Definitely looks like yesterday was aberration.
Daily Charts
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Last: 2 yr ago by AggieUSMC
Infection data:
Deaths
Hospitalization Data
Positive/Negative/Pending Tests Take 3
CFR
Note: I'm using the following to calculate CFR: Today's Number Deaths/# Confirmed Infections 7 Days ago
Deaths
Hospitalization Data
Positive/Negative/Pending Tests Take 3
CFR
Note: I'm using the following to calculate CFR: Today's Number Deaths/# Confirmed Infections 7 Days ago
Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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AG
Update your arrow in the infections graph, other than that, great work.
You may have already touched on this but I didn't see it...
Do you have any guesses on why it seems like the total cases are being overestimated while the total deaths are being underestimated?
Do you have any guesses on why it seems like the total cases are being overestimated while the total deaths are being underestimated?
Italy has indeed flattened the curve on new infections
Did we flatten the curve too much?
That's a very tiny percentage of the population that has been infected. As we slowly return to normal, it's inevitable that this will spread again.
We can't hide forever.
How does this math not start over in 6 weeks?
That's a very tiny percentage of the population that has been infected. As we slowly return to normal, it's inevitable that this will spread again.
We can't hide forever.
How does this math not start over in 6 weeks?
jefe95 said:
Did we flatten the curve too much?
That's a very tiny percentage of the population that has been infected. As we slowly return to normal, it's inevitable that this will spread again.
We can't hide forever.
How does this math not start over in 6 weeks?
Even if we've pushed the curve further out it's beneficial because it allows for more time... preparation, testing, new research in effective treatments, etc...
We are making daily progress on multiple fronts:
1) PPE production
2) ICU capacity
3) COVID testing (speed and reliability)
4) antibody testing (for epidemiology modeling and eventually for workforce improvements)
5) evidence based trials of treatments, like HQC
6) vaccine development
We cannot stay shut down for much longer (the cost is far too high) but there were absolutely benefits to buying ourselves some time
Each person will have their own opinions on how the costs and benefits were weighedP
1) PPE production
2) ICU capacity
3) COVID testing (speed and reliability)
4) antibody testing (for epidemiology modeling and eventually for workforce improvements)
5) evidence based trials of treatments, like HQC
6) vaccine development
We cannot stay shut down for much longer (the cost is far too high) but there were absolutely benefits to buying ourselves some time
Each person will have their own opinions on how the costs and benefits were weighedP
No doubt. I was skeptical at first about the lockdown approach, cancellation of events, etc. We definitely bought time. Just hope the plan isn't to hide for ever.
We haven't flattened anything at this point.jefe95 said:
Did we flatten the curve too much?
That's a very tiny percentage of the population that has been infected. As we slowly return to normal, it's inevitable that this will spread again.
We can't hide forever.
How does this math not start over in 6 weeks?
The amount of people confirmed infected has tripled in the past week (less than 55k to over 155k).
There has been a little leveling off on amount of daily cases, but I suspect that has more to do with the logistics of testing than it does actually being less people infected.
Yup. It's all just testing capacity at this point. Yesterday we barely tested more people than on Friday and Saturday. We don't have a handle on how fast this is spreading due to limited availability of tests. Deaths is the only thing we can really watch at this point, and those might be bending over, which is a good sign, but it's still early days.bangobango said:We haven't flattened anything at this point.jefe95 said:
Did we flatten the curve too much?
That's a very tiny percentage of the population that has been infected. As we slowly return to normal, it's inevitable that this will spread again.
We can't hide forever.
How does this math not start over in 6 weeks?
The amount of people confirmed infected has tripled in the past week (less than 55k to over 155k).
There has been a little leveling off on amount of daily cases, but I suspect that has more to do with the logistics of testing than it does actually being less people infected.
Just a feeling, but if we were all out working, eating out, going to concerts, working out, shopping, etc, we would have 10 fold the infections. Knock on wood I do not have it - we have been very cautious but not complete shut ins, with trips to HEB, Costco, and some fast food pickups and other food takeouts. However, very cautious with hands, faces, hand sanitizers, wipes, and not taking the kids in because they are not controllable.
Yes our current numbers are a direct function of our limited testing capability. There is no doubt our social distancing is helping slow down the growth and buy us time.
Look at Spain, anything short of a severe national lock down (i.e. food and drug trips only enforced by police stopping cars) is not going to stop this thing this spring.
But that's ok, we just need more time to produce PPE, ramp up testing and develop viral remedies.
Look at Spain, anything short of a severe national lock down (i.e. food and drug trips only enforced by police stopping cars) is not going to stop this thing this spring.
But that's ok, we just need more time to produce PPE, ramp up testing and develop viral remedies.
Guess I was thinking optimistically that after 3 weeks of greatly curtailed activities we were almost out of the woods.
But we have barely stepped into the forest.
But we have barely stepped into the forest.
garrettc16 said:
You may have already touched on this but I didn't see it...
Do you have any guesses on why it seems like the total cases are being overestimated while the total deaths are being underestimated?
There's also a lag in deaths vs infected, which is why I'm comparing the death rate to the number of infected 7 days before. Still probably not exactly right, but feels more accurate.
Your app is 500ing right now.GrapevineAg said:
So I built a simple COVID Charts App, play around with it if you like.
Yeah, it's not just my app, it's all of Oracle's Apex site. 
Good graph tweeted out by Scott Gottleib.
Shaun Shaikh '07
FYI, Oracle fixed their issue and it's up again.
https://apex.oracle.com/pls/apex/f?p=GA_COVID19:GLOBAL
https://apex.oracle.com/pls/apex/f?p=GA_COVID19:GLOBAL
HotardAg07 said:
Good graph tweeted out by Scott Gottleib.
Not surprised that the Dept of Motor Vehicles is up there. That place is ****hole.
BANA89
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John Burn-Murdoch released a new graph today that I think is a better way to visualize the virus spread. Since he's graphing the daily change, you can see the peaks, down trends more clearly rather than the flattening you would see in a logarithmic or linear graph of cumulative cases.
Shaun Shaikh '07
One of these is not like the others...
Mike Shaw - Class of '03
Correction. China and Wuhan are almost identical. How perfect.
Total Chinese deaths and those in Wuhan are almost identical, implying that they competely contained the outbreak to one city. It's insulting that they expect us believe that, and foolish for us to even post their fake data with ours.
Total Chinese deaths and those in Wuhan are almost identical, implying that they competely contained the outbreak to one city. It's insulting that they expect us believe that, and foolish for us to even post their fake data with ours.
Mike Shaw - Class of '03
Infection data:
Deaths
Hospitalization Data
Positive/Negative/Pending Tests
CFR
Note: I'm using the following to calculate CFR: Today's Number Deaths/# Confirmed Infections 7 Days ago
Deaths
Hospitalization Data
Positive/Negative/Pending Tests
CFR
Note: I'm using the following to calculate CFR: Today's Number Deaths/# Confirmed Infections 7 Days ago
I like your first chart, but the second isn't very comforting.
Remember, deaths lag infections by about two weeks.
Stupe said:
All of this happening because China didn't want to admit that they had an issue.
I seem to recall our own government saying it wasn't a problem less than a month ago.
Good point.
It's a little easier to understand given they were working with flawed data from China and WHO...pv said:Stupe said:
All of this happening because China didn't want to admit that they had an issue.
I seem to recall our own government saying it wasn't a problem less than a month ago.
When did we start trusting China?
When we helped make them the world's largest manufacturer of most consumer productspv said:
When did we start trusting China?
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