Damn that escalated quickly
Tropical two-fer
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Last: 3 yr ago by V8Aggie
I'm about to be out of all my good stuff... this work from home has really taken its toll on my cabinet.third coast.. said:
I've got the good **** if you've got money
Think I'll go grab a handle of WT101 and maybe rye for some old fashioneds! Though this could be rum weather... hmmm.
V8Aggie said:I'm about to be out of all my good stuff... this work from home has really taken its toll on mythird coast.. said:
I've got the good **** if you've got moneycabinetliver.
Think I'll go grab a handle of WT101 and maybe rye for some old fashioneds! Though this could be rum weather... hmmm.
Houston meteorologists seeing the fear porn this morning with the new models.
reading a lot of the forums this morning many models are predicating landfall anywhere between POC and Galveston. This storm is crazy.
Reading the latest from Space City makes me think Laura is still mind-f****** the forecasters. No telling where this ends up, thus the "hope for the best, prepare for the worst" from Berger this morning
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Frank ain't no two stroke chump. He isn't even close to blowing his fearmongering load yet. He is still surfing the net to find the right thing to watch to get him there.TXAG14 said:
Houston meteorologists seeing the fear porn this morning with the new models.
Looks like Turner and Dora are having a presser at 1.
City under further lockdown...no one to go outside for the next week.Cromagnum said:
Looks like Turner and Dora are having a presser at 1.
Make sure to keep all cars 6 ft apart and wear your mask while evacuating.
If you evacuate you'll catch the Corona.BohunkAg said:City under further lockdown...no one to go outside for the next week.Cromagnum said:
Looks like Turner and Dora are having a presser at 1.
Seems like we are going to get a ton of rain from Marco. A TD scraping the coast flinging water inland. Shouldn't this been getting some attention too?
Berger not very concerned about rain from Marco. Nearly all of the rain will be north and east of the center of the storm.
We won't get rain because wind sheer is pushing the convection north and east with the mid level center. The convection will continue in that direction and the low level center will move toward Houston. This might bring some wind but nothing else.
surprising that wasnt more westward. Every weather person I follow predicted it would be. including Berger
12z Global runs with intensity
Guess we had only been seeing the models towards Houston...above chart still shows lots of models in LAgigemJTH12 said:
surprising that wasnt more westward. Every weather person I follow predicted it would be. including Berger
Learned something new this morning. The cone is dimensionally locked given the time to landfall, regardless of the spaghetti model dispersion.
I guess the models won't really start to converge until the center is past Cuba. That doesn't leave a lot of time. People have to plan and act with imperfect information. Particularly difficult if acting means evacuating.
Fitch said:
Learned something new this morning. The cone is dimensionally locked given the time to landfall, regardless of the spaghetti model dispersion.
Restate that in the simplest form possible, please.
Fitch said:
Learned something new this morning. The cone is dimensionally locked given the time to landfall, regardless of the spaghetti model dispersion.
Whatever that means, it's pretty cool.
Right this makes it sound like the cone will not be changing from now forward?
me every time I'm on a weather threadAnti-taxxer said:Fitch said:
Learned something new this morning. The cone is dimensionally locked given the time to landfall, regardless of the spaghetti model dispersion.
Restate that in the simplest form possible, please.
They don't change the size of the cone depending on the spread of the spaghetti models for the particular storm underway, it is based on a fixed width from historical averages.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml
so some people I trust thing this thing still shifts west and the 4pm update will show it. agree?
Fitch said:
They don't change the size of the cone depending on the spread of the spaghetti models for the particular storm underway, it is based on a fixed width from historical averages.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml
But the cone can still move, right?
gigemJTH12 said:
so some people I trust thing this thing still shifts west and the 4pm update will show it. agree?
Same here. Travis Herzog and the Space City guys all seem pretty sure this heads out way.
Yes, the cone can move. But the don't make it wider when the models are spread out more. The radius of the cone at the 12 hour mark is always 26 nautical miles. And it's always 41 nautical miles at the 24 hour mark.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/241440.shtml
The NHC basically said the westward models are bullsh-t lol
The NHC basically said the westward models are bullsh-t lol
Quote:
Although the track guidance is in somewhat better agreement today,
there remains some cross-track spread by day 3, with the UKMET
showing landfall well southwest of the official forecast. The NHC
track is close to the various consensus aids and leans toward the
typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models.
gigemJTH12 said:
so some people I trust thing this thing still shifts west and the 4pm update will show it. agree?
Yes. Also the NHC appears to put a lot more effort towards it's 4pm update. The signs are all there for a shift west.
I think the discrepancy is that the NHC path is based on models that are running on current conditions.
The mets are predicting that future conditions will dictate a move westward.
The mets are predicting that future conditions will dictate a move westward.
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