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Last: 2 yr ago by AggieUSMC
The model that Birx showed back in March has held up decently well, actually
It looks like this model is following the Weibull distribution.HotardAg07 said:
The model that Birx showed back in March has held up decently well, actually
Can do
Replaced Washington with Pennsylvania today since WA seems to be under control.
Is the IHME model/site usually 2+ days behind? Says it was last updated 4/13.
They are now updating once every three days
Amen. And what is weird is the posters here have created the exact same climate they say they claim to hate on Forum 16.Old Buffalo said:
Be careful. Can't disagree with anyone on this board.
All opposing views must be posted to F16.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Question - at what point does comparing the new daily numbers to the 3/26 projection line become a less valid comparison? No pandemic ever follows that sustained growth for too long, they will always bend, regardless of interventions. When do you plan to update that projection line to a more recent or upcoming date?Philip J Fry said:
I aleady have a new trendline for both.
But if you don't see the value in seeing we would have hit 90K dead yesterday if it weren't for the lockdown, I'm not sure what to say.
But if you don't see the value in seeing we would have hit 90K dead yesterday if it weren't for the lockdown, I'm not sure what to say.
No, I see the value in it. I was just curious as to how often you plan to update that projection line.Philip J Fry said:
I aleady have a new trendline for both.
But if you don't see the value in seeing we would have hit 90K dead yesterday if it weren't for the lockdown, I'm not sure what to say.
Buddy of mine that is a programmer built this doohickey.
http://desanalytics.azurewebsites.net/covid19
http://desanalytics.azurewebsites.net/covid19
7nine
I would hope the case is you can't post a statement that is just an opinion, with no facts to back it up, without getting questioned on here. I haven't seen any posts where someone posted a fact, supported by data, and got attacked. The data may be questioned.dermdoc said:Amen. And what is weird is the posters here have created the exact same climate they say they claim to hate on Forum 16.Old Buffalo said:
Be careful. Can't disagree with anyone on this board.
All opposing views must be posted to F16.
Fair enough.Complete Idiot said:I would hope the case is you can't post a statement that is just an opinion, with no facts to back it up, without getting questioned on here. I haven't seen any posts where someone posted a fact, supported by data, and got attacked. The data may be questioned.dermdoc said:Amen. And what is weird is the posters here have created the exact same climate they say they claim to hate on Forum 16.Old Buffalo said:
Be careful. Can't disagree with anyone on this board.
All opposing views must be posted to F16.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
You should add Belgium to that. It's getting pretty bad there.PJYoung said:
7nine
good chart.
Do you have one like that for deaths by covid per 1 million people?
Do you have one like that for deaths by covid per 1 million people?
There is mostly speculation as this pandemic is fluid. Most peoples "facts" can be debated.
Texaggie7nine said:You should add Belgium to that. It's getting pretty bad there.PJYoung said:
The point of comparing Sweden to those other countries is that Denmark, Finland and Norway are their neighbors. Sweden hasn't gone to a hard lock down and the other countries have.
I get that, but what accounts for higher fatality rate? Is it being exposed for longer periods of time?PJYoung said:Texaggie7nine said:You should add Belgium to that. It's getting pretty bad there.PJYoung said:
The point of comparing Sweden to those other countries is that Denmark, Finland and Norway are their neighbors. Sweden hasn't gone to a hard lock down and the other countries have.
7nine
None of these short-term charts are meaningful. When Sweden has herd immunity and the others don't they should start to level out - the only main difference being Sweden didn't savagely wreck their economy along the way.PJYoung said:Texaggie7nine said:You should add Belgium to that. It's getting pretty bad there.PJYoung said:
The point of comparing Sweden to those other countries is that Denmark, Finland and Norway are their neighbors. Sweden hasn't gone to a hard lock down and the other countries have.
Plenty of things produce different fatality rates, including the number of tests that were done. If Sweden isn't testing as much they could easily have many more people with Corona making that chart meaningless.Texaggie7nine said:I get that, but what accounts for higher fatality rate? Is it being exposed for longer periods of time?PJYoung said:Texaggie7nine said:You should add Belgium to that. It's getting pretty bad there.PJYoung said:
The point of comparing Sweden to those other countries is that Denmark, Finland and Norway are their neighbors. Sweden hasn't gone to a hard lock down and the other countries have.
The main argument for one country having a higher fatality rate than another could only be made if their hospital systems are being overwhelmed. I haven't heard that is the case for Sweden?
I would think if it was the case that Sweden had way more infected then, since the percentage of people who need hospitalization, is pretty similar, there would be way more people in hospitals and in ICUs in sweden than the other countries. Is there data out there to see if that is the case?Premium said:Plenty of things produce different fatality rates, including the number of tests that were done. If Sweden isn't testing as much they could easily have many more people with Corona making that chart meaningless.Texaggie7nine said:I get that, but what accounts for higher fatality rate? Is it being exposed for longer periods of time?PJYoung said:Texaggie7nine said:You should add Belgium to that. It's getting pretty bad there.PJYoung said:
The point of comparing Sweden to those other countries is that Denmark, Finland and Norway are their neighbors. Sweden hasn't gone to a hard lock down and the other countries have.
The main argument for one country having a higher fatality rate than another could only be made if their hospital systems are being overwhelmed. I haven't heard that is the case for Sweden?
7nine
I think one of the key things will be to see how their approach affects their economy.
DadHammer said:
good chart.
Do you have one like that for deaths by covid per 1 million people?
You can go to this link and select the countries you'd like to see: https://apex.oracle.com/pls/apex/f?p=ga_covid19:global
Interesting about Belgium
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8222647/Nursing-homes-account-HALF-coronavirus-deaths-Belgium-lockdown-extended-May.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8222647/Nursing-homes-account-HALF-coronavirus-deaths-Belgium-lockdown-extended-May.html
Quote:
Belgium has so far reported 33,573 confirmed cases including 4,440 deaths.
Of these total fatalities, 46 per cent were in nursing homes, the latest data showed.
It comes as the the country's stay-at-home order was extended until at least May 3.
Belgium is one of few countries in Europe that includes in its daily tally of coronavirus-related deaths all non-hospitalised people who displayed symptoms of the disease even if they had not been confirmed as having had it.
That may help to explain why Belgium, a small country of about 11.5 million people, now has the fifth highest coronavirus death toll in Europe, ahead of more populous nations like Germany and the Netherlands.
Highlighting fears that many other nations may be under-reporting deaths, Britain released data on Tuesday suggesting its true death toll is probably much higher than government figures, which only record hospital fatalities.
With an overall mortality rate of around 12 per cent, Belgium would be the hardest-hit small country in Europe, according to data.
A veteran Belgian politician, Didier Reynders, described the number of nursing home deaths as worrying.
Other countries may well be in a similar situation but it is simply not reflected in their statistics.
In the Netherlands, for example, a large number of coronavirus deaths might not have been reported as such because of under-testing in nursing homes.
Italy, with the second highest death toll in the world after the United States, only started testing in nursing homes last week.
France includes nursing home deaths in its official tally of fatalities but they need first to have been tested and confirmed as having had COVID-19, the disease caused by coronavirus.
The same is true of Spain, meaning that those dying at home or in nursing homes with related symptoms - but untested - are not included in official figures.
7nine
Nursing homes are a huge concern, see this info about one in Virginia:
Concerns about the coronavirus pandemic in long-term care facilities have focused primarily on Canterbury Rehabilitation & Healthcare Center in western Henrico, which has had 45 deaths from COVID-19, and more than 80 residents and 35 employees confirmed with the disease.
Early on the home in Washington had 43 deaths in the facility - if it gets in one of those places, and the number of these facilities is larger than most realize - it is really bad news for the residents. My wife works 98% with people over age 60 and 90% with residents of these homes, her work has nearly evaporated and I fear she could lose her job ultimately. RIght now - they won't let many, if any, people in the homes to keep the residents safe from the virus. Long term, short of a vaccine, the facts suggest the virus will make it's way there and reduce the population by 10%? 20%? Some really bad numbers for people of this age, many who have issues.
Yes - all are elderly. Many have issues they are already dealing with. But years, perhaps a decade or more, of lost life expectancy for many of these folks.
Concerns about the coronavirus pandemic in long-term care facilities have focused primarily on Canterbury Rehabilitation & Healthcare Center in western Henrico, which has had 45 deaths from COVID-19, and more than 80 residents and 35 employees confirmed with the disease.
Early on the home in Washington had 43 deaths in the facility - if it gets in one of those places, and the number of these facilities is larger than most realize - it is really bad news for the residents. My wife works 98% with people over age 60 and 90% with residents of these homes, her work has nearly evaporated and I fear she could lose her job ultimately. RIght now - they won't let many, if any, people in the homes to keep the residents safe from the virus. Long term, short of a vaccine, the facts suggest the virus will make it's way there and reduce the population by 10%? 20%? Some really bad numbers for people of this age, many who have issues.
Yes - all are elderly. Many have issues they are already dealing with. But years, perhaps a decade or more, of lost life expectancy for many of these folks.
Cities, states, counties - all the same, there are a lot of folks worried about being accused of overreacting should the final death count remain anywhere near as low as it is today.
At 33k in the US so far, we aren't even beyond the halfway mark of a bad flu year yet.
This is the underlying reason you see several taking points being emphasized right now
- "It's only low BECAUSE our actions saved you"
- "It's going to come back"
- "all these dead people in nursing homes, which are not higher than normal levels, we're pretty sure they died of COVID actually
I'm not saying their message has no merit, but it's pretty obvious why they are pushing it
At 33k in the US so far, we aren't even beyond the halfway mark of a bad flu year yet.
This is the underlying reason you see several taking points being emphasized right now
- "It's only low BECAUSE our actions saved you"
- "It's going to come back"
- "all these dead people in nursing homes, which are not higher than normal levels, we're pretty sure they died of COVID actually
I'm not saying their message has no merit, but it's pretty obvious why they are pushing it
Wonder how it passes around nursing homes so fast. Is it from the workers that pass it on? Or is it just going through the air from resident to resident.
7nine
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My wife's grandfather (Class of 33) was in assisted living for about 3 years. Just remembering back, residents do move around a good amount, staff rotates a lot, comingled dining halls. Lots of pathways and imagine telling the mobile ones "you have to stay in your room". Hell, Grandfather needed his driver's license taken away from him because he was becoming a danger and he was pissed about that for months and months.Texaggie7nine said:
Wonder how it passes around nursing homes so fast. Is it from the workers that pass it on? Or is it just going through the air from resident to resident.
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