Then the bet's off. Because I'm simply arguing that they're not going to both introduce and end a pregnancy in the same episode, without it affecting the plot in any way.
It's a completely different situation/argument, however, if Shiv is *still* healthily pregnant after tonight's episode, she tells Tom she's pregnant, they get back together, Shiv's character arc is altered because of her pregnancy, etc, and THEN she suffers a miscarriage due to an unrelated incident, as unlikely as that would be.