We'll get wind, depending on how big the spread of the storm is and how strong it gets. I would expect 20-30 mph sustained at least on the east side of houston.SJEAg said:Ag_07 said:
So if it goes to TX/LA border what are we looking at effects felt here?
Guessing not much being on the west side of it. Maybe some wind and a few showers?
Maybe not even that...unless it's a monster size-wise like Ike was (think it's TS diameter was over 400 miles). When Rita, which wasn't tiny, smacked Beaumont I didn't even get drizzle in west Houston.
Tropical two-fer
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Last: 3 yr ago by V8Aggie
Ensembles = probabilistic.
Operational = deterministic.
Hth.
So far, operational have been flipping east and west between runs. Ensembles has been drilling us for days.
Operational = deterministic.
Hth.
So far, operational have been flipping east and west between runs. Ensembles has been drilling us for days.
do yall trust Berger or Fauci more when it comes to their projections?
That's a strange question.
Berger doesn't make projections. His favorite words are uncertain, unknown, maybe we'll know something better tomorrow.camelclub said:
do yall trust Berger or Fauci more when it comes to their projections?
I can't argue with that reasoning.
RangerRick9211 said:
Ensembles = probabilistic.
Operational = deterministic.
Hth.
So far, operational have been flipping east and west between runs. Ensembles has been drilling us for days.
This right here... the models showing a direct Houston hit are ensemble runs. Whereas most met reliance is on operational runs. Won't see congruence until this thing gets past Cuba.
I was about a week out from starting my junior year of high school, mom was setting up a garage sale when someone came by and said, 'eh, there's a hurricane coming ..." We hadn't turned on the TV apparently. It came in later that night. This was in Lake Jackson. Eye went right over my house, and I did the same thing you did, went into the middle of the street in the middle of the suddenly quiet night to see a starlit sky. Very eerie, but cool nonetheless.Seabreeze said:
Right now its pretty low. At least we know about this one. Alicia is the one I'll always remember. Went to bed one night to wake up to a Cat 3 beating on the door the following morning. Think we had less than 24 hours to prepare. Of course it hit at night, going outside about 1 in the morning to look at the stars with my Dad durring the eye comming over was cool.
Hoping Laura does an about-face and dissipates into the middle of the Atlantic (not gonna happen, I know ...)
Are we neighbors? I had my roof replaced less than 2 weeks ago.Ranger #007 said:
If we get hit with this thing I blame the people down the street who had their roof replaced without a hurricane in the middle of hurricane season.
My thought this morning: Is having a roof replaced during hurricane season like washing your car when you don't think it's going to rain?
Always replace your roof in the winter MAN!!
yep. There is literally nothing out there close to what them guys are calling
I had damage. It needed to be done. It wasn't cosmetic surgery.Seabreeze said:
Always replace your roof in the winter MAN!!
Ronnie said:We'll get wind, depending on how big the spread of the storm is and how strong it gets. I would expect 20-30 mph sustained at least on the east side of houston.SJEAg said:Ag_07 said:
So if it goes to TX/LA border what are we looking at effects felt here?
Guessing not much being on the west side of it. Maybe some wind and a few showers?
Maybe not even that...unless it's a monster size-wise like Ike was (think it's TS diameter was over 400 miles). When Rita, which wasn't tiny, smacked Beaumont I didn't even get drizzle in west Houston.
When Rita hit east of us, we didn't get a lot of rain, but we definitely got significant wind in the Heights/downtown area that night. My buddy and I were driving around like we we owned the Tine as there were virtually no cars on the roads aside from the rare HPD squad car...did F150 donuts at several intersections like dumbasses. Drove by Christians Tailgate in downtown and saw that it looked "possibly open". With the wind it was tough to pry the door open but when we finally did, we see a private gathering of people and two M*LFY ladies were dancing topless on the bar and showing their g strings. One of their husbands told my buddy to spank his wife's ass. The dudes, who i am guessing we're ownership/mgmt or close friends, were cool and let us hang out and observe for a beer or two before politely asking us to leave.
Then driving down white oak on way back home, saw a stop sign blow over and street signs flew off. It was definitely more sporadic wind gusts than prolonged severe winds though. And the storm was short lived...many were prob sleeping during the worst of it.
i meant who do you trust more as an authority
ETA- watch issued
Ever-so-slight shift to the east... But I know a lot of folks are still saying wait and see until it emerges into the open gulf.
Slight shift east is better than nothing!
Slight shift east is better than nothing!
Bad news and good news. State Farm replaced my roof after Alicia and Ike. I had been getting estimates for replacing the roof before each storm hit. Good news: Little damage from Ike. Insurance replaced the missing shingles and replaced the back fence. Bad news: Alicia tore off the roof and had to replace 80% of the sheetrock and live in a hotel for 6 weeks. I ****ing hate hurricanes.
We had fish in the street after Alica, barley a roof. No power for 3 weeks, cold showers by candle lite and hot humid nights with the windows open. My dad the week before had installed a inground gas grill in the back yard. Some neighbors brought over all there picnick tables and our back yard kinda turned into a cook it yourself restaurant with everyone using the grill to cook because most had electric stoves. No one evacuated, everyone helped clean up, we all watched over each other at night. That was 1983, crazy how the world has changed.
This storm has gone west of the track for the last two days. They also haven't flown recon on this storm since this morning. Their models are only as good as their data. Until this thing is on the other side of Cuba, and we've flown a plane into it, I'm not buying their track.
On my street in Lake Jackson, there were no back yard fences (still aren't). Our inground gas grill was taken away, leaving only the pipe that it was attached to. We turned it into a planter afterward. And this was in a time when cable TV was only beginning to show up, but the neighbor still had a 30+ ft TV antenna in his back yard. I saw that thing bent over to damn near a 90 deg angle that night. So much crap in our yard after that I had the privilege of clearing away. We didn't have power for at least the following week.Seabreeze said:
We had fish in the street after Alica, barley a roof. No power for 3 weeks, cold showers by candle lite and hot humid nights with the windows open. My dad the week before had installed a inground gas grill in the back yard. Some neighbors brought over all there picnick tables and our back yard kinda turned into a cook it yourself restaurant with everyone using the grill to cook because most had electric stoves. No one evacuated, everyone helped clean up, we all watched over each other at night. That was 1983, crazy how the world has changed.
I don't even think they flew into it this morning.
I saw somewhere they couldn't get air clearance from Cuba to fly it.
I saw somewhere they couldn't get air clearance from Cuba to fly it.
NHC with some major CYA language cooked in, just in case.
Quote:
"Hurricane conditions are possible by late Wednesday from Port Bolivar, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon, and a hurricane watch has been issued. Additional hurricane watches may be needed farther south along the Texas coast if the track forecast shifts toward the south and west tonight and Tuesday."
They flew in this morning but not this evening
If..... still throwing darts at this point
Seabreeze said:
They flew in this morning but not this evening
As if on que, a recon plane just took off to investigate Laura
Seabreeze
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ChemAg15 said:Seabreeze said:
They flew in this morning but not this evening
As if on que, a recon plane just took off to investigate Laura
Will be interested in learning what they find.
were u more worried leading up to Harvey or Laura?
When fauci said harvey would dump 50 inches of rain everyone said it was overhyped
When fauci said harvey would dump 50 inches of rain everyone said it was overhyped
camelclub said:
were u more worried leading up to Harvey or Laura?
When fauci said harvey would dump 50 inches of rain everyone said it was overhyped
Do you know what you're talking about?
Beat40 said:ChemAg15 said:Seabreeze said:
They flew in this morning but not this evening
As if on que, a recon plane just took off to investigate Laura
Will be interested in learning what they find.
Well they took off from South Carolina so its going to be a few hours before they get to the storm
such an odd flex
Intensity forecast creeping up now.
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