Who is this dude? He doesn't even have a check mark. He just likes the weather?
Tropical two-fer
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Last: 3 yr ago by V8Aggie
That's pretty subjective.
Some models handle certain situations, characteristics, and individual systems better than others.
It's not as simple as model ABC is the best for the tropics.
Some models handle certain situations, characteristics, and individual systems better than others.
It's not as simple as model ABC is the best for the tropics.
Anti-taxxer said:
Who is this dude? He doesn't even have a check mark. He just likes the weather?
Exactly what I was thinking. Tweeting fire emojis and "Houston we have a problem" doesn't really help me respect his opinion on a topic like this.
Look at me kinda posting!
CincyAg said:Anti-taxxer said:
Who is this dude? He doesn't even have a check mark. He just likes the weather?
Exactly what I was thinking. Tweeting fire emojis and "Houston we have a problem" doesn't really help me respect his opinion on a topic like this.
And his ranking system includes categories such as "GOAT" and "meh".
Has the info from the hunter planes already come back?
Anti-taxxer said:
Who is this dude? He doesn't even have a check mark. He just likes the weather?
He's a meteorologist, go read his bio at his website. Given that he studies models, I'm trust his opinion on them.
Also, just from following storms the last few years, the ECMWF is generally the best model nowadays as the GFS has really fallen down. The HMRF is really good for intensity but not so great for track. The UKMET is also a good model.
It's a shame but the Euros are beating us in the tropical models now.
I don't have the chops to weigh in too far. I'm a dirt engineer turned management consultant.
But ensembles have reigned the past 48 hrs because of statistics. Probability makes sense when uncertainty reigns.
However, we're close to the hour where probabilistic are going to figure this out and align. Unfortunately, we're running out of time to react on that alignment.
In the end, the operational models will be right. But no one knows at what point and at what unfortunate cone. Assume the worst, hope for the best per SCW.
But ensembles have reigned the past 48 hrs because of statistics. Probability makes sense when uncertainty reigns.
However, we're close to the hour where probabilistic are going to figure this out and align. Unfortunately, we're running out of time to react on that alignment.
In the end, the operational models will be right. But no one knows at what point and at what unfortunate cone. Assume the worst, hope for the best per SCW.
RangerRick9211 said:
I don't have the chops to weigh in too far. I'm a dirt engineer turned management consultant.
But ensembles have reigned the past 48 hrs because of statistics. Probability makes sense when uncertainty reigns.
However, we're close to the hour where probabilistic are going to figure this out and align. Unfortunately, we're running out of time to react on that alignment.
In the end, the operational models will be right. But no one knows at what point and at what unfortunate cone. Assume the worst, hope for the best per SCW.
What does dirt engineering entail?
Bet the dude can build a sweet sand castle
Anti-taxxer said:RangerRick9211 said:
I don't have the chops to weigh in too far. I'm a dirt engineer turned management consultant.
But ensembles have reigned the past 48 hrs because of statistics. Probability makes sense when uncertainty reigns.
However, we're close to the hour where probabilistic are going to figure this out and align. Unfortunately, we're running out of time to react on that alignment.
In the end, the operational models will be right. But no one knows at what point and at what unfortunate cone. Assume the worst, hope for the best per SCW.
What does dirt engineering entail?
Not meteorology. So, grain of salt and Holiday Inn.
third coast.. said:
OK Wtf. The NHC updates all day have been showing it in western LA. Now everything in the last 2 hours is showing it slamming the tine. Are any of these latest ones actually legit?
Are you really surprised?
Everyone has said that later tonight once it's flown and starts to clear Cuba we'll know more.
Did anyone watch Turner's presser today?
The fact that Space City hasn't put out an update is concerning.
They said by 9 and they've usually had something out by now.
Lanza has already said he was concerned that the European model wasn't cooperating earlier.
They said by 9 and they've usually had something out by now.
Lanza has already said he was concerned that the European model wasn't cooperating earlier.
I've been refreshing every minute, it seems like.
Latest intensity and GFS runs. Twitter im not, so take it for what its worth. Off to bed. Plenty of resources to get real time info. Weather Nerds, Tropical Tidbits, NHC, Cyclonic and Mikes Weather Page is good and has links to every thing you need.
CincyAg said:
https://spacecityweather.com/laura-will-enter-the-gulf-tonight-as-the-storms-track-possibilities-narrow-slightly/
Gah. Nothing new.
Should Know more tomorrow morning
https://spacecityweather.com/laura-will-enter-the-gulf-tonight-as-the-storms-track-possibilities-narrow-slightly/
https://spacecityweather.com/laura-will-enter-the-gulf-tonight-as-the-storms-track-possibilities-narrow-slightly/
Tight butt holes until tomorrow's update.
I think you're just here trying to stir up fear porn. This morning you were saying the UKMET has been by far the most accurate and the ECMFW has been mostly garbage ( https://texags.com/forums/38/topics/3125797/replies/57216877#57216877 ). Now that UKMET shifted East and ECMFW shows a hit closer to Houston, you're saying that ECMFW is "generally the best".SLAM said:Anti-taxxer said:
Who is this dude? He doesn't even have a check mark. He just likes the weather?
He's a meteorologist, go read his bio at his website. Given that he studies models, I'm trust his opinion on them.
Also, just from following storms the last few years, the ECMWF is generally the best model nowadays as the GFS has really fallen down. The HMRF is really good for intensity but not so great for track. The UKMET is also a good model.
It's a shame but the Euros are beating us in the tropical models now.
It is very unsettling to me that the Space City guys are not agreeing with the NHC. I know they are very cautious in their forecasting, and their posts make me nervous that we are about to get **** on by this storm.
Anti-taxxer said:
It is very unsettling to me that the Space City guys are not agreeing with the NHC. I know they are very cautious in their forecasting, and their posts make me nervous that we are about to get **** on by this storm.
I think it's better to be safe than sorry when it comes to things like potential Cat 4 hurricanes.
meatsweats said:
Should Know more tomorrow morning
https://spacecityweather.com/laura-will-enter-the-gulf-tonight-as-the-storms-track-possibilities-narrow-slightly/
Username checks out
That's what's great about those guys.
If they don't know they won't say.
If they don't know they won't say.
The most unbiased, science-based source is reporting hopeful news. This doesn't look so bad.
Haven't followed all that closely, are there any concerns about it stalling out or is it going to push on through?
BowSowy said:I think you're just here trying to stir up fear porn. This morning you were saying the UKMET has been by far the most accurate and the ECMFW has been mostly garbage ( https://texags.com/forums/38/topics/3125797/replies/57216877#57216877 ). Now that UKMET shifted East and ECMFW shows a hit closer to Houston, you're saying that ECMFW is "generally the best".SLAM said:Anti-taxxer said:
Who is this dude? He doesn't even have a check mark. He just likes the weather?
He's a meteorologist, go read his bio at his website. Given that he studies models, I'm trust his opinion on them.
Also, just from following storms the last few years, the ECMWF is generally the best model nowadays as the GFS has really fallen down. The HMRF is really good for intensity but not so great for track. The UKMET is also a good model.
It's a shame but the Euros are beating us in the tropical models now.
The UKMET has been good for this particular storm, but the ECMWF is a better model overall. The GFS has been crap for every storm. This isn't that hard.
Premium said:Anti-taxxer said:
It is very unsettling to me that the Space City guys are not agreeing with the NHC. I know they are very cautious in their forecasting, and their posts make me nervous that we are about to get **** on by this storm.
I think it's better to be safe than sorry when it comes to things like potential Cat 4 hurricanes.
I absolutely agree with you! They are always so cautious, and don't hype their forecasts. I respect their forecasting, and believe they are as spot-on as they can be. That they are not in lock-step with the NHC models worries me *because* I trust them.
Ag_07 said:
That's what's great about those guys.
If they don't know they won't say.
Agreed. I love the way they handle their business.
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