW , as a kid, I saw what a Real gas crisis looked like during the Carter administration. This ain't squat.

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It's a mixed bag and can't be summarized in a sound bite. The well-to-do are funding that high priced travel you mention. And anybody working or investing heavily in industries that are caught up in the AI buildout craze are also feeling good right now. No doubt about it.

But that's only a slice of the population. Those in basic material industries impacted by the housing slowdown, and those lower on the economic ladder (which is a large chunk of the population), aren't feeling too good about current conditions.

Gas prices are actually normalized for inflation over the last 20 years. It's the bump since the Iran war that has caught attention from many. And for those folks who are struggling, it's an easy target to focus your dissatisfaction. Politically, when people aren't happy about the economy, telling them that everything is ok is a losing message. Republicans are going to get nailed in the midterms if their leadership continues with a tone-deaf approach.

MemphisAg1 said:

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Aust Ag said:

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Lots of TV stories Friday and Saturday about "record high gas", and how upset people are,then in the next story talk about how high priced plane tickets aren't stopping Labor Day travelers and how more Americans than ever are hitting the road for the holiday weekend.

Which is it? I mean, meat prices are really high right now, so I'm buying less meat. Gas prices don't really seem to be slowing anyone down, but let's run the stories anyway like it's some national crisis. Getting old.

BTW , as a kid, I saw what a Real gas crisis looked like during the Carter administration. This ain't squat.

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It's a mixed bag and can't be summarized in a sound bite. The well-to-do are funding that high priced travel you mention. And anybody working or investing heavily in industries that are caught up in the AI buildout craze are also feeling good right now. No doubt about it.

But that's only a slice of the population. Those in basic material industries impacted by the housing slowdown, and those lower on the economic ladder (which is a large chunk of the population), aren't feeling too good about current conditions.

Gas prices are actually normalized for inflation over the last 20 years. It's the bump since the Iran war that has caught attention from many. And for those folks who are struggling, it's an easy target to focus your dissatisfaction. Politically, when people aren't happy about the economy, telling them that everything is ok is a losing message. Republicans are going to get nailed in the midterms if their leadership continues with a tone-deaf approach.

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And revolving debt. Credit card debt is up $21B in Q2 after a small decrease in Q1. By the end of Q3 it will be back up to the all time high from late 2025. 90-day Delinquencies are up over 13%, which suggests people are fueling (lol pun) their travel and daily commute with credit cards they won't ever pay back (though QoQ delinquencies were mostly flat in Q2).

You can swap chicken for beef or start eating store brand pasta. You can't really stop driving to work

Very true, but I guess anything that makes people's "fun times"(non-work trips)more expensive, they're gonna get mad. Because they're going to do it anyway, high gas prices be damned.

docb said:

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Dan Scott said:

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That refinery was a POS that barely broke even. Then with Covid like every other refinery it struggled. Russia/ukraine war brought refineries back from the big hole

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That is true. But the one just down the road is now printing money.

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That, sir, is illegal!!

Biden shouldn't even be on the table at this point.

Guy probably hasn't done anything meaningful since he flubbed the debate against trump. My eyes go up into my skull when I hear someone from congress trying to blame Biden. Nobody is buying it. The dude hasn't been relevant in close to 3 years at this point.

Aust Ag said:

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Very true, but I guess anything that makes people's "fun times"(non-work trips)more expensive, they're gonna get mad. Because they're going to do it anyway, high gas prices be damned.

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Absolutely true for a large part of the population. If you're getting squeezed and have given up, then racking up credit cards they debt doesn't matter because you have no intention of ever paying it back. It's why consumer spending and volume of travel are kinda misleading indicators.

If credit card debt is down, delinquencies are under 5%, and people are still taking trips to the Grand Canyon then great. But rising credit card debt, rising delinquencies, and trips to the Grand Canyon are a symptom of legitimate trouble. Auto loan delinquencies are up to 6% as well (with subprimes over 7%, so even solid credit people are defaulting), which indicates that people are not racking up credit card debt to make ends meet while paying structured debts… they're squeezing everywhere

Aust Ag said:

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Lots of TV stories Friday and Saturday about "record high gas", and how upset people are,then in the next story talk about how high priced plane tickets aren't stopping Labor Day travelers and how more Americans than ever are hitting the road for the holiday weekend.

Which is it? I mean, meat prices are really high right now, so I'm buying less meat. Gas prices don't really seem to be slowing anyone down, but let's run the stories anyway like it's some national crisis. Getting old.

BTW , as a kid, I saw what a Real gas crisis looked like during the Carter administration. This ain't squat.

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Well said. The answer to your question is, it doesn't fit the narrative.

Now the narrative shifts from "yea, so what travel volume was up… it's all on credit cards and the wolf man knocketh on November 3rd."

Are gas prices higher and that's impacting family budgets? Of course. Are diesel prices squeezing guys up and down the supply chain? Yes that is happening.

Is all that a reason we needed to carefully consider engaging Iran, taking action on Maduro, and handling the un****ing of Ukraine / Russia? Yes, absolutely.

Now, there does seem to be multiple perspectives on how bad things are, what suffering means, comparison to similar periods, and what's worth the pain and what isn't.

I contend it's worth the pain, though I also strongly contend the pain is way overstated - some of that is based on varying backgrounds and demographic of posters. A lot of the overstatement, in my opinion, is driven by MSM and others to drive an anti-Trump narrative.

I see things different than most. Sort of the point of these forums and threads.

About the post that only the wealthy can afford to fly.
Airports are starting to resemble Walmarts.
They're getting the money from somewhere.

Secolobo said:

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About the post that only the wealthy can afford to fly.
Airports are starting to resemble Walmarts.
They're getting the money from somewhere.

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The taxpayer

Secolobo said:

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About the post that only the wealthy can afford to fly.
Airports are starting to resemble Walmarts.
They're getting the money from somewhere.

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They're getting their money from the same place girls got their money for Taylor Swift tickets - mom and dad, and credit cards.

nortex97 said:

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BigRobSA said:

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nortex97 said:

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BigRobSA said:

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Biden was a ****ing tard, no doubt. He's been out of office for at least 2 yrs now ( not officially, but YKWIM), the constant blame of "the last guy" gets tiresome. Especially when "the current guy" is doing his damnedest to goat **** things up worse.

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Refineries can't be re-opened/rebuilt in a few months. It takes consistent governance. And we aren't protecting the Russian refineries. And Newsom (Democrat policies on a state-level) has continued to drive significant capacity reduction.

Quote:

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From the 2020 peak the decline is roughly 816,000 b/cd (about 4.3%). Recent losses (LyondellBasell Houston and Phillips 66 Los Angeles in 2025) account for most of the drop after 2024.

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Lyondell closure was planned prior to Trump's inauguration.

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And, again, it's been almost 2 years. More than a few months.

We all know it takes time. We'll, it's been some time. Has anyone started working towards them getting up and running?

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Again I think your perception of timelines for these projects are not in alignment with my own. Yes, is the short answer. Notably, the war on fossil fuels of the Biden administration continues in various corners, not just California, Europe, or Russia.

Specifically, America First Refining in Brownsville, Texas is the highest-profile new project. It's been publicly highlighted, since around March as the first major new U.S. refinery in around 50 years. Their planned capacity is about 168,000 bpd, designed for domestic light shale crude, producing gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Construction start targets have been given as late 2027 after FEED. Mechanical completion is targeted for late 2028 with first full year of operations in 2029. That's just about as fast as a new refinery can be planned/constructed (in a red state), and I'd expect delays to follow, realistically.

The Lyondell facility is now going to be used to recycle plastics. There are some expansions such as a few hundred million in a Citgo Lake Charles facility (which also won't be implemented/completed until 2029) and if we do get a major deal for Canadian tar sands I'd expect more announcements but these things happen over the course of 5+ years, not on the basis of 20 months of policy change.

As Chris Wright stated this am on Fox News Sunday (too lazy to look this up for video), these are multi-decade investment decisions (including Venezuela) and it's not something that happens in a year or two, let alone a few months.

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One can only imagine how much cheaper gas will be in a decade or so.

Hell, with all that you mentioned, I'd like to think that if we were already paying just a little over $2 before Trump attacked Iran, we'll be looking at paying just a little over a buck a gallon then.

Grapesoda2525 said:

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Biden shouldn't even be on the table at this point.

Guy probably hasn't done anything meaningful since he flubbed the debate against trump. My eyes go up into my skull when I hear someone from congress trying to blame Biden. Nobody is buying it. The dude hasn't been relevant in close to 3 years at this point.

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"3"?!!!!

You are much kinder to him than I am.

Looking back, he was holding it together enough to win in '20 and that's it. And by holding it together, I mean he was able to teleprompter and glad-hand and that's it.

I'll be kind and say 6 years. And I'm stretching here.

No Spin Ag said:

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Secolobo said:

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About the post that only the wealthy can afford to fly.
Airports are starting to resemble Walmarts.
They're getting the money from somewhere.

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They're getting their money from the same place girls got their money for Taylor Swift tickets - mom and dad, and credit cards.

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Ok, so then what's the issue?

The overall point many seem unable to comprehend is that the higher gas prices have not had a stifling effect on the economy. Are people pissed off at the pump? I assume they are but they are not changing their behavior - at least not to a significant degree.

When folks want to deploy a concept of "widespread suffering", then I would expect to see evidence of people making tough choices, nor beef v chicken, sparkling wine v champagne, and whether to pay for more legroom in coach.

I have not been seeing that either reported or anecdotally. Heck, how much suffering was going on Saturday night with a packed stadium of people who paid out the 2 hole for tickets, parking, hotel, nachos and warm beer?

RBV26 continues its upward trend hanging out around 3.20. Just one month ago it was around 2.80. Can someone explain to me how that is winning?
RBX26 is up about 15% in the same time period.

flown-the-coop said:

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No Spin Ag said:

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Secolobo said:

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About the post that only the wealthy can afford to fly.
Airports are starting to resemble Walmarts.
They're getting the money from somewhere.

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They're getting their money from the same place girls got their money for Taylor Swift tickets - mom and dad, and credit cards.

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Ok, so then what's the issue?

The overall point many seem unable to comprehend is that the higher gas prices have not had a stifling effect on the economy. Are people pissed off at the pump? I assume they are but they are not changing their behavior - at least not to a significant degree.

When folks want to deploy a concept of "widespread suffering", then I would expect to see evidence of people making tough choices, nor beef v chicken, sparkling wine v champagne, and whether to pay for more legroom in coach.

I have not been seeing that either reported or anecdotally. Heck, how much suffering was going on Saturday night with a packed stadium of people who paid out the 2 hole for tickets, parking, hotel, nachos and warm beer?

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That was probably a stadium full of college grads, what about other segments of the population?

Thinks in Austin looked packed as well, though the heat cut into the beer and food purchasing by the 4th quarter.

They played Texas State, so the gen pop there was barely educated. HTH.

I don't think the discretionary spending on travel is as straightforward as y'all are making it seem.

https://institute.bankofamerica.com/economic-insights/summer-travel-2026.html

BofA data suggests the poor are being hit the hardest (as usual). Those who can afford to continue their normal habits are simply spending more, as many in this thread have suggested they do. Unfortunately, there are a lot of people for whom that is not an option.

If you look at 2024 election results, team Red succeeded bigly with poorer Americans, those who said they were worse off financially under Biden, and those who did not think the economy was doing well. After 2 years of Trump filled with trade wars, actual wars, and higher prices, will they stay loyal to team Red? Seems like an uphill battle. The Rs are going to have to convince people that the culture war is important enough to a) go vote and b) vote Republican. I'm not sure that's a winning strategy but I am not an election predictor in the least.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/national-results/general/president/0

Anyway, back to the actual topic of this thread: fuel prices are still high and as many have laid out, relief comes slowly when it requires refineries to be rebuilt. I'm not sure anyone expected Iran to start bombing their neighbors' refineries, but I have seen no one suggesting they would have done that if we hadn't attacked them. Seems like an outcome we should have considered more before doing Israel's bidding.

Ukraine hitting Russia's refineries seems to be getting a carve out as not Trump's fault, and I don't really have a problem with that. But if that is true then you can't pin all of the high oil/fuel prices of 2022 on Biden either - that was, at least to some significant degree, Russias fault as well.

Just FYI but that BofA report appears to be an outlook / forecast from the middle of May. Would be interested to see how it actually played out in the 4 months since that report.

Gas certainly crept higher.

flown-the-coop said:

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No Spin Ag said:

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Secolobo said:

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About the post that only the wealthy can afford to fly.
Airports are starting to resemble Walmarts.
They're getting the money from somewhere.

---

They're getting their money from the same place girls got their money for Taylor Swift tickets - mom and dad, and credit cards.

---

Ok, so then what's the issue?

The overall point many seem unable to comprehend is that the higher gas prices have not had a stifling effect on the economy. Are people pissed off at the pump? I assume they are but they are not changing their behavior - at least not to a significant degree.

When folks want to deploy a concept of "widespread suffering", then I would expect to see evidence of people making tough choices, nor beef v chicken, sparkling wine v champagne, and whether to pay for more legroom in coach.

I have not been seeing that either reported or anecdotally. Heck, how much suffering was going on Saturday night with a packed stadium of people who paid out the 2 hole for tickets, parking, hotel, nachos and warm beer?

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That's why I agreed with you that the word "suffering" was over/poorly used.

Now, for people whose paychecks are only enough that they can afford basic necessities and that's it. No movies at the theaters, no trips/vacations, and definitely not any travel by flight before prices jumped, their budgets got tighter and they very likely had to give up some things.

For folks like us, we see we're paying more (numbers don't lie), but we're still living just fine. There is less in our accounts, regardless of to what degree or percentage, but we're fine.

Hell, most of us just went on a Labor Day Weekend trip. Was I annoyed that I paid about 30% more in gas on this trip? Duh. Did it stop me? Let's not be silly.

But when you're talking about a packed stadium, those are not the working class barely making ends meet, much less the working poor.

Like us, those people will continue living their lives. We'll continue living our lives.

Those with less, they're living, they just have less than just numbers like we do.

And of course then there's the privileged and spoiled who live at home with mom and dad and put everything on their, or their parents, credit cards, because "tomorrow I'll pay it" is easier than having to work and earn it.

Okay, my bad if I went on a tanget, but good back and forth.

flown-the-coop said:

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Just FYI but that BofA report appears to be an outlook / forecast from the middle of May. Would be interested to see how it actually played out in the 4 months since that report.

Gas certainly crept higher.

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Yes, very true. I wish we had instantly available data, the lag is frustrating.

reineraggie09 said:

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Diesel prices jumped this week. I drive a diesel and fill up 2-3 times per week so I notice. This week's jump is due to the storm, IMO.


As for the last month, still think it's a refinery issue in general. Only way I can explain the decoupling of oil prices to finished product prices. Again, not my field which is why I asked the question.

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Karma , Gravity , the law of supply and demand are cruel, unforgiving, ill tempered women.

World wide refining capacity is either shut in because the SoH is partially closed or destroyed as part of the ongoing UKraine Russia conflict
IIRC A few weeks ago JD was asking Z to please stop blowing up Russian refineries because their is a shortage of refined products

Spirit Airlines is gone in part because of the jump In Jet Fuel

Oil has not risen as fast because of countries tapping their SPR and reports are China is buying significantly less because it is reported they have been topping off their SPR with sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil for years

gas has risen slower because most people can drive less and that cuts demand

A Saudi refinery was hit last night. 5.19 for premium gasoline in Houston.

🛢️Diesel cracks just hit record highs.

Here's why:

Global waterborne diesel exports fell to 175.7 million barrels in August, down 47 million from a year earlier, per S&P Global.

The below chart shows exactly where that supply vanished: 🇷🇺Russia and 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia.

Russia… pic.twitter.com/HRQI7R8DOS

— Jack Prandelli (@jackprandelli) September 5, 2026

Kids, I hope your powder is dry, your rations are high, and your resolve is strong because **** is going to get pretty gnarly for a bit.

BrazosDog02 said:

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Kids, I hope your powder is dry, your rations are high, and your resolve is strong because **** is going to get pretty gnarly for a bit.

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Doesn't sound like a golden age.

AggieVictor10 said:

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BrazosDog02 said:

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Kids, I hope your powder is dry, your rations are high, and your resolve is strong because **** is going to get pretty gnarly for a bit.

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Doesn't sound like a golden age.

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You have to out the red maga hat on and you'll see the light.

I heard one can make up for the fuel prices by negotiating discounts on bags of charcoal

Don't hate. Charcoal is really just IKEA gas.