Zobel said:
Galveston is already under a mandatory evacuation order.
Bregxit said:Fitch said:Update earlier this morning:Fitch said:
Got some copied/pasted text messages via my grad school buddy from his cousin who works at the hurricane center in Florida. He's an Ag, so if you're on this thread, thanks for looking out!
In essence says there's a reasonable possibility on the table Laura goes to Cat 4 up Galveston Bay, no necessarily that will happen. Also a fairly good chance Houston will be in the region of tropical storm winds.
Kind of crazy there's that much variability ~48 hours out.
Obligatory:
- Situation is as bad as it gets for hurricane landfall.
- Rapidly intensifying hurricane for next 36 hours very likely making it to category 4. Some guidance suggests cat 5.
- Best analogy is Hurricane Michael (2018) that did catastrophic tree damage to Georgia.
- If models verify for intensity and (if) location tracks over Houston metro then we're looking at severe wind damage up to the Woodlands & perhaps Huntsville, extended power outages will be possible as far north as Shreveport.
- Have not seen something like this before if you live in southeast Texas.
Is your buddy's cousin Frank Billingsley's son or brother? That prediction seems pretty far fetched.
Nitro Power said:
Question...What are the consequences of ignoring a mandatory evac order? I have always wondered how that works.
Detective Jake Peralta said:
Maybe 10:03 Pacific (12:03 central)? The live shot of Galveston is daytime.
Yep. And I recall vividly the words from ESPN the following Saturday - you're looking live at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas, where the Aggies will not be playing today.Miles Finch said:
Anyone remember Hurricane Gilbert in 1988? Similar track as Laura and the models consistently predicted a Houston landfall, however it never turned north and took a straight line to Brownsville.
Nitro Power said:
Question...What are the consequences of ignoring a mandatory evac order? I have always wondered how that works.
Nitro Power said:
And Euro is the gold standard right?
i remember that as a kid as the only time my dad boarded our windows up and we bailed for grandparents in Dallas - and all for nothingMiles Finch said:
Anyone remember Hurricane Gilbert in 1988? Similar track as Laura and the models consistently predicted a Houston landfall, however it never turned north and took a straight line to Brownsville.
JJxvi said:Those model tracks appear to have been initialized when the storm hadnt even crossed Cuba yet. Thats the most recent they wanna show us?Seabreeze said:
They just showed this on the weather Channel
I remember them saying that during Harvey, too. I wonder how many people actually have done that? The types of people who refuse to evacuate don't seem like the types of people who would listen and write their SSN on their armSeabreeze said:
they can threaten with jail or fine, but they won't. The law will just tell you you're own your own dont call them. Durring Ike they were telling people who stayed to write their SS numbers in sharpie on their forearms for ID if they found them dead.
jetch17 said:i remember that as a kid as the only time my dad boarded our windows up and we bailed for grandparents in Dallas - and all for nothingMiles Finch said:
Anyone remember Hurricane Gilbert in 1988? Similar track as Laura and the models consistently predicted a Houston landfall, however it never turned north and took a straight line to Brownsville.
So.....how did the Euro handle Harvey?gigemJTH12 said:
so basically it all comes down to if you believe the Euro or all the others?
BrazosDog02 said:So.....how did the Euro handle Harvey?gigemJTH12 said:
so basically it all comes down to if you believe the Euro or all the others?
Asking for a friend.
Nitro Power said:
You do not want the answer to that question.
I was in high school in the Valley. They let us out of school saying, "go help your families get ready for the storm. See you on Monday..hopefully." We boarded up, got a little bit of rain, and it hit La Pesca Mexico instead of Brownsville. LOLjetch17 said:i remember that as a kid as the only time my dad boarded our windows up and we bailed for grandparents in Dallas - and all for nothingMiles Finch said:
Anyone remember Hurricane Gilbert in 1988? Similar track as Laura and the models consistently predicted a Houston landfall, however it never turned north and took a straight line to Brownsville.
I can assure you I have no idea who you are talking about, but these are solid texags handles if thats what these are.Anti-taxxer said:BrazosDog02 said:So.....how did the Euro handle Harvey?gigemJTH12 said:
so basically it all comes down to if you believe the Euro or all the others?
Asking for a friend.
Is your friend Camelclub? Or camelback? Cameltoe? Whatever
BrazosDog02 said:I can assure you I have no idea who you are talking about, but these are solid texags handles if thats what these are.Anti-taxxer said:BrazosDog02 said:So.....how did the Euro handle Harvey?gigemJTH12 said:
so basically it all comes down to if you believe the Euro or all the others?
Asking for a friend.
Is your friend Camelclub? Or camelback? Cameltoe? Whatever
Quote:
The European model is the best forecasting system in the world for several reasons, most notably because the European modeling center has invested heavily in their model. It has the most advanced computer hardware and has devised the best system to assimilate real-time meteorological observations into its model for future runs. This means the model runs start with the most accurate initial conditions.
When looking at the data, we see several interesting trends. Among the global models, through a 72-hour forecast, the UK model is generally a little bit more accurate than the European model. However at longer time frames, four- and five-day forecasts, the European model shows its class. In fact, the four-day forecasts of the European model were more accurate than the consensus model or even the human forecasters at the National Hurricane Center who weigh all of this data to make their five-day forecasts and draw the cone of uncertainty.
Also of note? NOAA's new hurricane model, the HMON, performed terribly.
Fitch said:
Interesting note on the euro model from the above link:Quote:
The European model is the best forecasting system in the world for several reasons, most notably because the European modeling center has invested heavily in their model. It has the most advanced computer hardware and has devised the best system to assimilate real-time meteorological observations into its model for future runs. This means the model runs start with the most accurate initial conditions.
When looking at the data, we see several interesting trends. Among the global models, through a 72-hour forecast, the UK model is generally a little bit more accurate than the European model. However at longer time frames, four- and five-day forecasts, the European model shows its class. In fact, the four-day forecasts of the European model were more accurate than the consensus model or even the human forecasters at the National Hurricane Center who weigh all of this data to make their five-day forecasts and draw the cone of uncertainty.
Also of note? NOAA's new hurricane model, the HMON, performed terribly.
People forget that the context for Rita was a few weeks after Katrina and it had reached a lower pressure than Katrina while out in the Caribbean. After watching the utter chaos of New Orleans people totally freaked out. Knew a couple of people in west Houston that were told by their spouse "we are leaving with or without you." Another told me about relatives calling from the Northeast sobbing on the phone, "you and the kids have to leave."Anti-taxxer said:jetch17 said:i remember that as a kid as the only time my dad boarded our windows up and we bailed for grandparents in Dallas - and all for nothingMiles Finch said:
Anyone remember Hurricane Gilbert in 1988? Similar track as Laura and the models consistently predicted a Houston landfall, however it never turned north and took a straight line to Brownsville.
Every time I think of evacuating, I think of Rita. Tons of prep, and we didn't even get a gust of wind.
And some poor tree had to die to protect the inside of Loupot's windows.
Death...or if you survive, the news crew interviews you as you're standing in the middle of rubble with your clothes all tattered talking about how "Me and Verleen were holdin' onto the water heater for dear life as it sounded like a freight train was coming through our livin' room..." and someone on Texags recognizes you and plasters you all over this thread, kinda like the moron who drove his Camry into the high water and had to be rescued on live TV.Nitro Power said:
Question...What are the consequences of ignoring a mandatory evac order? I have always wondered how that works.
