Hopefully never
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Last: 2 yr ago by AggieUSMC
Agree 100%.
Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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True facism. I've made my list and will make those pay who have pushed this travesty.Philip J Fry said:
Golf courses closed? What in the heck man. Golf is the most spread out sport I've ever seen.
So if it is an average of 5 days from exposure to symptoms and an average of 14 days from symptoms to death, then the death rate today is reflective of the exposure rate around 19 days ago, or March 24th - 5 days after the governor's first executive order but still a week before ordering everything closed down.KidDoc said:Death is roughly 14 days from first symptoms but has a large variance. Likely 10-30 days.Section327Ag said:
Of the countries charted here, Portugal has the most impressive 'bend' in their curve. U.S. is probably 50% of where the trend line was headed 3 weeks ago. Although I've seen data on the average incubation period of 5 days from exposure to symptoms, I haven't seen the data on the average time between exposure and death so it isn't clear to me what the lag time is between exposure rate (impacted by social distancing and hygiene) and death rate (impacted by exposure rate and treatment efficacy) .
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San Antonio went SIP on the 24th.
Throw in tennis courts too, ridiculous.Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:True facism. I've made my list and will make those pay who have pushed this travesty.Philip J Fry said:
Golf courses closed? What in the heck man. Golf is the most spread out sport I've ever seen.
It gets more complicated than that. I'm only posting confirmed cases, but I'm not going through the rigor of looking up when the tests were taken. There was a time when a significant portion of the tests were in pending.HouAggie2007 said:
Fry it would be interesting to see when each state went into lockdown, it's weird to me that they all follow the same line
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Are you not posting Sunday numbers because they might have some issues?
I miss the updates.
I miss the updates.
I've been graphing the daily deaths against the IHME model that Birx showed on the press conference a while ago, just to compare the data against a single point in time.
Surprised how well it's held up. Does seem like there's some weekend dips that catch back up on mid week reporting.
Here's one of my charts for the USA as a whole. The data is from this morning (i.e. yesterday's counts).
Interesting data in here - not sure where to post but didn't seem to need it's own thread. Just data without comment: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-Death-Counts-for-Coronavirus-Disease-C/hc4f-j6nb/data
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yeah, that's was what I was implying, several times that monday data seemed a little sketchy.HotardAg07 said:
I've been graphing the daily deaths against the IHME model that Birx showed on the press conference a while ago, just to compare the data against a single point in time.
Surprised how well it's held up. Does seem like there's some weekend dips that catch back up on mid week reporting.
That's excellent since hospitalizations now is likely a good indicator of future deaths, which lag. It also means most hospitals, except maybe in some really hot spots, will not be overwhelmed.
Germany & SK need to give some lessons on how to deal with novel pandemics.PJYoung said:
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
So I just made this chart for myself but after seeing it, figured some of y'all might like it too. I took the confirmed case and confirmed death numbers starting at the point we had 100 confirmed cases and started calculating a rolling R0 value using just the 1 week change in numbers. I ran it for 3 different infections time periods "ti". One of the most interesting things to me is from this look you can really see the US lockdown efforts start to pay off just 6 days after we began those efforts in the confirmed case numbers, and 11 in the death numbers. also interesting is that each of these week-over-week R0 curves is on hyperbolic decline, and at current rates regardless of the ti, should be below R0=1 by sometime between 4/26 and 5/4. i'm not saying my numbers are accurate from an epidimiological standpoint, but thought it was an interesting view of the data trends.
here is the method i used for calculating:
R0 Estimation Method
here is the method i used for calculating:
R0 Estimation Method
I think the issue is the vast definitions of a COVID-19 death among nations. I don't want to turn this into a political discussion thread, but we have been very liberal on labeling COVID-19 deaths so it's not exactly an apples to apples comparison.
I don't know why S. Korea would lie, but I have a hard time believing their data. I know they tested extensively and tracked people, but that's assuming testing has a high accuracy. All the testing we've seen indicates otherwise.
Even if their tests are 75% correct, that's 25% of people testing negative that are positive that can get out and spread the virus, easier than other countries as well considering they didn't do a true lockdown.
Even if their tests are 75% correct, that's 25% of people testing negative that are positive that can get out and spread the virus, easier than other countries as well considering they didn't do a true lockdown.
Mike Shaw - Class of '03
Old Buffalo said:
I think the issue is the vast definitions of a COVID-19 death among nations. I don't want to turn this into a political discussion thread, but we have been very liberal on labeling COVID-19 deaths so it's not exactly an apples to apples comparison.
You are right but also 180 degrees wrong.
This is correct.
I think the issue is the vast definitions of a COVID-19 death among nations
This is 180 degrees wrong.
we have been very liberal on labeling COVID-19 deaths
We have been reporting more accurately than other countries. Other countries like Germany are too hesitant to call a death covid-19 related.
Not counting people with comorbidities as covid-19 deaths is like counting gun shot victims as organ failure, loss of blood or catastrophic nerve failure that because that is why they died the bullet just pushed that along.
https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/2nd-coronavirus-patient-dies-in-lehigh-valley-he-was-61-and-from-warren-county.htmlQuote:
He said the primary cause of the man's death was a head injury from a fall at home, but that the virus was listed as a contributing factor to his death.
I'm really not trying to argue the rights and wrongs of classification, I'm just pointing out that we have taken a broader classification of death than other countries.Quote:
"There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition, and let's say the virus caused you to go to the ICU [intensive care unit] and then have a heart or kidney problem. Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death. The intent is ... if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that."
As you can see above, one death that is counted is from a man in NJ who fell at his home sustaining head injuries. Would he have recovered without any complications of COVID-19? We're not sure - but regardless he is counted.
Old Buffalo said:https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/2nd-coronavirus-patient-dies-in-lehigh-valley-he-was-61-and-from-warren-county.htmlQuote:
He said the primary cause of the man's death was a head injury from a fall at home, but that the virus was listed as a contributing factor to his death.I'm really not trying to argue the rights and wrongs of classification, I'm just pointing out that we have taken a broader classification of death than other countries.Quote:
"There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition, and let's say the virus caused you to go to the ICU [intensive care unit] and then have a heart or kidney problem. Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death. The intent is ... if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that."
As you can see above, one death that is counted is from a man in NJ who fell at his home sustaining head injuries. Would he have recovered without any complications of COVID-19? We're not sure - but regardless he is counted.
We have undercounted by thousands in NY. I have no idea what it's like in the rest of the country.
Then there was this report from a medic who responded to 12 cardiac arrest calls in one day (he said the average pre covid was 2 to 3 for the week) and said all 12 had heavy covid-19 symptoms leading to their deaths and none of the 12 were tested or counted in the 594 dead from covid-19 that day in NYC.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52196815
As much as they said last week would be brutal. this is the week I've been dreading since the start of march. Thank God the curve decided to bend last week.
Massive dump of all of my daily plots:
Problem is the hospitalization data from the covid tracking project is incomplete and inconsistent. Comparing that to the model is an awful comparison. Its like trying to gauge a RB's season total for yardage but only counting half the games and sometimes only counting plays that went over 20 yards.Keegan99 said:
They have a lot of threads on their Twitter account talking about it. For example:
PJYoung said:
Then there was this report from a medic who responded to 12 cardiac arrest calls in one day (he said the average pre covid was 2 to 3 for the week) and said all 12 had heavy covid-19 symptoms leading to their deaths and none of the 12 were tested or counted in the 594 dead from covid-19 that day in NYC.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52196815
Just as an aside, unless I'm missing some other huge hotspot, only NY is having a serious issue with undercounting as any place else should be testing corpses who they suspect of COVID. NY had to stop doing that due to sheer number of cases and shortage of tests. It sounds like testing is quickly ramping up there as well and the shortages might soon be (or are?) over, and they'll have very accurate numbers for those who died at home as well again shortly.
Very true.
Be careful. Can't disagree with anyone on this board.
All opposing views must be posted to F16.
All opposing views must be posted to F16.
Lot of that on these boards. Some of these guys charts are very well done. Very interesting and you can see things getting much better. Time to go to work!
This is for the U.S. as a whole:
Mordred said:PJYoung said:
Then there was this report from a medic who responded to 12 cardiac arrest calls in one day (he said the average pre covid was 2 to 3 for the week) and said all 12 had heavy covid-19 symptoms leading to their deaths and none of the 12 were tested or counted in the 594 dead from covid-19 that day in NYC.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52196815
Just as an aside, unless I'm missing some other huge hotspot, only NY is having a serious issue with undercounting as any place else should be testing corpses who they suspect of COVID. NY had to stop doing that due to sheer number of cases and shortage of tests. It sounds like testing is quickly ramping up there as well and the shortages might soon be (or are?) over, and they'll have very accurate numbers for those who died at home as well again shortly.
Agreed.
https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/04/14/new-york-city-coronavirus-death-toll-jumps-by-3-700-after-uncounted-fatalities-are-added-1275931
Quote:
In a new count released Tuesday, 3,778 more deaths were added to the rolls driving up the previously recorded total of 6,589 by more than half. Now, the city records 10,367 deaths related to the virus.
Previously, the city had not counted people who died at home without getting tested for the coronavirus, or who died in nursing homes or at hospitals, but did not have a confirmed positive test result. Mayor Bill de Blasio admitted last week that the true number of deaths was far higher than the official tally, and said the city would start including presumed coronavirus cases in its data.
The latest statistics include probable coronavirus deaths through Monday. And even the new statistics may understate the death toll. Probable deaths were recorded as people who did not have a positive lab test for Covid-19, but did have Covid-19 or something similar listed as the cause of death on their death certificate.
People whose death certificates don't mention the virus still are not counted. From March 11 through April 13, 8,184 city residents died of causes not classified as confirmed or probable coronavirus.
Among probable coronavirus deaths, 60 percent happened in hospitals, 22 percent in the victim's home and 18 percent in nursing homes or long-term care facilities.
I do think a lot of early deaths were missed across the country but that's based on anecdotal evidence only. And 'a lot' is probably overstating it.
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