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Tropical two-fer

536,156 Views | 3418 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by V8Aggie
SLAM
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In reply to Anti-taxxer • 9:08p, 8/24/20
Anti-taxxer said:
It is very unsettling to me that the Space City guys are not agreeing with the NHC. I know they are very cautious in their forecasting, and their posts make me nervous that we are about to get **** on by this storm.


The NHC is generally very conservative because they have to take into account politics and citizen effects. They don't want to cause massive panic at all, this is why they give the cone of uncertainty. Since both Houston and SW LA are in the cone, they are still good. They will shift as more data becomes available, but generally they are the last to shift.

This is a storm where there is so much uncertainty that everyone within the cone should make preparations.
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gougler08
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In reply to Anti-taxxer • 9:10p, 8/24/20
AG
Anti-taxxer said:
It is very unsettling to me that the Space City guys are not agreeing with the NHC. I know they are very cautious in their forecasting, and their posts make me nervous that we are about to get **** on by this storm.


They've been slow to agree with it the whole time...that Euro ensemble has a lot of the mets spooked it seems
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Ducks4brkfast
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9:13p, 8/24/20
AG
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gigemJTH12
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9:14p, 8/24/20
AG
Air Force ag on premium believes the euro toward Houston.
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SLAM
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In reply to Ducks4brkfast • 9:14p, 8/24/20
Ducks4brkfast said:


Members? Members of what?
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Onceaggie2.0
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9:14p, 8/24/20
Does this blow through or hover?
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SLAM
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In reply to gigemJTH12 • 9:14p, 8/24/20
gigemJTH12 said:
Air Force ag on premium believes the euro toward Houston.


I definitely trust him a lot. He's absolutely solid.
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Premium
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In reply to SLAM • 9:16p, 8/24/20
AG
SLAM said:
Ducks4brkfast said:


Members? Members of what?


Skull and Bones
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BowSowy
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In reply to SLAM • 9:16p, 8/24/20
AG
SLAM said:
BowSowy said:
SLAM said:
Anti-taxxer said:
Who is this dude? He doesn't even have a check mark. He just likes the weather?


He's a meteorologist, go read his bio at his website. Given that he studies models, I'm trust his opinion on them.

Also, just from following storms the last few years, the ECMWF is generally the best model nowadays as the GFS has really fallen down. The HMRF is really good for intensity but not so great for track. The UKMET is also a good model.

It's a shame but the Euros are beating us in the tropical models now.
I think you're just here trying to stir up fear porn. This morning you were saying the UKMET has been by far the most accurate and the ECMFW has been mostly garbage ( https://texags.com/forums/38/topics/3125797/replies/57216877#57216877 ). Now that UKMET shifted East and ECMFW shows a hit closer to Houston, you're saying that ECMFW is "generally the best".



The UKMET has been good for this particular storm, but the ECMWF is a better model overall. The GFS has been crap for every storm. This isn't that hard.
So the UKMET, which has been good for this storm, has shifted it East. And the ECMWF, which hasn't been as good for this storm, doesn't? But when the UKMET still had it south of Galveston Bay, that was something you felt commenting on. When the UKMET shifted it towards the boarder, you decided to shift your focus towards ECMFW? I'm just trying to make sure I have this right.
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Gig-Em2003
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In reply to Onceaggie2.0 • 9:16p, 8/24/20
AG
FPS_Dough said:
Does this blow through or hover?


Consensus says no stalling with this one.
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Kenneth_2003
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In reply to Onceaggie2.0 • 9:16p, 8/24/20
AG
FPS_Dough said:
Does this blow through or hover?


Blows on through. No models project lingering.
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gougler08
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In reply to SLAM • 9:17p, 8/24/20
AG
SLAM said:
gigemJTH12 said:
Air Force ag on premium believes the euro toward Houston.


I definitely trust him a lot. He's absolutely solid.


Yeah I don't like that
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Kenneth_2003
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In reply to SLAM • 9:17p, 8/24/20
AG
SLAM said:
gigemJTH12 said:
Air Force ag on premium believes the euro toward Houston.


I definitely trust him a lot. He's absolutely solid.


S**T!!!

Edit... that prediction. Air force Ag is a good poster.
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Onceaggie2.0
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In reply to Kenneth_2003 • 9:17p, 8/24/20
Kenneth_2003 said:
FPS_Dough said:
Does this blow through or hover?


Blows on through. No models project lingering.
Thanks thats good at least
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SLAM
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In reply to Gig-Em2003 • 9:17p, 8/24/20
Gig-Em2003 said:
FPS_Dough said:
Does this blow through or hover?


Consensus says no stalling with this one.


Yeah this storm is moving.
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Cromagnum
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9:18p, 8/24/20
AG
They are saying the low level circulation was found south of Cuba and that swirl on the Northwest side is a mid level circulation and not the actual center. Butthole pucker engaged.

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SLAM
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In reply to Premium • 9:18p, 8/24/20
Premium said:
SLAM said:
Ducks4brkfast said:


Members? Members of what?


Skull and Bones


BUSH CAUSED LAURA!
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kelkel25
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9:18p, 8/24/20
Get some sleep tonight and tomorrow, Wednesday is gonna be a long one. Hunker down Tine
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jenn96
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In reply to Kenneth_2003 • 9:18p, 8/24/20
AG
Kenneth_2003 said:
FPS_Dough said:
Does this blow through or hover?


Blows on through. No models project lingering.

Thank God for that at least.
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ChemAg15
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9:19p, 8/24/20
AG
Stalling is the exception, correct? Is everyone just asking about the stall since Harvey is recent memory?
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SLAM
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In reply to ChemAg15 • 9:21p, 8/24/20
ChemAg15 said:
Stalling is the exception, correct? Is everyone just asking about the stall since Harvey is recent memory?


Yeah that was entirely unique for a major hurricane. Zero steering currents for a major hurricane is extremely rare. We may never see that anywhere again in our lifetime.
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Ducks4brkfast
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In reply to SLAM • 9:21p, 8/24/20
AG
SLAM said:
Ducks4brkfast said:


Members? Members of what?


Ensemble Prediction System
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Kenneth_2003
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In reply to ChemAg15 • 9:22p, 8/24/20
AG
ChemAg15 said:
Stalling is the exception, correct? Is everyone just asking about the stall since Harvey is recent memory?


Yes. Slow moving occasionally happens. Hitting rockport, going to san Antonio, heading fishing at POC, then hanging out in houston for a week just ain't typical.

Longest over land named storm in recorded history.
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Gig-Em2003
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In reply to ChemAg15 • 9:22p, 8/24/20
AG
ChemAg15 said:
Stalling is the exception, correct? Is everyone just asking about the stall since Harvey is recent memory?


Yes

This will be a wind storm unlike Harvey. Surge, wind, rain, tornadoes. But flooding unlikely unless it's from surge.
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Seabreeze
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In reply to Cromagnum • 9:22p, 8/24/20
There is the center of circulation as of right now
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jenn96
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9:23p, 8/24/20
AG
If Laura hits us as a hurricane, when on Wednesday is it projected? Late?
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Seabreeze
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In reply to jenn96 • 9:24p, 8/24/20
night time of course.. it wouldn't be as fun in the daytime.
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tamuags08
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In reply to SLAM • 9:25p, 8/24/20
AG
SLAM said:
ChemAg15 said:
Stalling is the exception, correct? Is everyone just asking about the stall since Harvey is recent memory?


Yeah that was entirely unique for a major hurricane. Zero steering currents for a major hurricane is extremely rare. We may never see that anywhere again in our lifetime.


God willing
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Kenneth_2003
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In reply to jenn96 • 9:25p, 8/24/20
AG
jenn96 said:
If Laura hits us as a hurricane, when on Wednesday is it projected? Late?


Oh you know... middle of the night...
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Gig-Em2003
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9:26p, 8/24/20
AG
Landfall early Thursday morning, middle of night. Wind would start being meaningful late Wednesday. Surge could be meaningful Wednesday morning if it's the monster they think it will be.
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BowSowy
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In reply to Cromagnum • 9:26p, 8/24/20
AG
Cromagnum said:
They are saying the low level circulation was found south of Cuba and that swirl on the Northwest side is a mid level circulation and not the actual center. Butthole pucker engaged.

Who is they?
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scd88
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In reply to jenn96 • 9:26p, 8/24/20
AG
Late.
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Agz_2003
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In reply to Gig-Em2003 • 9:26p, 8/24/20
AG
Gig-Em2003 said:
ChemAg15 said:
Stalling is the exception, correct? Is everyone just asking about the stall since Harvey is recent memory?


Yes

This will be a wind storm unlike Harvey. Surge, wind, rain, tornadoes. But flooding unlikely unless it's from surge.


Sounds like hurricane Ike
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Gig-Em2003
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9:27p, 8/24/20
AG
Yep. Ike surge flooded Galveston ~18 hrs before landfall.
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texsn95
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9:28p, 8/24/20
AG
If you had 31 single-pane windows, would you be worried? 3 are big 4x8s by the living room.
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