Sazerac said:
Transtar isn't showing unusual traffic....yet
Surprised. Been checking the cams and they look fine.
Sazerac said:
Transtar isn't showing unusual traffic....yet
ajolly said:
Part of me thinks NHS are delaying the further west trajectory just so that Houston doesnt go full panic mode and keep the galveston folks from getting out.
He's late, but here's what his post will say:Anti-taxxer said:
Gah. Eric Berger is going to wait until right at 10:30 to post.
Ag_07 said:
IIRC for Ike a lot of people stayed because everyone got caught in the CF that was the Rita evacuation.
I wonder how they'll feel if it turns out to be a cone of shame.Kenneth_2003 said:
LOOK AT THE CONE
Kenneth_2003 said:
Everyone saying NHC is being conservative...
LOOK AT THE CONE, NOT THE BLACK LINE. NHC probably doesn't care where the storm goes as long as the eye tracks within the cone.
Coog97 said:
In Clear Lake... about three miles down Space Center Blvd from Nassau Bay, right at Bay Area Blvd.
I'm on the fence as to go or not.
Certainly wouldn't be a conspiracy theory. The evacuation from Rita informed a lot of decisions since then, particularly the no-evac during Harvey.ajolly said:
Part of me thinks NHS are delaying the further west trajectory just so that Houston doesnt go full panic mode and keep the galveston folks from getting out.
Yep..Totally agree with this statement. I doubt the NHC shifts the track further west at all. Maybe a few miles or so. Could shift back East. Will be up to local gov to direct people what they should do. We're NE Houston out by Liberty county. Staying put for now.Kenneth_2003 said:
Everyone saying NHC is being conservative...
LOOK AT THE CONE, NOT THE BLACK LINE. NHC probably doesn't care where the storm goes as long as the eye tracks within the cone.
AustinCountyAg said:
I am no scientist, but I've pretty much been staring at models, reading forums, etc since Sunday and if I had to bet I think it makes landfall just east of Galveston.I agree with the posters above who mention being conservative as to not induce mass choas for Houston, when honestly the majority of people do not need to evacuate.
I also think Laura will borderline be a cat 4 storm.
Tyrone_The_Tuna said:
Living in the Heights should I be worried much? Keeps saying a Texas border landing
We are in Montrose and staying in place. We did the same during Harvey and had no issues (or even power loss). We're prepared for whatever but will only leave post storm in the event of a prolonged power outage.Tyrone_The_Tuna said:
Living in the Heights should I be worried much? Keeps saying a Texas border landing
Premium said:AustinCountyAg said:
I am no scientist, but I've pretty much been staring at models, reading forums, etc since Sunday and if I had to bet I think it makes landfall just east of Galveston.I agree with the posters above who mention being conservative as to not induce mass choas for Houston, when honestly the majority of people do not need to evacuate.
I also think Laura will borderline be a cat 4 storm.
This is me.
Ugh. I remember this with Ike. Lost power almost 3 weeks and had no trash service, running water, or septic. (everyone on well and OSSF). Everything stunk. Bathed in Off mosquito spray every morning.Bregxit said:The TC Jester said:
It was pretty crazy how cool it was in the days immediately following Ike, I forgot about that. Made things much easier at the time.
For the first two days it was great. We sat out in the cul-de-sac with the neighbors and had the firepit going to stay warm at night. Day three it got hot and the mosquitoes came out in force.
We had no power in Spring for 10 days. That sucked but what was worse was we had no trash service for three weeks. Everyone's spoiled food sat on the curbs and rotted in the heat. It smelled like a death camp.
Yeah, this idea that they are intentionally being wrong with their prediction to allow for evacuation is dumb. They're going to present their best guess at the most likely scenario so people can be informed.Ducks4brkfast said:
I think the NHC cares more about being right than they do people evacuating Galveston. I just can't get behind the idea they'd sandbag their prediction because of that.
Mass hysteria in Houston would be a cluster if it was announced right now it was going to be a high CAT 3 and hit Houston, or even hit the east side of Houston.Ducks4brkfast said:
I think the NHC cares more about being right than they do people evacuating Galveston. I just can't get behind the idea they'd sandbag their prediction because of that.
Live update -- very slight uptick in cars on 45 moving N through downtown. No slowdown at all yet. I'm looking out over city hall, over the go-to date spot in H-Tine (the Aquarium) to where 10 and 45 meet.Charlie Murphy said:Sazerac said:
Transtar isn't showing unusual traffic....yet
Surprised. Been checking the cams and they look fine.
This. When peoples lives are at stake they aren't going to play evac mind games.Ducks4brkfast said:
I think the NHC cares more about being right than they do people evacuating Galveston. I just can't get behind the idea they'd sandbag their prediction because of that.
AustinCountyAg said:
Here is a great post I am stealing off a storm forum. I think it sums it up pretty well...........
The NHC likes continuity and keeping changes small. They moved the track far enough to put most of the heavily populated coastal areas near Houston under hurricane watch, to get residents to evacuate or at least take proper precautions for a major hurricane hit. They're also blending the current model runs with the *past* model runs, which does make Bayesian sense with repeated uncertain projections. They can keep bumping the cone left every 3 hours, if appropriate. Keeping the changes small makes them seem more authoritative and makes people more likely to listen to them, which is essential to their core mission of reducing deaths from tropical systems.