Sazerac said:
Transtar isn't showing unusual traffic....yet
Surprised. Been checking the cams and they look fine.
Tropical two-fer
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Last: 3 yr ago by V8Aggie
Surprised. Been checking the cams and they look fine.
It was that way with Ike. I went to New Braunfels the day before landfall. Just had a little slowdown near Brookshire where I-10 narrows.
Wonder if we'll start to see more further west movement/predictions as the storm keeps traveling west with no real turn north like expected. Could see another matagorda or corpus landfall...
In Clear Lake... about three miles down Space Center Blvd from Nassau Bay, right at Bay Area Blvd.
I'm on the fence as to go or not.
I'm on the fence as to go or not.
IIRC for Ike a lot of people stayed because everyone got caught in the CF that was the Rita evacuation.
ajolly said:
Part of me thinks NHS are delaying the further west trajectory just so that Houston doesnt go full panic mode and keep the galveston folks from getting out.
I think they are immensely concerned about another Rita and do not want the roads clogged with a hurricane bearing down on the city. It sucks that they have to do this but they will induce mass panic if they don't and they need to get everyone out of Galveston and low lying areas on mostly clear roads.
Evacuating the Houston/Galveston area is a ****show because the population is too large and spread out to do it effectively. Thus the NHC has to basically manipulate the whole situation to prevent what happened during Rita.
He's late, but here's what his post will say:Anti-taxxer said:
Gah. Eric Berger is going to wait until right at 10:30 to post.
"Here's the NHC track, but this is what other models say. The Houston area must remain prepared."
Probably. I only left because I checked the traffic cameras beforehand and saw that it was clear.
Ag_07 said:
IIRC for Ike a lot of people stayed because everyone got caught in the CF that was the Rita evacuation.
Yup exactly. I was at A&M for Rita and College Station wound up being a refuge for a lot of folks who broke down on 290 getting out of town. Lots of folks cited that ****show as to why they stayed for Ike
Everyone saying NHC is being conservative...
LOOK AT THE CONE, NOT THE BLACK LINE. NHC probably doesn't care where the storm goes as long as the eye tracks within the cone.
LOOK AT THE CONE, NOT THE BLACK LINE. NHC probably doesn't care where the storm goes as long as the eye tracks within the cone.
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I wonder how they'll feel if it turns out to be a cone of shame.Kenneth_2003 said:
LOOK AT THE CONE
Kenneth_2003 said:
Everyone saying NHC is being conservative...
LOOK AT THE CONE, NOT THE BLACK LINE. NHC probably doesn't care where the storm goes as long as the eye tracks within the cone.
Exactly. This also allows them to prevent another Rita while saying it was within the cone. It's not a bad move on their part.
Coog97 said:
In Clear Lake... about three miles down Space Center Blvd from Nassau Bay, right at Bay Area Blvd.
I'm on the fence as to go or not.
I'm 2 miles from you. Wife and kid heading out. I'll weather with hound. We lose power I'll leave afterward.
Certainly wouldn't be a conspiracy theory. The evacuation from Rita informed a lot of decisions since then, particularly the no-evac during Harvey.ajolly said:
Part of me thinks NHS are delaying the further west trajectory just so that Houston doesnt go full panic mode and keep the galveston folks from getting out.
Yep. Hackberry is fooked.
Living in the Heights should I be worried much? Keeps saying a Texas border landing
I am no scientist, but I've pretty much been staring at models, reading forums, etc since Sunday and if I had to bet I think it makes landfall just east of Galveston.I agree with the posters above who mention being conservative as to not induce mass choas for Houston, when honestly the majority of people do not need to evacuate.
I also think Laura will borderline be a cat 4 storm.
I also think Laura will borderline be a cat 4 storm.
Yep..Totally agree with this statement. I doubt the NHC shifts the track further west at all. Maybe a few miles or so. Could shift back East. Will be up to local gov to direct people what they should do. We're NE Houston out by Liberty county. Staying put for now.Kenneth_2003 said:
Everyone saying NHC is being conservative...
LOOK AT THE CONE, NOT THE BLACK LINE. NHC probably doesn't care where the storm goes as long as the eye tracks within the cone.
AustinCountyAg said:
I am no scientist, but I've pretty much been staring at models, reading forums, etc since Sunday and if I had to bet I think it makes landfall just east of Galveston.I agree with the posters above who mention being conservative as to not induce mass choas for Houston, when honestly the majority of people do not need to evacuate.
I also think Laura will borderline be a cat 4 storm.
This is me.
Tyrone_The_Tuna said:
Living in the Heights should I be worried much? Keeps saying a Texas border landing
Make sure you have plenty of ice and booze and you'll be fine
ThunderCougarFalconBird
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AG
We are in Montrose and staying in place. We did the same during Harvey and had no issues (or even power loss). We're prepared for whatever but will only leave post storm in the event of a prolonged power outage.Tyrone_The_Tuna said:
Living in the Heights should I be worried much? Keeps saying a Texas border landing
May throw some gaffer tape on a couple of larger windows if the storm looks like it will exceed Cat3 and is headed directly into Houston.
Oh, and like others said, stock the hell up on booze.
Premium said:AustinCountyAg said:
I am no scientist, but I've pretty much been staring at models, reading forums, etc since Sunday and if I had to bet I think it makes landfall just east of Galveston.I agree with the posters above who mention being conservative as to not induce mass choas for Houston, when honestly the majority of people do not need to evacuate.
I also think Laura will borderline be a cat 4 storm.
This is me.
((Raises hand))
Ugh. I remember this with Ike. Lost power almost 3 weeks and had no trash service, running water, or septic. (everyone on well and OSSF). Everything stunk. Bathed in Off mosquito spray every morning.Bregxit said:The TC Jester said:
It was pretty crazy how cool it was in the days immediately following Ike, I forgot about that. Made things much easier at the time.
For the first two days it was great. We sat out in the cul-de-sac with the neighbors and had the firepit going to stay warm at night. Day three it got hot and the mosquitoes came out in force.
We had no power in Spring for 10 days. That sucked but what was worse was we had no trash service for three weeks. Everyone's spoiled food sat on the curbs and rotted in the heat. It smelled like a death camp.
What i'll remember the most is pulling out my dads old Oklahoma Joe smoker and we smoked Grands biscuits and a Red Baron pizza on it. I still get a whiff of pecan and wet oak when eating biscuits.
I think the NHC cares more about being right than they do people evacuating Galveston. I just can't get behind the idea they'd sandbag their prediction because of that.
Any new Euro models out?
Here is a great post I am stealing off a storm forum. I think it sums it up pretty well...........
The NHC likes continuity and keeping changes small. They moved the track far enough to put most of the heavily populated coastal areas near Houston under hurricane watch, to get residents to evacuate or at least take proper precautions for a major hurricane hit. They're also blending the current model runs with the *past* model runs, which does make Bayesian sense with repeated uncertain projections. They can keep bumping the cone left every 3 hours, if appropriate. Keeping the changes small makes them seem more authoritative and makes people more likely to listen to them, which is essential to their core mission of reducing deaths from tropical systems.
The NHC likes continuity and keeping changes small. They moved the track far enough to put most of the heavily populated coastal areas near Houston under hurricane watch, to get residents to evacuate or at least take proper precautions for a major hurricane hit. They're also blending the current model runs with the *past* model runs, which does make Bayesian sense with repeated uncertain projections. They can keep bumping the cone left every 3 hours, if appropriate. Keeping the changes small makes them seem more authoritative and makes people more likely to listen to them, which is essential to their core mission of reducing deaths from tropical systems.
Yeah, this idea that they are intentionally being wrong with their prediction to allow for evacuation is dumb. They're going to present their best guess at the most likely scenario so people can be informed.Ducks4brkfast said:
I think the NHC cares more about being right than they do people evacuating Galveston. I just can't get behind the idea they'd sandbag their prediction because of that.
Mass hysteria in Houston would be a cluster if it was announced right now it was going to be a high CAT 3 and hit Houston, or even hit the east side of Houston.Ducks4brkfast said:
I think the NHC cares more about being right than they do people evacuating Galveston. I just can't get behind the idea they'd sandbag their prediction because of that.
In light of COVID logic, do you think people can handle the logic that staying home is safer?
Live update -- very slight uptick in cars on 45 moving N through downtown. No slowdown at all yet. I'm looking out over city hall, over the go-to date spot in H-Tine (the Aquarium) to where 10 and 45 meet.Charlie Murphy said:Sazerac said:
Transtar isn't showing unusual traffic....yet
Surprised. Been checking the cams and they look fine.
This. When peoples lives are at stake they aren't going to play evac mind games.Ducks4brkfast said:
I think the NHC cares more about being right than they do people evacuating Galveston. I just can't get behind the idea they'd sandbag their prediction because of that.
AustinCountyAg said:
Here is a great post I am stealing off a storm forum. I think it sums it up pretty well...........
The NHC likes continuity and keeping changes small. They moved the track far enough to put most of the heavily populated coastal areas near Houston under hurricane watch, to get residents to evacuate or at least take proper precautions for a major hurricane hit. They're also blending the current model runs with the *past* model runs, which does make Bayesian sense with repeated uncertain projections. They can keep bumping the cone left every 3 hours, if appropriate. Keeping the changes small makes them seem more authoritative and makes people more likely to listen to them, which is essential to their core mission of reducing deaths from tropical systems.
Agreed. This keeps the cone covering appropriate regions.
Wouldn't NHC need to tell people in Galveston to start getting out now if there is a true risk? Seems like waiting and going full freak out 12 hours before landfall is more dangerous.
I thought I read something where Galveston is evacuating at noon today?
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