Houston
Sponsored by

Tropical two-fer

533,498 Views | 3418 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by V8Aggie
SLAM
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Anti-taxxer • 9:08p, 8/24/20
Anti-taxxer said:
It is very unsettling to me that the Space City guys are not agreeing with the NHC. I know they are very cautious in their forecasting, and their posts make me nervous that we are about to get **** on by this storm.


The NHC is generally very conservative because they have to take into account politics and citizen effects. They don't want to cause massive panic at all, this is why they give the cone of uncertainty. Since both Houston and SW LA are in the cone, they are still good. They will shift as more data becomes available, but generally they are the last to shift.

This is a storm where there is so much uncertainty that everyone within the cone should make preparations.
Reply Quote
gougler08
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Anti-taxxer • 9:10p, 8/24/20
AG
Anti-taxxer said:
It is very unsettling to me that the Space City guys are not agreeing with the NHC. I know they are very cautious in their forecasting, and their posts make me nervous that we are about to get **** on by this storm.


They've been slow to agree with it the whole time...that Euro ensemble has a lot of the mets spooked it seems
Reply Quote
Ducks4brkfast
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:13p, 8/24/20
AG
Reply Quote
gigemJTH12
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:14p, 8/24/20
AG
Air Force ag on premium believes the euro toward Houston.
Reply Quote
SLAM
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Ducks4brkfast • 9:14p, 8/24/20
Ducks4brkfast said:


Members? Members of what?
Reply Quote
1
Onceaggie2.0
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:14p, 8/24/20
Does this blow through or hover?
Reply Quote
SLAM
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to gigemJTH12 • 9:14p, 8/24/20
gigemJTH12 said:
Air Force ag on premium believes the euro toward Houston.


I definitely trust him a lot. He's absolutely solid.
Reply Quote
11
Premium
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to SLAM • 9:16p, 8/24/20
AG
SLAM said:
Ducks4brkfast said:


Members? Members of what?


Skull and Bones
Reply Quote
2
BowSowy
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to SLAM • 9:16p, 8/24/20
AG
SLAM said:
BowSowy said:
SLAM said:
Anti-taxxer said:
Who is this dude? He doesn't even have a check mark. He just likes the weather?


He's a meteorologist, go read his bio at his website. Given that he studies models, I'm trust his opinion on them.

Also, just from following storms the last few years, the ECMWF is generally the best model nowadays as the GFS has really fallen down. The HMRF is really good for intensity but not so great for track. The UKMET is also a good model.

It's a shame but the Euros are beating us in the tropical models now.
I think you're just here trying to stir up fear porn. This morning you were saying the UKMET has been by far the most accurate and the ECMFW has been mostly garbage ( https://texags.com/forums/38/topics/3125797/replies/57216877#57216877 ). Now that UKMET shifted East and ECMFW shows a hit closer to Houston, you're saying that ECMFW is "generally the best".



The UKMET has been good for this particular storm, but the ECMWF is a better model overall. The GFS has been crap for every storm. This isn't that hard.
So the UKMET, which has been good for this storm, has shifted it East. And the ECMWF, which hasn't been as good for this storm, doesn't? But when the UKMET still had it south of Galveston Bay, that was something you felt commenting on. When the UKMET shifted it towards the boarder, you decided to shift your focus towards ECMFW? I'm just trying to make sure I have this right.
Reply Quote
5
Gig-Em2003
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Onceaggie2.0 • 9:16p, 8/24/20
AG
FPS_Dough said:
Does this blow through or hover?


Consensus says no stalling with this one.
Reply Quote
Kenneth_2003
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Onceaggie2.0 • 9:16p, 8/24/20
AG
FPS_Dough said:
Does this blow through or hover?


Blows on through. No models project lingering.
Reply Quote
gougler08
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to SLAM • 9:17p, 8/24/20
AG
SLAM said:
gigemJTH12 said:
Air Force ag on premium believes the euro toward Houston.


I definitely trust him a lot. He's absolutely solid.


Yeah I don't like that
Reply Quote
2
Kenneth_2003
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to SLAM • 9:17p, 8/24/20
AG
SLAM said:
gigemJTH12 said:
Air Force ag on premium believes the euro toward Houston.


I definitely trust him a lot. He's absolutely solid.


S**T!!!

Edit... that prediction. Air force Ag is a good poster.
Reply Quote
1 edit
Onceaggie2.0
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Kenneth_2003 • 9:17p, 8/24/20
Kenneth_2003 said:
FPS_Dough said:
Does this blow through or hover?


Blows on through. No models project lingering.
Thanks thats good at least
Reply Quote
1
SLAM
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Gig-Em2003 • 9:17p, 8/24/20
Gig-Em2003 said:
FPS_Dough said:
Does this blow through or hover?


Consensus says no stalling with this one.


Yeah this storm is moving.
Reply Quote
Cromagnum
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:18p, 8/24/20
AG
They are saying the low level circulation was found south of Cuba and that swirl on the Northwest side is a mid level circulation and not the actual center. Butthole pucker engaged.

Reply Quote
1
SLAM
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Premium • 9:18p, 8/24/20
Premium said:
SLAM said:
Ducks4brkfast said:


Members? Members of what?


Skull and Bones


BUSH CAUSED LAURA!
Reply Quote
kelkel25
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:18p, 8/24/20
Get some sleep tonight and tomorrow, Wednesday is gonna be a long one. Hunker down Tine
Reply Quote
jenn96
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Kenneth_2003 • 9:18p, 8/24/20
AG
Kenneth_2003 said:
FPS_Dough said:
Does this blow through or hover?


Blows on through. No models project lingering.

Thank God for that at least.
Reply Quote
ChemAg15
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:19p, 8/24/20
AG
Stalling is the exception, correct? Is everyone just asking about the stall since Harvey is recent memory?
Reply Quote
2
SLAM
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to ChemAg15 • 9:21p, 8/24/20
ChemAg15 said:
Stalling is the exception, correct? Is everyone just asking about the stall since Harvey is recent memory?


Yeah that was entirely unique for a major hurricane. Zero steering currents for a major hurricane is extremely rare. We may never see that anywhere again in our lifetime.
Reply Quote
Ducks4brkfast
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to SLAM • 9:21p, 8/24/20
AG
SLAM said:
Ducks4brkfast said:


Members? Members of what?


Ensemble Prediction System
Reply Quote
Kenneth_2003
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to ChemAg15 • 9:22p, 8/24/20
AG
ChemAg15 said:
Stalling is the exception, correct? Is everyone just asking about the stall since Harvey is recent memory?


Yes. Slow moving occasionally happens. Hitting rockport, going to san Antonio, heading fishing at POC, then hanging out in houston for a week just ain't typical.

Longest over land named storm in recorded history.
Reply Quote
2
Gig-Em2003
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to ChemAg15 • 9:22p, 8/24/20
AG
ChemAg15 said:
Stalling is the exception, correct? Is everyone just asking about the stall since Harvey is recent memory?


Yes

This will be a wind storm unlike Harvey. Surge, wind, rain, tornadoes. But flooding unlikely unless it's from surge.
Reply Quote
Seabreeze
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Cromagnum • 9:22p, 8/24/20
There is the center of circulation as of right now
Reply Quote
1
jenn96
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:23p, 8/24/20
AG
If Laura hits us as a hurricane, when on Wednesday is it projected? Late?
Reply Quote
1
Seabreeze
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to jenn96 • 9:24p, 8/24/20
night time of course.. it wouldn't be as fun in the daytime.
Reply Quote
7
tamuags08
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to SLAM • 9:25p, 8/24/20
AG
SLAM said:
ChemAg15 said:
Stalling is the exception, correct? Is everyone just asking about the stall since Harvey is recent memory?


Yeah that was entirely unique for a major hurricane. Zero steering currents for a major hurricane is extremely rare. We may never see that anywhere again in our lifetime.


God willing
Reply Quote
Kenneth_2003
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to jenn96 • 9:25p, 8/24/20
AG
jenn96 said:
If Laura hits us as a hurricane, when on Wednesday is it projected? Late?


Oh you know... middle of the night...
Reply Quote
3
Gig-Em2003
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:26p, 8/24/20
AG
Landfall early Thursday morning, middle of night. Wind would start being meaningful late Wednesday. Surge could be meaningful Wednesday morning if it's the monster they think it will be.
Reply Quote
BowSowy
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Cromagnum • 9:26p, 8/24/20
AG
Cromagnum said:
They are saying the low level circulation was found south of Cuba and that swirl on the Northwest side is a mid level circulation and not the actual center. Butthole pucker engaged.

Who is they?
Reply Quote
scd88
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to jenn96 • 9:26p, 8/24/20
AG
Late.
Reply Quote
Agz_2003
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Gig-Em2003 • 9:26p, 8/24/20
AG
Gig-Em2003 said:
ChemAg15 said:
Stalling is the exception, correct? Is everyone just asking about the stall since Harvey is recent memory?


Yes

This will be a wind storm unlike Harvey. Surge, wind, rain, tornadoes. But flooding unlikely unless it's from surge.


Sounds like hurricane Ike
Reply Quote
1
Gig-Em2003
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:27p, 8/24/20
AG
Yep. Ike surge flooded Galveston ~18 hrs before landfall.
Reply Quote
1 edit
texsn95
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:28p, 8/24/20
AG
If you had 31 single-pane windows, would you be worried? 3 are big 4x8s by the living room.
Reply Quote
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.