[When you start the OP, then disappear for three months, and return with a single post that baits the board again, that is clearly trolling. Take a break -- Staff]

Oil down $10, but RBOB back to the recent highs. Prices at the pump are not going down.

Dan Scott said:

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Oil down $10, but RBOB back to the recent highs. Prices at the pump are not going down.

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But oil prices are down, for the fourth day in a row, so surely that means, um, something?

I mean, besides those who make money off the markets that is.

Trumps speech driving up and prices.

Still $3.73+ around SA, just drove around a lot of the city, on 410. Need to fill up after my Dr appointment. Gonna need a Xanax afterwards.

Dan Scott said:

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Trumps speech driving up and prices.

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I think the word here is that 'longer term trends' are what matters. If short term, USO is still off 1 percent this am, at time of this post.

🔴Trump: US officials met with an Iranian delegation earlier for three hours.

— FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) September 22, 2026

This feels like it's picking up steam.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent on Diesel: Examining whether a full or partial ban would work.

— FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) September 22, 2026

*ALASKA SEN. SULLIVAN CALLS FOR MORATORIUM ON US DIESEL EXPORTS

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 22, 2026

TRUMP BACKS CALL FOR BAN ON US DIESEL EXPORTS, SAYING ‘I’VE CALLED FOR THAT TOO’

— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) September 22, 2026

Banning diesel exports would wreck the world market, but it would also spike domestic gas prices and lead to fuel shortages coast to coast.

And that's before you factor in any retaliatory or panic moves from other countries

amercer said:

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Banning diesel exports would wreck the world market, but it would also spike domestic gas prices and lead to fuel shortages coast to coast.

And that's before you factor in any retaliatory or panic moves from other countries

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How would banning diesel exports lead to a spike in domestic gas prices?

It could devastate some EU and LATAM economies. In pretty quick order (and that's a lot of people, which would also hit the equities markets pretty fast). I think 10% is low given that Russia is off-line at this point thru the end of the year.

This would be absolutely disastrous for the global economy. It may help in the short term, but removing the two largest diesel exporters (US, RUS) from the global supply will just drive prices higher.

This means import heavy regions (EU, LATAM, and some APAC) will have to… https://t.co/0h0SRoK27C

— Z’s Turning 🍊 (@Z4BTC_) September 22, 2026

Trump seems to be seriously considering it but I hope it's not a blanket ban. The ironies are thick, of course, on multiple levels. Everyone I think wants gas/diesel to drop here but I am not sure what levers are available short term, that make sense.

I'm not advocating for or against it, just trying to understand the mechanics of how banning diesel exports results in domestic gas prices spiking?

The refineries are not setup so that every barrel of oil it eats, it produces only gasoline. Our refineries especially in the gulf coast are very complex and the crude it eats is different so you'll always get different product. If the refiner can't profitably sell diesel, they will cut back production which also reduces gasoline production.

It's not like other countries where the government owns the refinery. Our refineries are owned by shareholders and they try to maximize profit, they will not willingly lose money.

[Stop derailing this thread with shots at political leaders. You should have caught a clue when we removed the last two -- Staff]

[We're going to keep this to a discussion on gas prices, trends, supply disruptions, and potential solutions. To the extent the Iran conflict influences those items, it's fair game for discussion, but we're going to remove any posts that are derails, like Trump is a dummy (or a rock star) as it derails the thread. Take that discussion to a different thread please. There are ongoing threads on F16 to get deeper into the political fallout and military action considerations of the Iran conflict -- Staff]

MemphisAg1 said:

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I'm not advocating for or against it, just trying to understand the mechanics of how banning diesel exports results in domestic gas prices spiking?

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I heard someone explain that sending diesel prices through the roof would hurt the Eastern and Western coasts. We have complex diesel distribution and those places would be affected by the international prices.

I'm hoping someone in refining can answer a question for me. Say you are given a barrel of oil, which you refine into different fuels. Are the types/quantities fixed, you get X gallons of gasoline and Y gallons of diesel? Or can you optimize the process to yield one more than the other?

The reason I ask is gasoline is only slightly expensive, relatively speaking, while diesel is crazy expensive. I'm wondering if more gas is bring produced to the detriment of diesel supplies.

Marco Rubio claims that if it wasn't for Trump, diesel prices would be $18 a gallon 🙃 pic.twitter.com/YoI0FEPbXq

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 22, 2026

This one might come back to haunt him........

torrid said:

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I'm hoping someone in refining can answer a question for me. Say you are given a barrel of oil, which you refine into different fuels. Are the types/quantities fixed, you get X gallons of gasoline and Y gallons of diesel? Or can you optimize the process to yield one more than the other?

The reason I ask is gasoline is only slightly expensive, relatively speaking, while diesel is crazy expensive. I'm wondering if more gas is bring produced to the detriment of diesel supplies.

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It's not fixed. Not every barrel of oil is equal. Oil produced in West Texas is very different from oil produced in Saudi Arabia.

GeorgiAg said:

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MemphisAg1 said:

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I'm not advocating for or against it, just trying to understand the mechanics of how banning diesel exports results in domestic gas prices spiking?

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I heard someone explain that sending diesel prices through the roof would hurt the Eastern and Western coasts. We have complex diesel distribution and those places would be affected by the international prices.

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Banning diesel exports would increase supply here and reduce price pressure on diesel. It would causes shortages and higher prices overseas, but that would be their problem.

I still don't understand the statement that banning diesel exports here would cause domestic gas prices to spike.

Refineries here aren't going to keep producing diesel when there is a huge excess. When they stop they will also make less gas.

Also, although we do export a lot of diesel, the market is global and we actually aren't set up to efficiently distribute American diesel to all of America

MemphisAg1 said:

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GeorgiAg said:

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MemphisAg1 said:

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I'm not advocating for or against it, just trying to understand the mechanics of how banning diesel exports results in domestic gas prices spiking?

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I heard someone explain that sending diesel prices through the roof would hurt the Eastern and Western coasts. We have complex diesel distribution and those places would be affected by the international prices.

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Banning diesel exports would increase supply here and reduce price pressure on diesel. It would causes shortages and higher prices overseas, but that would be their problem.

I still don't understand the statement that banning diesel exports here would cause domestic gas prices to spike.

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I didn't listen that closely, but I think some on the east and west may get imports cheaper than domestic. don't quote me on that. US banning exports will send those through the roof. But that make sense. A huge ship is way larger than a tanker truck. And we don't have pipelines running everywhere.

amercer said:

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Refineries here aren't going to keep producing diesel when there is a huge excess. When they stop they will also make less gas.

Also, although we do export a lot of diesel, the market is global and we actually aren't set up to efficiently distribute American diesel to all of America

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ok, so gas is produced along with diesel, and if they dial back the diesel it dials back the gas?

That is my understanding. If the refineries pull back, we get less of everything

MemphisAg1 said:

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amercer said:

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Refineries here aren't going to keep producing diesel when there is a huge excess. When they stop they will also make less gas.

Also, although we do export a lot of diesel, the market is global and we actually aren't set up to efficiently distribute American diesel to all of America

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ok, so gas is produced along with diesel, and if they dial back the diesel it dials back the gas?

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Yes. We export way more than we consume. Put in an export ban, and all that diesel has to go somewhere, so the price falls. But since you can't export any surplus, Refineries cut back production. When diesel production is cut, it also cuts gasoline production, because it's not like you can just readily switch and produce more gasoline.
The US is viewed as the diesel backstop because we can refine and produce so much of it. Put in an export ban, and it shocks world markets, and you may end up losing buyers in the long run because they don't think they can depend on you. It's basically dumb all around. Hopefully someone with some sense gets hold of Trump and tells him how weapons-grade stupid this would be.

Refiners optimize their crude slate and operating configuration based on the margins available across the entire product barrel. Every refinery has an optimizer trying to determine the best recipe. Complex refineries have more flexibility to shift yields, but no crude type or refinery can produce only gasoline or only diesel. There are byproducts even if you don't want them that you refine further or sell. A refinery tries to make most possible out of that barrel of oil.

A diesel export ban would depress the value of an unavoidable refinery product. So the refiner could shift their crude slate towards crude better for more gasoline or other higher-value products. That could increase the relative cost of gasoline oriented feedstocks. And if all refiners make the same shift, gasoline becomes oversupplied and its margin also falls. So if oil is still around $90, refinery then is paying global crude prices but can't sell their product to global market. They lose money.

The refineries are also at 98% right now. They've deferred their maintenance to keep the money printer going. Take away that incentive to run, they'll just go offline for that maintenance.

Got it, makes sense. Thanks.

There's some AI confusion here imho. When diesel is generated in excess of requirements/market, it's just fed into an FCC (fluid catalytic cracker or hydrocracker) and converted/processed into gasoline.

Diesel is neither the feedstock nor the goal of the classic "crack heavy oil to make gasoline" step; it's the boiling-range product that sits between them.

Diesel demand is not going to drop any time soon in the US (nor elsewhere) and refineries aren't going to wind down production of it based on any kind of export ban of the product.

nortex97 said:

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There's some AI confusion here imho. When diesel is generated in excess of requirements/market, it's just fed into an FCC (fluid catalytic cracker or hydrocracker) and converted/processed into gasoline.

Diesel is neither the feedstock nor the goal of the classic "crack heavy oil to make gasoline" step; it's the boiling-range product that sits between them.

Diesel demand is not going to drop any time soon in the US (nor elsewhere) and refineries aren't going to wind down production of it based on any kind of export ban of the product.

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Also with the huge discrepancy of diesel vs gasoline prices wouldn't there have to be a pretty huge fall of diesel prices before refineries would willingly choose regular gas instead? It's not like they are neck and neck currently

nortex97 said:

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There's some AI confusion here imho. When diesel is generated in excess of requirements/market, it's just fed into an FCC (fluid catalytic cracker or hydrocracker) and converted/processed into gasoline.

Diesel is neither the feedstock nor the goal of the classic "crack heavy oil to make gasoline" step; it's the boiling-range product that sits between them.

Diesel demand is not going to drop any time soon in the US (nor elsewhere) and refineries aren't going to wind down production of it based on any kind of export ban of the product.

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An export ban would cut the demand for US produced diesel by 30% instantly. I think that would lead to a lot of extreme reactions from refiners. There would be an excess in the US for a short period of time, but no distribution system to get it to the whole country.

Diesel is arguably more important for the economy, but this would be an extreme move that would probably spike gas prices. Gas is more visible to voters.

nortex97 said:

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There's some AI confusion here imho. When diesel is generated in excess of requirements/market, it's just fed into an FCC (fluid catalytic cracker or hydrocracker) and converted/processed into gasoline.

Diesel is neither the feedstock nor the goal of the classic "crack heavy oil to make gasoline" step; it's the boiling-range product that sits between them.

Diesel demand is not going to drop any time soon in the US (nor elsewhere) and refineries aren't going to wind down production of it based on any kind of export ban of the product.

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can you explain why diesel demand is not going to drop in the US or elsewhere? It seems like the consumer is tapped out and there is not much positive economic activity outside of AI. As bad as things are here, there is zero growth in Europe and they seem on the verge on recession every year.

The more I think about it, it's dumb. To make it work, you'd have to do a limit where US is fully supplied and more but refinery can still profit on the export of the incremental barrel over the set limit. It's going to look like a windfall profits tax on the refinery as their upside is capped.

We produce way more than we export. There will be an instant storage and logistics challenge as we reach tank tops to store all this. Ships likely sitting offshore which would further increase shipping costs as tankers are idle as offsite storage.

And then you just start running less meaning we produce less of everything else. We screw the rest of the world by increasing their cost which they will just pass back to us. We'll pay for it either way.

Also have to know how long this will last. Kinda like how you can't take back tax cuts, if this does successfully lower prices, who is going to take it away. You further reduce refining capacity in the US because they aren't as profitable and the next time something happens, everybody is like WTF why don't we have more.

I agree this would screw our LATAM neighbors and lead to quite a bit of bad will.

New World Ag said:

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I agree this would screw our LATAM neighbors and lead to quite a bit of bad will.

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I don't know what the answer is or what to ask for but it seems like we hold a tremendous amount of power in this scenario. At the very least, we should be able to get something for not putting their economies in the toilet. Call it extortion or whatever, but we need to get PAID for this.

Export tax on any diesel that is shipped out of the US. Government then uses that tax income to buy down the price of local diesel. Boom. What could go wrong??