As long as the storm stays to the east of Houston, That's fine with me.Ag_07 said:
Scary thing is what actually happens is probably somewhere in the middle.
Tropical two-fer
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Last: 3 yr ago by V8Aggie
Until this thing clears Cuba, the models will have a rough go.
I doubt they'll have much confidence until this time tomorrow.
When the hell will it finally pass Cuba? It seems like it's been passing Cuba for the last 24 hours.
Tonight.
Anti-taxxer said:
When the hell will it finally pass Cuba? It seems like it's been passing Cuba for the last 24 hours.
Overnight. The question is whether it goes across it or skirts around the west side of it.
It was in Haiti yesterday throughout the day. Yesterday afternoon it was in open water between the two.
One end of Cuba to the other is further than Houston to Tallahasse, FL or Houston to El Paso.Anti-taxxer said:
When the hell will it finally pass Cuba? It seems like it's been passing Cuba for the last 24 hours.
Anti-taxxer said:
When the hell will it finally pass Cuba? It seems like it's been passing Cuba for the last 24 hours.
Communists.
^ This. It's not passing over Grand Cayman which would take about 55 minutes.JJxvi said:One end of Cuba to the other is further than Houston to Tallahasse, FL or Houston to El Paso.Anti-taxxer said:
When the hell will it finally pass Cuba? It seems like it's been passing Cuba for the last 24 hours.
I want to know what it's gonna do. I need it to hurry on up.
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AG
am I getting a week off or not????
/Debra in accounting
/Debra in accounting
Bro, just wait another 2 weeks
Anti-taxxer said:
I want to know what it's gonna do. I need it to hurry on up.
Careful what you ask for..
Here is a description of the relationship between the model runs and the NHC forecasts:
1AM - Intermediater NHC advisory that updates location but not projected path or strength
1AM - Results of 6z model runs (see tropical tidbits)
4AM - NHC advisory updates path and strength based on 6z model runs
7AM - See 1AM
7AM - Results of 12z model runs (see tropical tidbits)
10AM - NHC advisory updates path and strength based on 12z model runs
Remaining schedule based on above.
Summary: Model runs are made at 0z, 6z, 12z and 18z. (see tropical tidbits)
NHC forecasts, reflecting model results from 3 hours earlier, are made at 4AM, 10AM, 4PM and 10PM
1AM - Intermediater NHC advisory that updates location but not projected path or strength
1AM - Results of 6z model runs (see tropical tidbits)
4AM - NHC advisory updates path and strength based on 6z model runs
7AM - See 1AM
7AM - Results of 12z model runs (see tropical tidbits)
10AM - NHC advisory updates path and strength based on 12z model runs
Remaining schedule based on above.
Summary: Model runs are made at 0z, 6z, 12z and 18z. (see tropical tidbits)
NHC forecasts, reflecting model results from 3 hours earlier, are made at 4AM, 10AM, 4PM and 10PM
Anti-taxxer said:Jock 07 said:Nagler said:MAS444 said:
There is no "s" in Kroger.
and there's only one S in New Braunfels.
You'll find it right there at the end. There's also an X in Mexia
That's Mahair.
My grandad, from Lott, Tx, pronounced it "Muhair". Only way I've ever known to say it.
And now, back to the coronacanes...
I'd hang out in Cuba a little longer too.Anti-taxxer said:
When the hell will it finally pass Cuba? It seems like it's been passing Cuba for the last 24 hours.
makes sense... I'd noticed yesterday there were no guidance changes, only position and intensity, updates at 0200, 0800, 1400, & 2000Agasaurus Tex said:
Here is a description of the relationship between the model runs and the NHC forecasts:
1AM - Intermediater NHC advisory that updates location but not projected path or strength
1AM - Results of 6z model runs (see tropical tidbits)
4AM - NHC advisory updates path and strength based on 6z model runs
7AM - See 1AM
7AM - Results of 12z model runs (see tropical tidbits)
10AM - NHC advisory updates path and strength based on 12z model runs
Remaining schedule based on above.
Summary: Model runs are made at 0z, 6z, 12z and 18z. (see tropical tidbits)
NHC forecasts, reflecting model results from 3 hours earlier, are made at 4AM, 10AM, 4PM and 10PM
Space City Weather Update (1:40pm - 8/24)
To update the percentages I've been using for various scenarios, this is what I would now go with:
Scenario One: Near or direct impact on Houston by a powerful hurricane. (30 percent)
Scenario Two: Powerful hurricane near or east of Texas-Louisiana border (70 percent)
Scenario Three: Weaker storm, central or southeastern Louisiana (~0 percent)
Link to rest of update: HERE
To update the percentages I've been using for various scenarios, this is what I would now go with:
Scenario One: Near or direct impact on Houston by a powerful hurricane. (30 percent)
Scenario Two: Powerful hurricane near or east of Texas-Louisiana border (70 percent)
Scenario Three: Weaker storm, central or southeastern Louisiana (~0 percent)
Link to rest of update: HERE
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Good to seeCFTXAG10 said:
Space City Weather Update (1:40pm - 8/24)
To update the percentages I've been using for various scenarios, this is what I would now go with:
Scenario One: Near or direct impact on Houston by a powerful hurricane. (30 percent)
Scenario Two: Powerful hurricane near or east of Texas-Louisiana border (70 percent)
Scenario Three: Weaker storm, central or southeastern Louisiana (~0 percent)
Link to rest of update: HERE
Also relevant.
Quote:
I am reasonably confident that the track will be dialed in by this time tomorrow, after Laura has come across the western edge of Cuba and emerged into the Gulf of Mexico. By this time it should be forming a more well defined center of circulation, and the models will have ingested better initial conditions. So our long, uncertain wait for some answers should finally come to an end within 12 to 24 hours.
latest update is optimistic
Just released global 18z runs vs the 12z earlier. Models slowly starting to zero in as the link above referenced.
Unless you live in SW Louisiana.
His intro is important to because there was a ton of talk about the met pros really questioning what the NHC was doing.
Quote:
I will not lie. (We never do, and that's a promise you can bank on). When the National Hurricane Center issued its updated track forecast at 10 am CT this morning I had my doubts. Forecasters there seemed too conservative in not moving the track of Laura closer to Houston, as that is where a lot of the model data indicated it would go. However, in going over all of the just released data from 12z models, their track forecast (shown below) now looks pretty good. So, kudos to the pros in Miami.
Don't you mean the amateurs questioning the met pros?AgLiving06 said:
His intro is important to because there was a ton of talk about the met pros really questioning what the NHC was doing.Quote:
I will not lie. (We never do, and that's a promise you can bank on). When the National Hurricane Center issued its updated track forecast at 10 am CT this morning I had my doubts. Forecasters there seemed too conservative in not moving the track of Laura closer to Houston, as that is where a lot of the model data indicated it would go. However, in going over all of the just released data from 12z models, their track forecast (shown below) now looks pretty good. So, kudos to the pros in Miami.
prayers for hackberry rod & gun
Cameron Parish and the City of Port Arthur issue mandatory evacuation orders
Cuba is about 750 miles long....storm is moving 20 miles an hour.Anti-taxxer said:
When the hell will it finally pass Cuba? It seems like it's been passing Cuba for the last 24 hours.
Wow. That's quite the change.
And prayers for my family in SW Louisiana. I need the surge to stay far away from New Iberia.
And prayers for my family in SW Louisiana. I need the surge to stay far away from New Iberia.
Galveston also issued a voluntary evacuation of low areas and west of the seawall.
Give it another 4 hours...Big Cat `93 said:
Wow. That's quite the change.
I took the deposition of a treasure of a girl whose residential history had the court reporter throwing up her hands.gooberhead said:Anti-taxxer said:Jock 07 said:Nagler said:MAS444 said:
There is no "s" in Kroger.
and there's only one S in New Braunfels.
You'll find it right there at the end. There's also an X in Mexia
That's Mahair.
My grandad, from Lott, Tx, pronounced it "Muhair". Only way I've ever known to say it.
And now, back to the coronacanes...
Mu-hair was one, but also:
Doo (Dew)
Tigg (Teague)
Mar-kay (Marquez)
Dunny (Donie)
Back to Cane talk:
Is anyone else having trouble getting motivated about this thing? I was stranded during Allison, had a rent house nearly crumble on top of me during Ike, lost everything that wasn't 6 feet high during Harvey and got to enjoy a boat rescue, and now have been through a 6 month malaise of rona and riots. My GAF meter should be spiking but I'm still in the "whatever" mood.
Covid scientists tried to set the standard for changing guidance and forecasts.
Meteorologists saw Laura and said not so fast my friends.
Meteorologists saw Laura and said not so fast my friends.
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