A guy who can follow data. Am I not allowed an opinion? I forget the rules some of you arbitrarily set out sometimes. Please let me know what I'm allowed to do from this point forward. Will be anxiously awaiting your orders.
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Last: 2 yr ago by AggieUSMC
opinions are fine, you just sometimes talk as fact when in fact it's a wag with "data".
He's contributing much more usefully to this thread than you.
Where? I said I think 3 different times, and IMO or IMHO, about 3 different times in my last 3 posts.
My two cents and I'm not a doctor, but if those naturally immune were popping positive for the variants it would be all over the news. Armageddon style.
Since it's not I'm of the side those who had it are still good to go. But they can do what they want and if they have questions should seek their doctor and not a TexAgs message board.
Since it's not I'm of the side those who had it are still good to go. But they can do what they want and if they have questions should seek their doctor and not a TexAgs message board.
Agreed. Fauci was asked point blank what evidence there is to suggest double masking after being vaccinated. He had nothing, but if he did I promise we'd be hearing it, just like we'd hear about reinfections.
This is not directed at OP, but geez how do people not comprehend logistical growth yet?PJYoung said:
beerad12man said:
A guy who can follow data. Am I not allowed an opinion? I forget the rules some of you arbitrarily set out sometimes. Please let me know what I'm allowed to do from this point forward. Will be anxiously awaiting your orders.
I'd argue the data out of Brazil indicates that SOME variants can bypass natural immunity on a percentage of the population. It does not appear to be an issue for the British variant, however.
How so? Is there data that suggests it's being caused by re infections?
Yes, I believe there is data both out of South Africa and Brazil that variants are causing reinfections. How severe? Is it only in people who were asymptomatic the first time? That I'm not sure we know.
What does seem clear is that no variants has escaped the vaccines. So as long as the US can keep putting 3 million shots a day in arms we should be just fine. If we hit a wall by the end of the month because no one else wants the vaccine I think this whole thing will drag out for a long time.
What does seem clear is that no variants has escaped the vaccines. So as long as the US can keep putting 3 million shots a day in arms we should be just fine. If we hit a wall by the end of the month because no one else wants the vaccine I think this whole thing will drag out for a long time.
I would need to see more I guess. but my intuition says that 95% or more of those that have had it have had it only had it once, and 95% or more of the current infections are first timers. I'm sure there are a few reinfections. It's logical to believe with hundred of millions of infections, just based on pure percentages
I'd still say overall evidence we have out there is that natural infection creates a strong immune response
Nothing is 100%, so the more shots the better. But natural immunity should still be factored in pretty strongly imho
I'd still say overall evidence we have out there is that natural infection creates a strong immune response
Nothing is 100%, so the more shots the better. But natural immunity should still be factored in pretty strongly imho
Page 67 has no charts!
I'm still tracking the Harris county metrics.
https://covid-harriscounty.hub.arcgis.com/
I look at these each day and remind myself what absolute bullsh*t it is. Trash leadership IMO.
https://covid-harriscounty.hub.arcgis.com/
I look at these each day and remind myself what absolute bullsh*t it is. Trash leadership IMO.
One of the things many (including me) had trouble with is the idea of flexible capacity in the hospitals.
These two plots show how the numbers of Covid Patients in ICU and Available ICU capacity don't align as one might presume.
These two plots show how the numbers of Covid Patients in ICU and Available ICU capacity don't align as one might presume.
Harris county has a 7 day average of 14 deaths, Dallas county 3, Collin county less than 1, Tarrant 5, Bexar 5, Travis county 1. Not exactly the death spike the "experts" were saying if we opened up.
P.U.T.U said:
Harris county has a 7 day average of 14 deaths, Dallas county 3, Collin county less than 1, Tarrant 5, Bexar 5, Travis county 1. Not exactly the death spike the "experts" were saying if we opened up.
Harris county should be yellow at least on the verge of green but it ain't happening.
Cepe said:P.U.T.U said:
Harris county has a 7 day average of 14 deaths, Dallas county 3, Collin county less than 1, Tarrant 5, Bexar 5, Travis county 1. Not exactly the death spike the "experts" were saying if we opened up.
Harris county should be yellow at least on the verge of green but it ain't happening.
Ridiculous.
Government needs to learn (Fauci, Harris County, California, looking at you) that when you continually cry wolf then the general population just stops listening to you.Cepe said:P.U.T.U said:
Harris county has a 7 day average of 14 deaths, Dallas county 3, Collin county less than 1, Tarrant 5, Bexar 5, Travis county 1. Not exactly the death spike the "experts" were saying if we opened up.
Harris county should be yellow at least on the verge of green but it ain't happening.
TMC stopped providing a daily data update as of April 11.buffalo chip said:
Page 67 has no charts!
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/
Texas Medical Center has been sharing a set of metrics to better track how Houston is doing in its fight against COVID-19. These metrics will change from daily to weekly data. We will publish all data from the week prior on Monday mornings.
Saw an article last week saying Michigan was a hot spot, but Gov Whitmer was going to have a hard time issuing another lockdown.Aston94 said:Government needs to learn (Fauci, Harris County, California, looking at you) that when you continually cry wolf then the general population just stops listening to you.Cepe said:P.U.T.U said:
Harris county has a 7 day average of 14 deaths, Dallas county 3, Collin county less than 1, Tarrant 5, Bexar 5, Travis county 1. Not exactly the death spike the "experts" were saying if we opened up.
Harris county should be yellow at least on the verge of green but it ain't happening.
Lockdown fatigue is a thing and keeping places lockdown or under restrictions for far longer than necessary is going to cause problems.
I have co workers who work in MA, and they say you can't drive a block without seeing someone in their car or walking down the street in a mask. In April. I wonder if this information will be relayed to the public, or will it even matter to most of them?
I spent last weekend in NYC and as a matter of course everyone wears a mask on the sidewalk, Central Park or the other usual places. Granted, their experience was different than here in TX, as is the density of people.
Good news is good news, but nationwide cases are up and deaths seem to have plateaued. I'm disappointed that we aren't seeing bigger effects of the vaccines yet, because I'm concerned that the rate of new shots in arms is going to slow considerably. In Florida, supply already exceeds demand.
I think it's way too early to hit the panic button in terms of stalling on vaccinations. Polls still suggest that 70% of adults are likely to get them. We are still pumping out over 3 million per day(1.7 first doses), and only around 47% of adults have one dose now. We will be at 65% within 30 days, and 70% within 45 days. Then we can really see how much it will stall out. Then I would see it start to slow down. I'd check numbers around then before starting to hit the panic button that we won't get enough vaccinated to get this at comfortable numbers. But I think that we will easily get there, and that the difference in spread at 47% versus 70%, or even 60%, of adults, will likely be significant.amercer said:
Good news is good news, but nationwide cases are up and deaths seem to have plateaued. I'm disappointed that we aren't seeing bigger effects of the vaccines yet, because I'm concerned that the rate of new shots in arms is going to slow considerably. In Florida, supply already exceeds demand.
Israel plummeted around 60% of adults, and 50% of their overall population, not 45% of adults and 37% of their overall population like we are now. I think that's what will happen here, and I see no issues getting to that mark in the next 30 days.
https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2021/03/05/growing-share-of-americans-say-they-plan-to-get-a-covid-19-vaccine-or-already-have/#:~:text=Taken%20together%2C%20about%20seven%2Din,to%20get%20vaccinated%20in%20November.
https://ktla.com/news/coronavirus/many-americans-still-hesitate-to-get-covid-19-but-reluctance-is-easing-poll-shows/
Also, I still don't know if I would classify deaths as "stalling out". At the end of the day, they have dropped from 2 weeks ago, and are down over 75% since our peak just a mere 3 months ago. I'd give it another month. If they hold steady at 750 per day in mid May, then they would have stalled out. But I could see them being closer to 500 by then. We shall see. According to the CDC, we were at 825 2 weeks ago, and now 713. The other link below shows 890 on 4/1/14, and 754 on 4/14/21.
It might be gradual and/or less than we'd like, and it's hard to say for sure with the skewed 4/7/21 day that clearly backlogged deaths, but I still see a decline.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendsdeaths
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
amercer said:
Good news is good news, but nationwide cases are up and deaths seem to have plateaued. I'm disappointed that we aren't seeing bigger effects of the vaccines yet, because I'm concerned that the rate of new shots in arms is going to slow considerably. In Florida, supply already exceeds demand.
Patience.
I called it a month ago that before May there would be a glut of vaccines because we would start running into the sector of the population that is at least ambivalent about taking the vaccine.
I think that's fair. Towards the end of May. I see it remaining strong until about half way through May. If for the sake of easy math, we assume the 70-75% article's I listed above remain correct, we stay at the 1.5mm number, we will hit 65% in exactly 30 days(122.9 million now, adding 45 million in 30 days, out of about 258 million adults). Then I think we see the gradual decrease in 1st dose demand, and can quickly catch 2nd doses up at a rate of about 2-2.5 million a day.Squadron7 said:
I called it a month ago that before May there would be a glut of vaccines because we would start running into the sector of the population that is at least ambivalent about taking the vaccine.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
What the hell are you doing bringing all these facts to the discussion?!?!?!?!beerad12man said:I think it's way too early to hit the panic button in terms of stalling on vaccinations. Polls still suggest that 70% of adults are likely to get them. We are still pumping out over 3 million per day(1.7 first doses), and only around 47% of adults have one dose now. We will be at 65% within 30 days, and 70% within 45 days. Then we can really see how much it will stall out. Then I would see it start to slow down. I'd check numbers around then before starting to hit the panic button that we won't get enough vaccinated to get this at comfortable numbers. But I think that we will easily get there, and that the difference in spread at 47% versus 70%, or even 60%, of adults, will likely be significant.amercer said:
Good news is good news, but nationwide cases are up and deaths seem to have plateaued. I'm disappointed that we aren't seeing bigger effects of the vaccines yet, because I'm concerned that the rate of new shots in arms is going to slow considerably. In Florida, supply already exceeds demand.
Israel plummeted around 60% of adults, and 50% of their overall population, not 45% of adults and 37% of their overall population like we are now. I think that's what will happen here, and I see no issues getting to that mark in the next 30 days.
https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2021/03/05/growing-share-of-americans-say-they-plan-to-get-a-covid-19-vaccine-or-already-have/#:~:text=Taken%20together%2C%20about%20seven%2Din,to%20get%20vaccinated%20in%20November.
https://ktla.com/news/coronavirus/many-americans-still-hesitate-to-get-covid-19-but-reluctance-is-easing-poll-shows/
Also, I still don't know if I would classify deaths as "stalling out". At the end of the day, they have dropped from 2 weeks ago, and are down over 75% since our peak just a mere 3 months ago. I'd give it another month. If they hold steady at 750 per day in mid May, then they would have stalled out. But I could see them being closer to 500 by then. We shall see. According to the CDC, we were at 825 2 weeks ago, and now 713. The other link below shows 890 on 4/1/14, and 754 on 4/14/21.
It might be gradual and/or less than we'd like, and it's hard to say for sure with the skewed 4/7/21 day that clearly backlogged deaths, but I still see a decline.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendsdeaths
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
BeerAd12man has been doing good work here
Too much downtime at work currently
I suspect the success of the vaccination campaign in regards to reducing deaths is dependent on the uptake of various age groups. Vaccinating 80% of students doesn't buy the same as 80% of people 65+.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
We should actually be good on that front. Italy is in trouble because they did way more young people earlier with a very limited supply.
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