Who is this dude? He doesn't even have a check mark. He just likes the weather?
Anti-taxxer said:
Who is this dude? He doesn't even have a check mark. He just likes the weather?
CincyAg said:Anti-taxxer said:
Who is this dude? He doesn't even have a check mark. He just likes the weather?
Exactly what I was thinking. Tweeting fire emojis and "Houston we have a problem" doesn't really help me respect his opinion on a topic like this.
Anti-taxxer said:
Who is this dude? He doesn't even have a check mark. He just likes the weather?
RangerRick9211 said:
I don't have the chops to weigh in too far. I'm a dirt engineer turned management consultant.
But ensembles have reigned the past 48 hrs because of statistics. Probability makes sense when uncertainty reigns.
However, we're close to the hour where probabilistic are going to figure this out and align. Unfortunately, we're running out of time to react on that alignment.
In the end, the operational models will be right. But no one knows at what point and at what unfortunate cone. Assume the worst, hope for the best per SCW.
Anti-taxxer said:RangerRick9211 said:
I don't have the chops to weigh in too far. I'm a dirt engineer turned management consultant.
But ensembles have reigned the past 48 hrs because of statistics. Probability makes sense when uncertainty reigns.
However, we're close to the hour where probabilistic are going to figure this out and align. Unfortunately, we're running out of time to react on that alignment.
In the end, the operational models will be right. But no one knows at what point and at what unfortunate cone. Assume the worst, hope for the best per SCW.
What does dirt engineering entail?
third coast.. said:
OK Wtf. The NHC updates all day have been showing it in western LA. Now everything in the last 2 hours is showing it slamming the tine. Are any of these latest ones actually legit?
CincyAg said:
https://spacecityweather.com/laura-will-enter-the-gulf-tonight-as-the-storms-track-possibilities-narrow-slightly/
I think you're just here trying to stir up fear porn. This morning you were saying the UKMET has been by far the most accurate and the ECMFW has been mostly garbage ( https://texags.com/forums/38/topics/3125797/replies/57216877#57216877 ). Now that UKMET shifted East and ECMFW shows a hit closer to Houston, you're saying that ECMFW is "generally the best".SLAM said:Anti-taxxer said:
Who is this dude? He doesn't even have a check mark. He just likes the weather?
He's a meteorologist, go read his bio at his website. Given that he studies models, I'm trust his opinion on them.
Also, just from following storms the last few years, the ECMWF is generally the best model nowadays as the GFS has really fallen down. The HMRF is really good for intensity but not so great for track. The UKMET is also a good model.
It's a shame but the Euros are beating us in the tropical models now.
Anti-taxxer said:
It is very unsettling to me that the Space City guys are not agreeing with the NHC. I know they are very cautious in their forecasting, and their posts make me nervous that we are about to get **** on by this storm.
meatsweats said:
Should Know more tomorrow morning
https://spacecityweather.com/laura-will-enter-the-gulf-tonight-as-the-storms-track-possibilities-narrow-slightly/
BowSowy said:I think you're just here trying to stir up fear porn. This morning you were saying the UKMET has been by far the most accurate and the ECMFW has been mostly garbage ( https://texags.com/forums/38/topics/3125797/replies/57216877#57216877 ). Now that UKMET shifted East and ECMFW shows a hit closer to Houston, you're saying that ECMFW is "generally the best".SLAM said:Anti-taxxer said:
Who is this dude? He doesn't even have a check mark. He just likes the weather?
He's a meteorologist, go read his bio at his website. Given that he studies models, I'm trust his opinion on them.
Also, just from following storms the last few years, the ECMWF is generally the best model nowadays as the GFS has really fallen down. The HMRF is really good for intensity but not so great for track. The UKMET is also a good model.
It's a shame but the Euros are beating us in the tropical models now.
Premium said:Anti-taxxer said:
It is very unsettling to me that the Space City guys are not agreeing with the NHC. I know they are very cautious in their forecasting, and their posts make me nervous that we are about to get **** on by this storm.
I think it's better to be safe than sorry when it comes to things like potential Cat 4 hurricanes.
Ag_07 said:
That's what's great about those guys.
If they don't know they won't say.