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Tropical two-fer

536,191 Views | 3418 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by V8Aggie
Cromagnum
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Ag_07 said:

Cromagnum said:

That first rain band looks rough. This thing better do a 90 degree turn soon.

https://m.imgur.com/bF1bVa6

Looks like that's IR temp output not radar. That band is not near as bad as it looks




It is the IR, but they are saying those rains that went through Lake Charles over the 1-10 Bridge were blinding. We'll see as they get over here.
Fall92
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plain_o_llama said:

CoachRTM said:

It's times like these you realize that our way back ancestors didn't have access to technology and understand that a storm like this was coming. I mean, look at the video posted above - looks like a normal day and we're 12 hours from devastation.

Could you imagine a 12-foot storm surge and then this mammoth storm that seemingly came out of nowhere with no warning? It kills all of your cattle, drowns your crops, and half of your friends. You can kind of understand why they thought it was God punishing them, etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indianola,_Texas

Indianola is a ghost town located on Matagorda Bay in Calhoun County, Texas, United States. The community, once the county seat of Calhoun County, is a part of the Victoria, Texas, Metropolitan Statistical Area. In 1875, the city had a population of 5,000, but on September 15 of that year, a powerful hurricane struck, killing between 150 and 300 and almost entirely destroying the town. Indianola was rebuilt, only to be wiped out on August 19, 1886, by another intense hurricane, which was followed by a fire.

Louis L'amour's book Matagorda is set around the time of the 1875 storm.


Not to derail the thread again but if you are ever in the area check out the old cemetery in Indianola. A very unique piece of Texas history. I always stop at the Indianola Marina for a couple of beers on the way to POC and Seadrift. As another poster mentioned, several of the Indianola houses were moved. Most made their way to Victoria but I've read that a couple are also in Cuero. I've always wanted to see one.
"I did nothing. I did absolutely nothing, and it was everything that I thought it could be."
TexAgsSean
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Motis B Totis said:

so the plan is to just hope it turns?


I think it is more of a science that it turns.
gigemJTH12
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Aggie_3 said:

According to 3 different radars it hasn't started turning and is hugging the west side and outside the west side of the cone as far out as 7:30


A smart guy on another forum said if it doesn't turn north by 4pm it will shift west by the minute
KTAG05
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Cave Johnson, CEO said:

Stolen from the Storm2k forum. Appears to be hugging the west side of the cone.




What is the other cone?
TexAg2001
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Aggie_3 said:

According to 3 different radars it hasn't started turning and is hugging the west side and outside the west side of the cone as far out as 7:30
I have no clue if it's a possiblity, but I wonder if Laura's rapid intesification (faster than was predicted) is allowing it to overcome the pressure ridge in TX that was helping to steer it North?
Cave Johnson, CEO
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For anyone else that would like to follow, here's a link to the Laura "Models" thread on the Storm2K forum. They also post information from the NOAA Hurricane Planes as the data comes in.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=121182&start=3960
BrazosDog02
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TexAg2001 said:

Aggie_3 said:

According to 3 different radars it hasn't started turning and is hugging the west side and outside the west side of the cone as far out as 7:30
I have no clue if it's a possiblity, but I wonder if Laura's rapid intesification (faster than was predicted) is allowing it to overcome the pressure ridge in TX that was helping to steer it North?
Hope so. Even a slight nudge would be an improvement for rain chances.
FHKChE07
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That's essentially where my house is. Seeing how bad the flooding was from Harvey, I cant imagine matching it with a storm surge.
lawless89
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I sure hope the fact that the weather channel and all other news station are correct in not even mentioning Houston anymore...because it seems like a lot of us here think differently! Hope we are wrong! Would be absolutely catastrophic if it didn't turn.
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jetch17
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Cave Johnson, CEO
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I'm not sure, it may be an old cone from Marco? I'm not sure of the original source of the image.
Nagler
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lawless89 said:

I sure hope the fact that the weather channel and all other news station are correct in not even mentioning Houston anymore...because it seems like a lot of us here think differently! Hope we are wrong! Would be absolutely catastrophic if it didn't turn.


I'm choosing to believe the pros and not a bunch of fandoms on the internet that just started staring at spinning clouds.
schmendeler
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BCSGrubber said:

Cave Johnson, CEO said:

Stolen from the Storm2k forum. Appears to be hugging the west side of the cone.




What is the other cone?
catastrophic storm surge areas?
Al Bula
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Ag_07 said:

Cromagnum said:

That first rain band looks rough. This thing better do a 90 degree turn soon.

https://m.imgur.com/bF1bVa6

Looks like that's IR temp output not radar. That band is not near as bad as it looks


Thank you for posting that radar. I think people are truly enjoying the fear rush of this storm and are glomming onto literally anything they can after it has been apparent in the last 12 hours Laura was heading to LA side of the border. Of course fully recognizing things can still change.
LostInLA07
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The north turn promise reminds me of contractors assuring you they'll gain more progress next week and turn the s curve. Or the "exponential" covid growth curve inflection point that never seems to happen.
Fitch
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Neither here nor there, but my firm works with the Buffalo Bayou Park people a lot and they'll tell you water will swing up to 9-ft based on wind direction. Harvey was a rainy rainy SOB, but thankfully there really was not any storm surge to speak of for Houston.
Charpie
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Can you get over there and board them up?

Prayers for you and yours..and everyone else!
Premium
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Motis B Totis said:

so the plan is to just hope it turns?
Anti-taxxer
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gigemJTH12
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The wind at my house right now sure feels like that sucker is close
HossAg
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My current "office" is in Cameron right now. Rest in pieces. I got out of there last night.
Cromagnum
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BCSGrubber said:

Cave Johnson, CEO said:

Stolen from the Storm2k forum. Appears to be hugging the west side of the cone.




What is the other cone?


Marco?
plain_o_llama
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plain_o_llama said:

CoachRTM said:

It's times like these you realize that our way back ancestors didn't have access to technology and understand that a storm like this was coming. I mean, look at the video posted above - looks like a normal day and we're 12 hours from devastation.

Could you imagine a 12-foot storm surge and then this mammoth storm that seemingly came out of nowhere with no warning? It kills all of your cattle, drowns your crops, and half of your friends. You can kind of understand why they thought it was God punishing them, etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indianola,_Texas

Indianola is a ghost town located on Matagorda Bay in Calhoun County, Texas, United States. The community, once the county seat of Calhoun County, is a part of the Victoria, Texas, Metropolitan Statistical Area. In 1875, the city had a population of 5,000, but on September 15 of that year, a powerful hurricane struck, killing between 150 and 300 and almost entirely destroying the town. Indianola was rebuilt, only to be wiped out on August 19, 1886, by another intense hurricane, which was followed by a fire.

Louis L'amour's book Matagorda is set around the time of the 1875 storm.
Digging around a little bit I found this bit of history. In 1886 when Indianola was destroyed by a suspected Cat 4, the area around Sabine Pass was also destroyed by a different Cat 3 storm. There apparently were four Texas strikes that year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1886_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Ten
Anti-taxxer
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So....the turn?
FHKChE07
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My slab is probably another 15 feet up from the high water mark from Harvey so that gives me a bit of a reference point but that would be crazy. Only a few houses flooded in our neighborhood but our neighborhood is built essentially on a hill (really the river bank) so you gain elevation quickly.
TheVarian
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jetch17 said:


Cedar Bayou Ag
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As with game day threads, i need to avoid TexAgs storm threads cuz i get worried at both
cmag
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lawless89 said:

I sure hope the fact that the weather channel and all other news station are correct in not even mentioning Houston anymore...because it seems like a lot of us here think differently! Hope we are wrong! Would be absolutely catastrophic if it didn't turn.
What models did y'all run?
Ducks4brkfast
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Nagler said:

lawless89 said:

I sure hope the fact that the weather channel and all other news station are correct in not even mentioning Houston anymore...because it seems like a lot of us here think differently! Hope we are wrong! Would be absolutely catastrophic if it didn't turn.


I'm choosing to believe the pros and not a bunch of fandoms on the internet that just started staring at spinning clouds.
Um, excuse me, but we're coronavirus experts.
Jet Black
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Nagler said:

lawless89 said:

I sure hope the fact that the weather channel and all other news station are correct in not even mentioning Houston anymore...because it seems like a lot of us here think differently! Hope we are wrong! Would be absolutely catastrophic if it didn't turn.


I'm choosing to believe the pros and not a bunch of fandoms on the internet that just started staring at spinning clouds.


Anyone with a properly functioning brain is.
P.H. Dexippus
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I did exactly that returning from a business trip in Corpus a couple years ago. The cemetery is amazing. So many German immigrants came through there on their way to central Texas. It's an interesting "what if" to think what the area would have become as a leading sea port on the Texas gulf coast.



BohunkAg
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Nagler said:

lawless89 said:

I sure hope the fact that the weather channel and all other news station are correct in not even mentioning Houston anymore...because it seems like a lot of us here think differently! Hope we are wrong! Would be absolutely catastrophic if it didn't turn.


I'm choosing to believe the pros and not a bunch of fandoms on the internet that just started staring at spinning clouds.
You don't believe "a smart guy on another board?"
HelloUncleNateFitch
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Nagler said:

lawless89 said:

I sure hope the fact that the weather channel and all other news station are correct in not even mentioning Houston anymore...because it seems like a lot of us here think differently! Hope we are wrong! Would be absolutely catastrophic if it didn't turn.


I'm choosing to believe the pros and not a bunch of fandoms on the internet that just started staring at spinning clouds.


I with you, but not all the experts agree.

 
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