That tells you that screening procedures and test availability are not even close to uniform across regions and time periods, and comparisons of "case counts" across regions and time periods are rubbish.
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Last: 2 yr ago by AggieUSMC
HUGE difference in deaths. Very good information.
Interesting that, in Italy, Daily New Cases peak and Daily Deaths Peak occurred approximately 5-7 days apart, not with a "lag" of two weeks as would be expected. Maybe early on, patients died more quickly in Italy because no one knew how to treat it?
If, and the this biggest if, the Texas Death rate doesn't spike in the next 10 days....
Then it's a VERY good sign for what's to come.
Then it's a VERY good sign for what's to come.
It seems like we are going through what Louisiana went through post Mardi Gras.
Large crowds crammed together in bars and what not.
How long did it take them to come down off their spike? That's where I am at now, just wondering how long until we start seeing a decline in new daily cases.
Large crowds crammed together in bars and what not.
How long did it take them to come down off their spike? That's where I am at now, just wondering how long until we start seeing a decline in new daily cases.
Let's hope so. I do wonder if our death spike will be a bit more delayed as the rate of infection amongst the younger demographic is what's currently increasing dramatically but will soon spread will spread to parents followed by grandparents who are most vulnerable and have been diligently staying home?
I see A LOT of opinions about how much of the US population has had Covid.
Has anyone seen random pop studies on what the actual % is?
Has anyone seen random pop studies on what the actual % is?
goodAg80 said:
I see A LOT of opinions about how much of the US population has had Covid.
Has anyone seen could random pop studies on what the actual % is?
If we assume a high end death rate of 1%, then that means roughly 12 million people or 3% of the population. That's probably to simplified, but maybe not that far off.
I don't even think we know if Antibody testing is a good way of measuring this. It seems at least some number of people who tested PCR positive, and thus had COVID, test negative for antibodies a month later.goodAg80 said:
I see A LOT of opinions about how much of the US population has had Covid.
Has anyone seen could random pop studies on what the actual % is?
And we KNOW PCR test results are not a good way to measure how many have had it because many (most?) people do not have symptoms or have mild symptoms and never get tested. That is changing some now, with wider availability of testing, more employer testing, etc.
Hopefully the elderly will continue to stay home and self isolate a bit longer through this spike and mitigate that; however, I think you will see an uptick b/c of the increased "confidence" of people lately to go out (of almost all ages).
I'll agree with you that raw case counts aren't the best metric, but the focus here is on trend.Keegan99 said:
That tells you that screening procedures and test availability are not even close to uniform across regions and time periods, and comparisons of "case counts" across regions and time periods are rubbish.
True, test reporting in Texas is going to be different than New Jersey, and a test given in either place on April 1 is going to be quite different than a test given in either place on June 15.
But a test given in TX on June 1 is going to be relatively similar to a test in TX on June 15. So conceptually, if a state's own numbers keep rising over relatively short periods of time, that does tell you something valid about the trend that's currently occurring. Again, you can't really compare it fully to Mar/April, but it does tell you something about what's happening right now.
The fact that Texas has quadrupled in new cases per day since April is possibly misleading. The fact that Texas has tripled in new cases per day since June 1 points to a clear, current trend.
To address Keegan's rightful concern about how these case-over-time graphs are misleading when drawing conclusions about "Texas being worse than the peak of Italy", the best way to graphically demonstrate an accurate answer is actually through modeling.
https://covid19-projections.com/ does a great job of forecasting, showing uncertainty, and has been rated in the top 5 models in actual forecasting performance by the people who have measured the accuracy of these models over time.
They show the numbers for Active Cases, New Cases, R_T assumptions that go into their numbers. They account for the changes in behavior, decreases in mortality over time, etc.
As you can see, Italy's real peak was something on the magnitude of 125,000 new cases per day:
Therefore, Texas's new case level of <10,000 is a drop in the bucket.
That being said, Italy used a lockdown to reverse their positive growing trend. What will Texas do? Hopefully greater adoption of mask wearing will do the trick.
https://covid19-projections.com/ does a great job of forecasting, showing uncertainty, and has been rated in the top 5 models in actual forecasting performance by the people who have measured the accuracy of these models over time.
They show the numbers for Active Cases, New Cases, R_T assumptions that go into their numbers. They account for the changes in behavior, decreases in mortality over time, etc.
As you can see, Italy's real peak was something on the magnitude of 125,000 new cases per day:
Therefore, Texas's new case level of <10,000 is a drop in the bucket.
That being said, Italy used a lockdown to reverse their positive growing trend. What will Texas do? Hopefully greater adoption of mask wearing will do the trick.
aginlakeway said:
HUGE difference in deaths. Very good information.
Agree, it's pretty interesting to look at. Obviously there's a discrepancy in the data policies, etc. But either way fascinating IMO.
RandyAg98 said:
Interesting that, in Italy, Daily New Cases peak and Daily Deaths Peak occurred approximately 5-7 days apart, not with a "lag" of two weeks as would be expected. Maybe early on, patients died more quickly in Italy because no one knew how to treat it?
Probably has a lot to do with it. There's still a TON to learn but education has come a long way since Italy got hit.
goodAg80 said:
I see A LOT of opinions about how much of the US population has had Covid.
Has anyone seen random pop studies on what the actual % is?
CDC officials estimated up to 23-24 million last night. From Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-cases/coronavirus-may-have-infected-10-times-more-americans-than-reported-cdc-says-idUSKBN23W2PU
Thanks.DTP02 said:goodAg80 said:
I see A LOT of opinions about how much of the US population has had Covid.
Has anyone seen random pop studies on what the actual % is?
CDC officials estimated up to 23-24 million last night. From Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-cases/coronavirus-may-have-infected-10-times-more-americans-than-reported-cdc-says-idUSKBN23W2PU
Let's say it is 33 million. That is 10% of the US.
About 120,000 have died. Probably many of these are more vulnerable, but if everyone would get this that would imply 1.2 million (120K x 10) will die from CoVid.
Many people will argue that the CDC estimate is wrong. The country needs to know the real number. Our opinions are useless in the face of reality.
so that would imply a 0.3% fatality rate?
maybe we should make a list of causes of death that exceed 1.2 Million per year and see what kind of precautions are taken.
maybe we should make a list of causes of death that exceed 1.2 Million per year and see what kind of precautions are taken.
https://covid19-projections.com/
That model predicts 12.4MM to 20.4MM total infected in the US. Basically a 1% to 0.5% IFR, which you see commonly discussed.
That model predicts 12.4MM to 20.4MM total infected in the US. Basically a 1% to 0.5% IFR, which you see commonly discussed.
edit - wrong thread.
Ok. Here's your list:Aggie95 said:
so that would imply a 0.3% fatality rate?
maybe we should make a list of causes of death that exceed 1.2 Million per year and see what kind of precautions are taken.
COVID 19 - 1.2 Million (Aggie95 projection)
... nothing else in the US comes close ...
Heart disease kills ~650,000
Cancer is a close 2nd with ~600,000
All accidents (including car accidents) are a distant 3rd at ~160,000
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db328_tables-508.pdf#4
For these three, the government does step in heavily to try to mitigate loss of life for #3 (Seatbelts, DWI, mandatory licensing/certification, OSHA laws, etc). It's a lot harder to pin down singular causes for the other two, but when they're identified (e.g. asbestos) the government steps in there too and regulates those causes to either restrict use, or at the very least inform of the risk.
I don't understand the point of these comparisons. Not everyone is going to get this. If everyone got heart disease, there would be millions of deaths, but that doesn't happen.
Right. I could be wrong but i have to assume even if we get a vaccine in early 2021 there is a strong likelihood of less than 100% infection rate...i would probably be suprised if its 75% becuase of the measures that will continue to be taken over the next 6 - 12 months...
State-wide
Metros
Hospitalizations
Metros
Hospitalizations
Houston Area
Dallas-Fort Worth
I-35 Corridor
Border Counties
Panhandle
Brazos Valley
Dallas-Fort Worth
I-35 Corridor
Border Counties
Panhandle
Brazos Valley
Am I reading this right? 1 percent drop each day?
The bars are the number of tests run, line is hit rate.
wessimo said:
The bars are the number of tests run, line is hit rate.
So 20% of the 7k tested were positive?
I might have missed it somewhere in the thread, but does anybody have a chart showing the deaths per day by actual date of death and not date that it was reported? For the last week when harris county has reported daily deaths at least half of the deaths actually took place in April or May and are just now being officially reported.
I have seen Dallas County report deaths by day of death.
Look at pg 9 here:
https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/C-19-risklevelmgmt/062520-DallasCounty-COVID-19-Hospitalization-Data.pdf
or pg 10 here
https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/C-19-risklevelmgmt/062620-DallasCounty-COVID-19-Hospitalization-Data.pdf
Note they say the average delay is 4.3 days with a range of 0-52 days.
As people have pointed out the county reporting does not necessarily flow quickly into the state or CDC reporting systems.
Look at pg 9 here:
https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/C-19-risklevelmgmt/062520-DallasCounty-COVID-19-Hospitalization-Data.pdf
or pg 10 here
https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/C-19-risklevelmgmt/062620-DallasCounty-COVID-19-Hospitalization-Data.pdf
Note they say the average delay is 4.3 days with a range of 0-52 days.
As people have pointed out the county reporting does not necessarily flow quickly into the state or CDC reporting systems.
Why has TMC stopped updating / removed their ICU charts and data?
TMC added a statement:
Yesterday, the TMC posted an incomplete slide deck in order to allow time to fully develop a number of new slides. The new slides as well as a number of updated slides that were absent yesterday will be released later today. Collectively, they will provide a more comprehensive and accurate description of the current status.
Yesterday, the TMC posted an incomplete slide deck in order to allow time to fully develop a number of new slides. The new slides as well as a number of updated slides that were absent yesterday will be released later today. Collectively, they will provide a more comprehensive and accurate description of the current status.
plain_o_llama said:
TMC added a statement:
Yesterday, the TMC posted an incomplete slide deck in order to allow time to fully develop a number of new slides. The new slides as well as a number of updated slides that were absent yesterday will be released later today. Collectively, they will provide a more comprehensive and accurate description of the current status.
Aha, I missed that, thank you.
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