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Tropical two-fer

536,953 Views | 3418 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by V8Aggie
Nagler
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What wind rating does a standard house fan? At what point does it become dangerous to try to "hide from the wind" when the wind might fall on your head?
98Ag99Grad
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Nitro Power said:

Thursday at 4 AM

LOL...no sht. This one has been a btch to nail down
Ragoo
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aftershock said:

Ragoo said:

I just hope I can get my Wednesday evening run in.


Run against the wind on the way out to get the legs burning, run with the wind a coast on the way back in
against the wind. I was running against the wind. Against the wind.
Gig-Em2003
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98Ag99Grad said:

Nitro Power said:

Thursday at 4 AM

LOL...no sht. This one has been a btch to nail down


Honestly the track hasn't changed much at all. It's the doubt coming from Berger and a few others that has everyone puckered.
AeroAg1
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Gig-Em2003 said:

98Ag99Grad said:

Nitro Power said:

Thursday at 4 AM

LOL...no sht. This one has been a btch to nail down


Honestly the track hasn't changed much at all. It's the doubt coming from Berger and a few others that has everyone puckered.
It's track from the west coast of Florida to Houston. She's not predictable.
Burn-It
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Coog97 said:

In Clear Lake... about three miles down Space Center Blvd from Nassau Bay, right at Bay Area Blvd.

I'm on the fence as to go or not.
Rita moved a bunch of water across NASA Rd1. Most of Nassau Bay flooded and the Hilton was tore up pretty good. Your location floods pretty good with sustained heavy rains, but I don't think you need to worry too much about storm surge.
AKA 13-0
TexAgsSean
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Gig-Em2003 said:

98Ag99Grad said:

Nitro Power said:

Thursday at 4 AM

LOL...no sht. This one has been a btch to nail down


Honestly the track hasn't changed much at all. It's the doubt coming from Berger and a few others that has everyone puckered.


Isn't it the European model (that is supposedly the most accurate) pushing it westward that has everyone puckered?
Caliber
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mm98 said:

Trolley Problems said:

Have a generator for the refrigerator and deep freezer, and the wife is making a Total Wine run today. Need to fill up a couple of gas cans, but I think we're good beyond that. We'll see how this goes.


Pretty much where I'm at.
You guys do know you can have total wine deliver, right?
inconvenient truth
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rudy99 said:

Gig-Em2003 said:

98Ag99Grad said:

Nitro Power said:

Thursday at 4 AM

LOL...no sht. This one has been a btch to nail down


Honestly the track hasn't changed much at all. It's the doubt coming from Berger and a few others that has everyone puckered.
It's track from the west coast of Florida to Houston. She's not predictable.

Just like a woman, can't make up her damned mind
Fitch
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Fitch said:

Got some copied/pasted text messages via my grad school buddy from his cousin who works at the hurricane center in Florida. He's an Ag, so if you're on this thread, thanks for looking out!

In essence says there's a reasonable possibility on the table Laura goes to Cat 4 up Galveston Bay, no necessarily that will happen. Also a fairly good chance Houston will be in the region of tropical storm winds.

Kind of crazy there's that much variability ~48 hours out.

Obligatory:

Update earlier this morning:
  • Situation is as bad as it gets for hurricane landfall.
  • Rapidly intensifying hurricane for next 36 hours very likely making it to category 4. Some guidance suggests cat 5.
  • Best analogy is Hurricane Michael (2018) that did catastrophic tree damage to Georgia.
  • If models verify for intensity and (if) location tracks over Houston metro then we're looking at severe wind damage up to the Woodlands & perhaps Huntsville, extended power outages will be possible as far north as Shreveport.
  • Have not seen something like this before if you live in southeast Texas.

Seabreeze
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tamuags08
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wind damage in huntsville? That seems pretty extreme.
deadbq03
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Seeing that makes me think it's just gonna keep fooling everyone and slam Corpus.

Only half-kidding.
Seabreeze
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The Euro starting to lean West of Houston now. So not out of the realm of possibility.
Seabreeze
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They just showed this on the weather Channel
TexAgsSean
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Seabreeze said:

The Euro starting to lean West of Houston now. So not out of the realm of possibility.


Do you have a link to the euro weather model?
Cedar Bayou Ag
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so is the High pressure system caused by marco starting to move farther west? and this is why it's trending more westward?
Nitro Power
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Link?
Seabreeze
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Link is the pic I just posted, thats the euro runs from the weather Channel
Anti-taxxer
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tamuags08 said:

wind damage in huntsville? That seems pretty extreme.

My parents live in the 'Ville. After Ike, they had tons of damage and no power for two weeks.
Seabreeze
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Lastest Euro.
JJxvi
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Seabreeze said:

They just showed this on the weather Channel

Those model tracks appear to have been initialized when the storm hadnt even crossed Cuba yet. Thats the most recent they wanna show us?
Seabreeze
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Link
https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=AL13
TexAgsSean
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JJxvi said:

Seabreeze said:

They just showed this on the weather Channel

Those model tracks appear to have been initialized when the storm hadnt even crossed Cuba yet. Thats the most recent they wanna show us?


They show the storm northwest of Cuba
Nitro Power
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Thanks
Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno
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Is it just me or does the euro looks like it's tracking right up 288
deadbq03
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TexAgsSean said:

JJxvi said:

Seabreeze said:

They just showed this on the weather Channel

Those model tracks appear to have been initialized when the storm hadnt even crossed Cuba yet. Thats the most recent they wanna show us?


They show the storm northwest of Cuba
Nevermind... live Galveston shot is daylight. Still, very weird.
gigemJTH12
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so basically it all comes down to if you believe the Euro or all the others?
Martin Q. Blank
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TexAgsSean said:

JJxvi said:

Seabreeze said:

They just showed this on the weather Channel

Those model tracks appear to have been initialized when the storm hadnt even crossed Cuba yet. Thats the most recent they wanna show us?


They show the storm northwest of Cuba
Why does it have projection lines behind it?
BowSowy
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Seabreeze said:

Lastest Euro.

Woof. Don't like that at all
Nitro Power
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And Euro is the gold standard right?
JJxvi
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TexAgsSean said:

JJxvi said:

Seabreeze said:

They just showed this on the weather Channel

Those model tracks appear to have been initialized when the storm hadnt even crossed Cuba yet. Thats the most recent they wanna show us?


Nvm
Yeah its the current storm position in red overlayed over yello model track lines that were generated back when the storm was where the yellow lines start.
Detective Jake Peralta
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Maybe 10:03 Pacific (12:03 central)? The live shot of Galveston is daytime.
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Anti-taxxer
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Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:

Is it just me or does the euro looks like it's tracking right up 288

That's about my luck.
 
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