Still pretty steady since April. Around 30 per day. Given where cases have gone, the relationship isn't following so far. Cases have gone "exponential" while deaths are pretty flat. Hope it stays that way.
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We were at about 22 a day, now about 30, so a 36% increase. I believe the median hospitalization age has decreased during this time and of course we have better protocols. Just don't like the trend, even if it is less than the hospitalization rate increase.AeroAg2003 said:
Still pretty steady since April. Around 30 per day. Given where cases have gone, the relationship isn't following so far. Cases have gone "exponential" while deaths are pretty flat. Hope it stays that way.
The current 7-day peak is 36.
The previous high was 38.
Deaths are going to lag behind the cases. But as I said earlier I think the death rate vs. case rate is dropping due to:
- More testing
- Better treatment
We are still likely to see a rise in deaths until the case level drops.
Demographics must also be considered.
What ages are getting sick?
What ages are getting sick?
That's a fair question. I don't have the data. Anecdotally it was younger people who started the uptick. My guess is it is spreading more uniformly now.Keegan99 said:
Demographics must also be considered.
What ages are getting sick?
And I would imagine the protocals today in nursing homes are much different than they were 3 months ago. And the elderly in general or people with issues are being much more careful....which is pretty much what we've been asking for, for a while now.
65% of Hospitalizations in Travis county for Hispanics now. They represent 28% of county population.Keegan99 said:
Demographics must also be considered.
What ages are getting sick?
As for Deaths total (all races), out of the 133, only 18 deaths age 60 and under.
Total Travis county population , about 1,300,000.
The overrepresentation of Hispanics seems to be a state and national trend.
I disagree (slightly) with that interpretation. The border counties did a better job at containment in the early days. Per capita they're less severely impacted than the other metros, but agree they're getting whacked all the same. All relative to where you're starting from.
goodAg80 said:That's a fair question. I don't have the data. Anecdotally it was younger people who started the uptick. My guess is it is spreading more uniformly now.Keegan99 said:
Demographics must also be considered.
What ages are getting sick?
Until it is answered it is the only important question. If it has gotten back into nursing homes that is bad. If it is going through the statistically invulnerable younger crowd of non-social distancers and river tubers, etc.,.....isn't that precisely what we want to happen?
I think the goal was more similar to Japan , Korea or Europe
Cyp0111 said:
I think the goal was more similar to Japan , Korea or Europe
A hypothetical: What if we discovered somehow that a vaccine wasn't possible, ever? The only way out of COVID-19 given the demographics of who it kills is to try and infect as much of the population as you can beginning at age 0 and moving up from there at some regulated rate that would not overwhelm the hospitals.
That is one way to frame our current failure as a republic to answer the call to protect our citizens
Cyp0111 said:
That is one way to frame our current failure as a republic to answer the call to protect our citizens
There are many more things to protect our citizens from in addition to a given virus with a survival rate of over 99.6%.
Spaulding said:Hope you are right but my understanding is those places that had spikes and then imposed very strict lockdowns followed by mask mandates, widespread testing and contact tracing.GAC06 said:
Looking at Italy, Spain, UK, and others it looks like the virus took roughly three months to mostly burn out. Why do you think that won't happen here by region when a real spike occurs?
Except the ones like Sweden that didn't. There are studies that looked at the duration of the peak across multiple countries and found little to no correlation with control methods, especially lockdowns.
Squadron7 said:Cyp0111 said:
I think the goal was more similar to Japan , Korea or Europe
A hypothetical: What if we discovered somehow that a vaccine wasn't possible, ever? The only way out of COVID-19 given the demographics of who it kills is to try and infect as much of the population as you can beginning at age 0 and moving up from there at some regulated rate that would not overwhelm the hospitals.
Most likely scenario. I think we will get to herd immunity in spite of our irrational policy choices.
Fitch said:
I disagree (slightly) with that interpretation. The border counties did a better job at containment in the early days. Per capita they're less severely impacted than the other metros, but agree they're getting whacked all the same. All relative to where you're starting from.
Hidalgo had 32 fatalities as of July 1st. That is, for all of March, April, May, and June.
The last three days they have 25.
That doesn't happen in a population of 870k unless the ill are being imported.
or the outbreak now is much more prevalent than it was over the last three months
As a relatively rural hospital they are no doubt getting cases from surrounding counties, but if the inference is that there are non-citizens crossing the border for medical service that feels a little dubious. There are a few posters who live in the area who can weigh in.
There are 1.5MM US expats that live in Mexico. It would be erroneous to assume non-citizens are the only border crossers.
Cases are definitely being imported. It's no coincidence why border counties from the Pacific to the Gulf of Mexico are seeing similar trends.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/29/health/border-hospitals-coronavirus/index.html
Cases are definitely being imported. It's no coincidence why border counties from the Pacific to the Gulf of Mexico are seeing similar trends.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/29/health/border-hospitals-coronavirus/index.html
Agreed.
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Quote:
...the inference is that there are non-citizens crossing the border for medical service that feels a little dubious.
All things remaining equal....where would you rather get medical care?
Zero question, the US. My point was the border has been closed for 3-4 months to all but US citizens.
I'm sorry, why are we tracking border counties?
Good question
are those not filled with Americans?
Why are we separating them out for unique tracking from the rest of Texas? Is there an action to take? I think Abbott already stopped elective surgeries in some south texas counties.cone said:
are those not filled with Americans?
Because there's been a rising trend of death in Mexico over the last month or two, the border is where the largest rate of growth in Texas is currently, and it's a trend that's showing in other border states?
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