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Tropical two-fer

521,649 Views | 3418 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by V8Aggie
Seabreeze
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4:19p, 9/19/20
No longer forecast to reach Hurrican strength.
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AgLA06
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In reply to Seabreeze • 4:50p, 9/19/20
AG
Probably better for the houses on the coast, but worse from a flooding risk.
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flyingaggie12
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4:54p, 9/19/20
AG
So everything south of I-10 could see anywhere from 6-15"?
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Ag12thman
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In reply to Seabreeze • 5:24p, 9/19/20
AG
So, lots of rain, but not as much wind?
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AgLiving06
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In reply to flyingaggie12 • 6:05p, 9/19/20
flyingaggie12 said:
So everything south of I-10 could see anywhere from 6-15"?

I found this to be helpful.

15 inches is predicted more to be on the coast.

The farther away it's more like 10.

FWIW, my work's weather group is saying 10 inches near downtown.


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Seabreeze
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6:30p, 9/19/20
I didn't take water here in Seabrook with 48 inches in 48 hours durring Harvey. Never took water with a 22 ft storm surge durring Ike while Kemah next door took 10 ft of Gulf. Every storm is different, but my pucker factor is at about a 2 of 10 right now.
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Anti-taxxer
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In reply to AgLiving06 • 6:33p, 9/19/20
AG
AgLiving06 said:
flyingaggie12 said:
So everything south of I-10 could see anywhere from 6-15"?

I found this to be helpful.

15 inches is predicted more to be on the coast.

The farther away it's more like 10.

FWIW, my work's weather group is saying 10 inches near downtown.



10 inches over three days? Am I reading that correctly?
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Seabreeze
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In reply to Anti-taxxer • 6:35p, 9/19/20
Yes
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Fitch
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6:37p, 9/19/20
AG
Breaking out NWS Twitter graphic from above as of about two hours ago. Little higher resolution.


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Seabreeze
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In reply to Anti-taxxer • 6:37p, 9/19/20
This isn't shaping up to be an Allison or Harvey. Its going to be wet, but looking like something that shouldn't cause much problems.
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lunchbox
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7:45p, 9/19/20
Storm surge already hitting Galveston. How is the golf cart???

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Seabreeze
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7:48p, 9/19/20

Levi's latest
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In reply to lunchbox • 7:50p, 9/19/20
aggies12thman
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8:02p, 9/19/20
AG
I need more blue golf cart in my life right now
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mAgnoliAg
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8:26p, 9/19/20
AG
Our maroon golf cart is fine. My dad might pick it up tomorrow just in case
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AgLiving06
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8:55p, 9/19/20
Space City update: Saturday Evening Update

This is their response to the NHC showing 10-20 inches of rain.

Quote:
Yep, this shows a solid 15 to 20 inches along the coast, and a band of 10 to 15 inches across the Houston metro area. This is what you would expect from a typical tropical storm following Beta's track.

However, there are several ways in which this forecast could go bust. One is that Beta moves far enough inland into Texas early next week that it gets cut off from a moisture supply. Two, Beta is going to be fighting dry air to its west, and this may starve the convection near the storm's center, which would lessen rain totals along the Texas coast. Finally, we could see the heaviest remains far removed from the center. This is the scenario depicted in virtually all of the global model guidance, both their operational runs and ensemble outputs. Nearly all of this guidance suggests five-day rain totals of 2 to 8 inches across the greater Houston metro area, including Galveston. These models do not do a good job of picking up small-scale convective processes, but there is a strong signal here that is hard for us to ignore.
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jetch17
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9:43p, 9/19/20
AG
Was already up over dock on back bay Harborwalk today


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jetch17
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9:51p, 9/19/20
AG
Flagged? WTF?
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sburg2007
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In reply to jetch17 • 9:56p, 9/19/20
Did you post a pic of Uncle P after too many cold ones?
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In reply to jetch17 • 10:00p, 9/19/20
jetch17
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In reply to sburg2007 • 10:00p, 9/19/20
AG
sburg2007 said:
Did you post a pic of Uncle P after too many cold ones?
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P.H. Dexippus
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10:15p, 9/19/20
AG
Latest update has Beta moving NNE.
"[When I was a kid,] I wanted to be a pirate. Thank God no one took me seriously and scheduled me for eye removal and peg leg surgery."- Bill Maher
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Cromagnum
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10:21p, 9/19/20
AG
These fools don't know. KHOU had said areas could see 10-20 inches of rain or less than 3 inches, and that rainfall could be limited due to dry air.
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Seabreeze
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11:31p, 9/19/20
With this one no knows till it happens.
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Seabreeze
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11:40p, 9/19/20
Center sure seems North of all these models and tracks. Though it was supposed to start turning West not going North
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Seabreeze
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11:41p, 9/19/20

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nonameag99
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In reply to Seabreeze • 1:37a, 9/20/20
Seabreeze said:

Does that mean that we are all gojng to die?
The Aggie number specified has already been linked with another TexAgs account.
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Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno
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In reply to nonameag99 • 6:31a, 9/20/20
AG
Cataclysmicopalse murder hurricane beta
You will not survive
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AgLiving06
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7:18a, 9/20/20
NHC saying the storm is expected to speed up a bit faster than projected, while still facing heavy sheer and dry air.

All that has them reducing the rainfall levels for the area.

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ChipFTAC01
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7:42a, 9/20/20
AG
Last report I saw only like maybe 3 cumulative inches in the west side.
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htxag09
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7:43a, 9/20/20
AG
All I know is it feels ****ing amazing outside for the first time in months
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gougler08
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7:44a, 9/20/20
AG
Our weather guy (major oil co) is saying 5-7 inches for the energy corridor
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V8Aggie
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7:48a, 9/20/20
AG
Remain calm! Blue cart lives.

we're in a small cabin outside Cat Spring. Not heading home till tomorrow morning. Will keep the pics coming.
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V8Aggie
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7:52a, 9/20/20
AG

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AgLiving06
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In reply to gougler08 • 7:55a, 9/20/20
gougler08 said:
Our weather guy (major oil co) is saying 5-7 inches for the energy corridor

That's in alignment with the weather guy at company who went from 10" to 7" this morning.
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