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Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag
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In reply to BusterAg • 9:24a, 7/2/20
BusterAg said:
As I understand it, if you go into the hospital for a broken arm, they are going to test you for COVID. If you have COVID, now you have to go to the COVID wing / floor to separate you from the rest of the patient population.

After they put a cast on your arm, if you are not experiencing any major symptoms, you get to go home. It's unclear that each of these types of cases get counted as COVID hospitalizations, but I would be shocked if most of them are not reported as such. Much easier just to count the number of butts in COVID beds and report that number. So, hospital bed usage probably isn't all that much help either as a time series. I'm not sure an uptick in COVID hospital bed usage tells us much.

ICU COVID, ventilator usage, and COVID deaths are probably the only good things to pay attention to as far as time series go.

Your understanding is mistaken. Broken arms rarely require hospitalization. You will usually not be tested if you break your arm. You will be discharged and told to follow up with orthopedics.

The patients who are typically being tested who require admission are those with concerning symptoms, those with possible symptoms of COVID, and those requiring surgeries.
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ExpressAg11
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In reply to Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag • 10:06a, 7/2/20
AG
So for these younger people you are seeing be hospitalized, do most have underlying health conditions/overweight? Or are they relatively healthy?
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PJYoung
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11:56a, 7/2/20
AG
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BusterAg
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In reply to Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag • 12:53p, 7/2/20
AG
Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag said:
BusterAg said:
As I understand it, if you go into the hospital for a broken arm, they are going to test you for COVID. If you have COVID, now you have to go to the COVID wing / floor to separate you from the rest of the patient population.

After they put a cast on your arm, if you are not experiencing any major symptoms, you get to go home. It's unclear that each of these types of cases get counted as COVID hospitalizations, but I would be shocked if most of them are not reported as such. Much easier just to count the number of butts in COVID beds and report that number. So, hospital bed usage probably isn't all that much help either as a time series. I'm not sure an uptick in COVID hospital bed usage tells us much.

ICU COVID, ventilator usage, and COVID deaths are probably the only good things to pay attention to as far as time series go.

Your understanding is mistaken. Broken arms rarely require hospitalization. You will usually not be tested if you break your arm. You will be discharged and told to follow up with orthopedics.

The patients who are typically being tested who require admission are those with concerning symptoms, those with possible symptoms of COVID, and those requiring surgeries.
Silly nit pick there.

What if it was a really bad arm break, and required surgery, and the patient had COVID?
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Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag
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In reply to BusterAg • 1:06p, 7/2/20
BusterAg said:
Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag said:
BusterAg said:
As I understand it, if you go into the hospital for a broken arm, they are going to test you for COVID. If you have COVID, now you have to go to the COVID wing / floor to separate you from the rest of the patient population.

After they put a cast on your arm, if you are not experiencing any major symptoms, you get to go home. It's unclear that each of these types of cases get counted as COVID hospitalizations, but I would be shocked if most of them are not reported as such. Much easier just to count the number of butts in COVID beds and report that number. So, hospital bed usage probably isn't all that much help either as a time series. I'm not sure an uptick in COVID hospital bed usage tells us much.

ICU COVID, ventilator usage, and COVID deaths are probably the only good things to pay attention to as far as time series go.

Your understanding is mistaken. Broken arms rarely require hospitalization. You will usually not be tested if you break your arm. You will be discharged and told to follow up with orthopedics.

The patients who are typically being tested who require admission are those with concerning symptoms, those with possible symptoms of COVID, and those requiring surgeries.
Silly nit pick there.

What if it was a really bad arm break, and required surgery, and the patient had COVID?

It's not a silly nitpick, what you are describing is an elective case. Most elective cases are cancelled and the patient quarantines at home if they test positive. I have yet to see an incidental COVID positive case on a patient requiring emergent or urgent surgery. I'm sure it happens, but it is very uncommon.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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ramblin_ag02
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In reply to PJYoung • 1:14p, 7/2/20
AG
I'm with that post all the way until the virus dying out part. Younger patients, more testing and better treatments are all dropping the death rate like a rock. However, we are still seeing increases in hospitalization, ICU and overall deaths. The virus isn't dying out anytime soon
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GAC06
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In reply to ramblin_ag02 • 2:15p, 7/2/20
AG
Looking at Italy, Spain, UK, and others it looks like the virus took roughly three months to mostly burn out. Why do you think that won't happen here by region when a real spike occurs?
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DadHammer
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In reply to ramblin_ag02 • 2:18p, 7/2/20
AG
It will burn out soon, just like every other location it strikes. That's what all the data is showing.
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Skillet Shot
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2:30p, 7/2/20
FWIW all pregnant mothers in Houston are being tested prior to entry, at least for planned inducement/C-sections. I doubt they are a significant increase in cases. Also, not sure if they would be considered a hospitalized COIVD case if they tested positive and were asymptomatic,
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ramblin_ag02
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2:36p, 7/2/20
AG
It takes a special kind of creativity to see an increase in cases, hospitalizations, ICU admits and now deaths and make a statement that the virus is dying out. I hope all those indicators start to drop off like they have in Europe and NY/NJ, but we still haven't even peaked in Texas.
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GAC06
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In reply to ramblin_ag02 • 2:45p, 7/2/20
AG
Perhaps we have differing definitions of "anytime soon" but the virus has burned out in numerous places in roughly three months. It seems reasonable to think it will do so here now that we are seeing a real spike. Hopefully in less than three months since we had a slow spread from late March through June unlike places like Spain/Italy/UK where it really took off early
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Keegan99
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2:50p, 7/2/20
AG
It's a micro vs macro view.

Macro, COVID is effectively over. Nationwide all-cause deaths are comparable to their recent historical norms.

Micro, some areas are still seeing outbreaks.
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PJYoung
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2:51p, 7/2/20
AG
Again, if getting infected with Covid-19 meant you died or recovered to 100% you might have a point.

Unfortunately, that is not the case.
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CowtownAg06
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In reply to PJYoung • 3:12p, 7/2/20
AG
What is the case? Every person I know who's had made a 100% recovery within a week. What % of mid term or longer term effects? We talking 5% or less than 1%. We don't know, but it isn't looking a like a large number.
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cone
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In reply to CowtownAg06 • 3:21p, 7/2/20
AG
same

granted that everyone i know who has got it is working age
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CowtownAg06
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3:23p, 7/2/20
AG
I'm also not saying that my small sample is instructive for all cases, but if we are going to raise concerns over longer term complications, we should define what we are talking about.
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eric76
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In reply to CowtownAg06 • 3:26p, 7/2/20
AG
CowtownAg06 said:
What is the case? Every person I know who's had made a 100% recovery within a week. What % of mid term or longer term effects? We talking 5% or less than 1%. We don't know, but it isn't looking a like a large number.
I know a number of people who were sick for far more than a week. I talked to one of them at the post office last night who got it about a week before I did -- he has recovered but is far from 100% recovery even now.

He's my age. A year ago, he looked like someone in their late 30s or early 40s. Yesterday, maybe early 60s.
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GAC06
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In reply to eric76 • 3:33p, 7/2/20
AG
I know a guy that got it. He said he had a mild headache for two days but didn't feel bad enough to stop remodeling his basement. His wife and kids never had symptoms. Anecdotes are fun!
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cone
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In reply to eric76 • 3:41p, 7/2/20
AG
so he now looks 5 years younger than his actual age?

okay?
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aginlakeway
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In reply to GAC06 • 4:10p, 7/2/20
AG
GAC06 said:
I know a guy that got it. He said he had a mild headache for two days but didn't feel bad enough to stop remodeling his basement. His wife and kids never had symptoms. Anecdotes are fun!

So curious ... why did he get tested? Seems to me like a lot of people are getting tested who don't even have serious symptoms, like fever or cough. Am I wrong?
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cone
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In reply to aginlakeway • 4:15p, 7/2/20
AG
why wouldn't you want to find out if you have it?

early diagnosis seems to be really helping with treatment
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GAC06
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In reply to aginlakeway • 4:16p, 7/2/20
AG
He was curious so he did an antibody test after
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ExpressAg11
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In reply to aginlakeway • 4:18p, 7/2/20
AG
A lot of people are having to get tested to go back to work or go to the doctor. My wife is 8 weeks pregnant and neither of us have symptoms, but both had to get tested before we could get her first sonogram.
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eric76
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In reply to cone • 4:21p, 7/2/20
AG
cone said:
so he now looks 5 years younger than his actual age?

okay?
The main difference is that his hair hasn't turned grey yet.

Only his hairdresser knows for sure.
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aginlakeway
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In reply to cone • 4:23p, 7/2/20
AG
cone said:
why wouldn't you want to find out if you have it?

early diagnosis seems to be really helping with treatment

Agree. But I probably won't get tested if I have no symptoms.
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aginlakeway
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In reply to ExpressAg11 • 4:23p, 7/2/20
AG
ExpressAg11 said:
A lot of people are having to get tested to go back to work or go to the doctor. My wife is 8 weeks pregnant and neither of us have symptoms, but both had to get tested before we could get her first sonogram.
Makes sense. Thanks!
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Knucklesammich
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In reply to Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag • 4:54p, 7/2/20
Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag said:
BusterAg said:
As I understand it, if you go into the hospital for a broken arm, they are going to test you for COVID. If you have COVID, now you have to go to the COVID wing / floor to separate you from the rest of the patient population.

After they put a cast on your arm, if you are not experiencing any major symptoms, you get to go home. It's unclear that each of these types of cases get counted as COVID hospitalizations, but I would be shocked if most of them are not reported as such. Much easier just to count the number of butts in COVID beds and report that number. So, hospital bed usage probably isn't all that much help either as a time series. I'm not sure an uptick in COVID hospital bed usage tells us much.

ICU COVID, ventilator usage, and COVID deaths are probably the only good things to pay attention to as far as time series go.

Your understanding is mistaken. Broken arms rarely require hospitalization. You will usually not be tested if you break your arm. You will be discharged and told to follow up with orthopedics.

The patients who are typically being tested who require admission are those with concerning symptoms, those with possible symptoms of COVID, and those requiring surgeries.
Wonder if it varies by hospital? My mom went to the ER for something not remotely COVID related. She was tested and couldn't be admitted (she stayed overnight for observation) until the results came back.

They wouldn't let me back in the ER to see her without a COVID test. To get to her room I needed a temp check and they weren't allowing children under the age of 10 past the lobby based on what the family in front of me was told.

I don't think hospitals are padding stats in Texas but I also don't think there a universal standard on when people are tested.

This was Scott & White in Temple just over three weeks ago.
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Stymied
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In reply to ramblin_ag02 • 5:37p, 7/2/20
AG
ramblin_ag02 said:
It takes a special kind of creativity to see an increase in cases, hospitalizations, ICU admits and now deaths and make a statement that the virus is dying out. I hope all those indicators start to drop off like they have in Europe and NY/NJ, but we still haven't even peaked in Texas.
I don't think I've seen any evidence that deaths in Texas have started to move up on a rolling basis. They are pretty steady when you look at them on average.

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Spaulding
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In reply to GAC06 • 6:28p, 7/2/20
GAC06 said:
Looking at Italy, Spain, UK, and others it looks like the virus took roughly three months to mostly burn out. Why do you think that won't happen here by region when a real spike occurs?
Hope you are right but my understanding is those places that had spikes and then imposed very strict lockdowns followed by mask mandates, widespread testing and contact tracing.
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Spaulding
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In reply to Stymied • 6:29p, 7/2/20
Pretty sure Dallas county had a new high for deaths earlier this week
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Stymied
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In reply to Spaulding • 6:32p, 7/2/20
AG
One day doesn't make a trend. The rolling average hasn't moved much. The media and Jenkins did make a big deal about it though and the trend really hasn't continued from what I've seen.
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Stymied
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In reply to Stymied • 6:39p, 7/2/20
AG
Today's death count in Dallas was 7.

They are really burying the death stats while grandstanding the case counts. They are only showing charts for cases and hospitals. There are no trend charts for deaths. It's not very honest and unbiased reporting from the County. Makes you wonder...
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ramblin_ag02
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In reply to Stymied • 6:59p, 7/2/20
AG
https://m.imgur.com/qYcDqsR?r

I was going based on this graph, where it went from 20/day in mid June to 40/day around now. Since deaths are lagging indicator we'd expect that number to keep going higher, but luckily nowhere near as high as NY or Europe
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Stymied
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In reply to ramblin_ag02 • 7:53p, 7/2/20
AG
That's fair. Given the huge spike of cases in Texas, I would expect a much larger increase in deaths. I hope it doesn't but the correlation hasn't held this far.
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Dazed and Confused
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In reply to Stymied • 8:48p, 7/2/20
AG
AeroAg2003 said:
ramblin_ag02 said:
It takes a special kind of creativity to see an increase in cases, hospitalizations, ICU admits and now deaths and make a statement that the virus is dying out. I hope all those indicators start to drop off like they have in Europe and NY/NJ, but we still haven't even peaked in Texas.
I don't think I've seen any evidence that deaths in Texas have started to move up on a rolling basis. They are pretty steady when you look at them on average.

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