Things were pretty relaxed when we went to Colorado last august. Estes park and Allenspark area.
Going back again in may.
Going back again in may.
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Last: 2 yr ago by AggieUSMC
TexasAggie008 said:
someone chime in if i'm dead wrong here - but Colorado seems to have quietly been one of the more fair and reasonable "blue states" when it comes to covid rules/reopenings/bs
i've been 3 times since August and each time things seemed about as "open" as Texas at that time.....but to be fair - all 3 were to smaller towns, as opposed to Denver metro
Part of it is pressure from red counties, but fact is sun, altitude, and very dry air severely limits the spread of covid. And healthy people limit hospitalization and death.
But for a state that's turning blue they do seem to be driven by actual science.
Quote:
Today's hospitalization number (182) is the lowest since June 14, 2020, which was more than nine months ago. The lowest hospitalizations ever reached after the summer 2020 surge was on Oct. 12, when they got down to 184 before starting to climb again.
https://www.kens5.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-updates-san-antonio-texas-march-23-2021/273-d052b161-964d-4680-a3a5-29f94dabe7ef
AgsMyDude said:Quote:
Today's hospitalization number (182) is the lowest since June 14, 2020, which was more than nine months ago. The lowest hospitalizations ever reached after the summer 2020 surge was on Oct. 12, when they got down to 184 before starting to climb again.
https://www.kens5.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-updates-san-antonio-texas-march-23-2021/273-d052b161-964d-4680-a3a5-29f94dabe7ef
But but the variants !
Like this chart
I apologize if this has been posted somewhere else on the forums.....
One of the questions that researchers will attempt to answer going forward is "from what part of the population did 'excess deaths' arise due to Covid?". For instance, imagine you had a population of 1M people and you estimate there were 5000 'excess deaths' last year. People only die once so the pattern of deaths going forward will be different than you would have expected without the 'excess deaths.'
The 'death deficit' will be distributed based on from what part of the population you 'pulled forward' the deaths. For example if the 'excess deaths' were totally random in the population you would expect to see the 'death deficit' show up as a constant shift downward in the death rate. OTOH, if all the people that died were very ill people that were going to die inside the next two years, then the "death deficit" would be reflected and made up over a comparable short period of time.
Here is the first evidence of "death deficit" data starting to show up that I have seen. It is too short a period to draw any conclusions from. This type data will be noisy because deaths due to Covid are ongoing. However, it will be interesting to watch. Based on some of the responses I saw on twitter to this it will be a contentious, emotional topic.
from
https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/coronavirus--covid-19--deaths
And an obvious potential issue is that the population of London isn't constant. If people have fled London and are dying elsewhere it might look like this.
One of the questions that researchers will attempt to answer going forward is "from what part of the population did 'excess deaths' arise due to Covid?". For instance, imagine you had a population of 1M people and you estimate there were 5000 'excess deaths' last year. People only die once so the pattern of deaths going forward will be different than you would have expected without the 'excess deaths.'
The 'death deficit' will be distributed based on from what part of the population you 'pulled forward' the deaths. For example if the 'excess deaths' were totally random in the population you would expect to see the 'death deficit' show up as a constant shift downward in the death rate. OTOH, if all the people that died were very ill people that were going to die inside the next two years, then the "death deficit" would be reflected and made up over a comparable short period of time.
Here is the first evidence of "death deficit" data starting to show up that I have seen. It is too short a period to draw any conclusions from. This type data will be noisy because deaths due to Covid are ongoing. However, it will be interesting to watch. Based on some of the responses I saw on twitter to this it will be a contentious, emotional topic.
from
https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/coronavirus--covid-19--deaths
And an obvious potential issue is that the population of London isn't constant. If people have fled London and are dying elsewhere it might look like this.
The data is slow to arrive, but usmortality.com is excellent. The developer that has put it together has done really solid work.
TX covid hospitalizations below 3K for first time since June 8th
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83
Cases. Suggests the elderly are not currently infected. Vaccines and likely more measured approach in protecting themselves.
sorry, it didn't post as a graph. Under demographics, it shows
AGE: Cases
1-9 1290
10-19 3,501
20-29 15,292
30-39 16,883
40-40 14,783
50-59 12,408
60-69 7,469
70-79 2,958
80+ 1,846
Cases. Suggests the elderly are not currently infected. Vaccines and likely more measured approach in protecting themselves.
sorry, it didn't post as a graph. Under demographics, it shows
AGE: Cases
1-9 1290
10-19 3,501
20-29 15,292
30-39 16,883
40-40 14,783
50-59 12,408
60-69 7,469
70-79 2,958
80+ 1,846
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f
Antigen positivity rate at 2.65%. The lowest we've had since this began. Go to antigen tests tab.
Molecular positivity at 5.433%, the last 5 days have all been the lowest since March 12, 2020.
Antigen positivity rate at 2.65%. The lowest we've had since this began. Go to antigen tests tab.
Molecular positivity at 5.433%, the last 5 days have all been the lowest since March 12, 2020.
Latest Dallas County summary
https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/C-19-risklevelmgmt/033121-DallasCounty-COVID-19-Hospitalization-Data.pdf
As Keegan correctly reminded me above, the death data comes in slowly. Nonetheless, the trend here continues to be encouraging.
https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/C-19-risklevelmgmt/033121-DallasCounty-COVID-19-Hospitalization-Data.pdf
As Keegan correctly reminded me above, the death data comes in slowly. Nonetheless, the trend here continues to be encouraging.
Molecular positivity rate at 4.94%, which is the 2nd lowest since this started, only to a random dip on 3/12/20 over a year ago. Antigen positivity rate at 2.59%, which is the lowest since it began to be recorded 5/31/20.
Hospitalizations at 2817 statewide, which is the lowest since 6/16/20.
7 day average of deaths is 84. For reference, all cause deaths in texas are about 700-750 daily. So creeping down to that 10% mark.
Cases are 2943 7 day average, which is the lowest since 6/18/20.
Hospitalizations at 2817 statewide, which is the lowest since 6/16/20.
7 day average of deaths is 84. For reference, all cause deaths in texas are about 700-750 daily. So creeping down to that 10% mark.
Cases are 2943 7 day average, which is the lowest since 6/18/20.
Fantastic
Like the trend
Moving from crimson to brick red?
The fact 2021 has a greater excess death toll than 2020 is stat that still makes me question everything we've done. A large number of deaths have come in the last 3-4 months even though we know more and are generally better at mitigation and treatment than we were the previous 8-9 months.Quote:
2021 Reported: 868,845 deaths. Expected deaths thus far, were 745,959. Increase of 122,886 deaths (16.5%).
While overall death totals have been bad, the improved death rates during the 2020 winter seasonal surge is IMO in large part thanks to the lessons learned from the first surge. Very thankful this did not start spreading rapidly here until after the traditional respiratory virus season. Had we started surging in cases in November 2019 we likely would've seen way more death.
Look at the number of cases in 2020 from March-November, then look at December-February cases.tysker said:The fact 2021 has a greater excess death toll than 2020 is stat that still makes me question everything we've done. A large number of deaths have come in the last 3-4 months even though we know more and are generally better at mitigation and treatment than we were the previous 8-9 months.Quote:
2021 Reported: 868,845 deaths. Expected deaths thus far, were 745,959. Increase of 122,886 deaths (16.5%).
Lot more cases, much lower death rate.
Aston94 said:Look at the number of cases in 2020 from March-November, then look at December-February cases.tysker said:The fact 2021 has a greater excess death toll than 2020 is stat that still makes me question everything we've done. A large number of deaths have come in the last 3-4 months even though we know more and are generally better at mitigation and treatment than we were the previous 8-9 months.Quote:
2021 Reported: 868,845 deaths. Expected deaths thus far, were 745,959. Increase of 122,886 deaths (16.5%).
Lot more cases, much lower death rate.
Part of the March April data is skewed by having a lack of testing though. I do think we got marginally better at dealing with it medically later on, but we never really had a game changing breakthrough.
Looking good. Get that **** done!
Fitch said:
Looking good. Get that **** done!
PJYoung said:
Cool graphic. Big outlier there though is 'current pace'. I doubt 20-25% get the vaccine, could be wrong but the peek is likely 60% vaccinated here in US.
We'll never get to 90%. I think we slow down our current pace before we reach 78% by July 1st. My guess is, we are closer to 60% on July 1st. But that's okay.
We don't really need 90%, or likely even 78% for that matter. Natural immunity is strong. Israel plummeted when they reached 40-45% fully vaccinated or so. Yea, I know they were still doing some measures, but the point is when we get to 40-45% fully vaccinated(50-55% with at least a single dose), I expect everywhere to be trending down, and by 60% this to practically fizzle out. Out of the remaining 40%, the vast majority will be a handful of antivaxxers who likely have a decent percentage of natural immunity(ie, people who most likely didn't take too many precautions over the last year, so I'd say 30% of them putting us into the 70%s overall immunity), and children making up the vast majority of the rest, who, even with the B.1.1.1.7171717171 variant, aren't as susceptible to getting, spreading, or having severe disease. Our case numbers will be low at that point, and deaths/hospitalizations practically nil. IMHO. Might even happen well before 60%. But not much doubt in my mind by 60%.
We don't really need 90%, or likely even 78% for that matter. Natural immunity is strong. Israel plummeted when they reached 40-45% fully vaccinated or so. Yea, I know they were still doing some measures, but the point is when we get to 40-45% fully vaccinated(50-55% with at least a single dose), I expect everywhere to be trending down, and by 60% this to practically fizzle out. Out of the remaining 40%, the vast majority will be a handful of antivaxxers who likely have a decent percentage of natural immunity(ie, people who most likely didn't take too many precautions over the last year, so I'd say 30% of them putting us into the 70%s overall immunity), and children making up the vast majority of the rest, who, even with the B.1.1.1.7171717171 variant, aren't as susceptible to getting, spreading, or having severe disease. Our case numbers will be low at that point, and deaths/hospitalizations practically nil. IMHO. Might even happen well before 60%. But not much doubt in my mind by 60%.
60% is low for the peak, imo.riverrataggie said:PJYoung said:
Cool graphic. Big outlier there though is 'current pace'. I doubt 20-25% get the vaccine, could be wrong but the peek is likely 60% vaccinated here in US.
My guess is about 70-75% get it this year. With about 80-85% of adults. The truly anti vaxx percentage is closer to 15% according to a couple of different polls I've seen. They are loud and vocal, but not that common. There's another 15% hesitant, whereas 70% are probably going to get it or already have, but I bet most in that 15% hesitant crowd come around with more and more data over the next 3-4 months. This is for adults, but my prediction is 80% of adults by years end.
You might see 30-40% of children not get it (unless it becomes mandatory for schools). I don't see us stopping at 60%. It will get in the 70s, or at least mid to upper 60s, IMHO.
The big concern now is that the variants will nullify natural immunity from recovered cases. The vaccines seem to be effective against all variants, and since they target the spike protein it's hard to imagine a variant will overcome that anytime soon. However, natural immunity is varied and can target different parts of the virus that are less critical to its function. Therefore mutations have the ability to bypass natural immunity more easily. So one or two new variants and suddenly that 10-30% of people who have recovered don't count toward herd immunity anymore.
With the rate of vaccination, I've been telling all of my patients to make sure and be fully vaccination before July 4. I don't think politicians will be able to avoid the symbolism of opening the country 100% without restrictions on Independence Day. That's not a criticism. By that point everyone who wants a vaccine has had a chance to get one.
With the rate of vaccination, I've been telling all of my patients to make sure and be fully vaccination before July 4. I don't think politicians will be able to avoid the symbolism of opening the country 100% without restrictions on Independence Day. That's not a criticism. By that point everyone who wants a vaccine has had a chance to get one.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Meh, I consider that to be worst case and relative, when saying "big" concern. If they cover it after 16 months and nearly a billion worldwide infections, I don't think one is sprouting free at the finishing line. Natural immunity still seems to have a strong connection to all variants. I would consider the vast, vast majority of natural infections to be highly immune, even if 5-10% of natural infections might have a second one, it's usually minor and at that point, it's just a cold for most.
The variant issue has been my major reasoning when telling patients who have recovered from COVID to get the vaccine anyway. I'd rather be sure they have immunity to the spike protein. With a little luck it will be a moot point come summertime anyway, because we'll be at herd immunity and this will no longer be an issue
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
I completely agree that it's still a good idea to get it. You never know.
I just think it's a very, very low chance it will cause any kind of major problem, based on what we've seen so far. And I believe that natural immunity still is strong and should count towards overall immunity in the vast majority.
I just think it's a very, very low chance it will cause any kind of major problem, based on what we've seen so far. And I believe that natural immunity still is strong and should count towards overall immunity in the vast majority.
Are you a medical professional or beer ad man ?
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