I am one of the people who hate the cases over time graphs, as many of you do, because the % of cases detected over time is going up. I have concluded that the best way to unravel this dillemma was just to make my own damn graph, using model data from covid19-projections.com, who does his best to unravel and show what the past infections were with the knowledge we have today. His data is all open sourced and his projections have graded very highly among those who have graded these things.
In this graph, I compared Western Europe to the USA, because the populations and geographical diversity are more apples to apples comparisons, versus comparing USA to UK only. The stacking is sorted by population, largest populated countries at the bottom.
The primary conclusions should have been already fairly obvious:
- No, the current infection level is not worse than the US/European peaks, despite what raw case numbers state.
- The recent uptick does differentiate us from those states. However, if we split the US between northern states and southern states, I bet you would find that Northern States shape would mirror Western Europe while Southern States would mirror Latin America/India.
Also, the stacked graph visualization is quite interesting to see how the virus transferred from country to country.
I did deaths also, since all the data was right there: