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Last: 2 yr ago by AggieUSMC
Looks like Houston turning the corner. At least for now, per TMC data.
Monday always seems to have an odd weekend skew. Curious to see tomorrow's numbers. Hopefully they're still at encouraging. My SIL is an RT at a hospital in The Woodlands and they're predicting peak in 2 weeks.
Which would be not too far from hospital peak, no ?
Another positive day from TMC data. Hopefully these trends continue and our hospital staff can get some relief in the near future.
this thing is so weird. I can't wait to read the retrospective in 20 years when they're able to dive through and figure out why it killed some healthy 25 year olds and gave fat wheelchair bound 75 year olds the sniffles.
Joe Boudain said:
this thing is so weird. I can't wait to read the retrospective in 20 years when they're able to dive through and figure out why it killed some healthy 25 year olds and gave fat wheelchair bound 75 year olds the sniffles.
It is very strange. Overall the death/hospitalizations are highly correlated to age and comorbidities but there are plenty of outlier examples. I think it is likely a combination of initial viral load, the covid variant, genetics of the individual and possibly a lack of vitamin or hormone - vitamin D, A, C possibly. Hopefully studies come out on the outliers from both sides so we can better protect ourselves against severe disease.
Hidalgo county hospitalizations are dropping now as well.
Down to 406 today from a high of near 700 last week.
Down to 406 today from a high of near 700 last week.
This is going to cycle after cycle after cycle of ups and downs every couple of months until a medical breakthrough stops it and mutations.
Just like the medical breakthroughs have stopped the mutations on the common cold and the flu!
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
huh?
when it becomes endemic, you shouldn't see dramatic hospitalization spikes
when it becomes endemic, you shouldn't see dramatic hospitalization spikes
India is starting to spike again. A new variant will be on the way and round and round we'll go.
AggieAuditor said:
India is starting to spike again. A new variant will be on the way and round and round we'll go.
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
How was India able to "hit the brakes" like that? I don't think I've ever seen such a steep decline anywhere. Did they just sort of give up on testing there for a while?
I work with a bunch of people who live in New Delhi
from what I've come to understand pretty much everyone they know caught it in April
from what I've come to understand pretty much everyone they know caught it in April
I mean, the timeline for that is basically March thru July. The timeline just goes back to March of 2020 so everything gets compacted.
Plus it burned like wildfire so fast up and fast down.
Plus it burned like wildfire so fast up and fast down.
I'm starting to think everyone I know has either had it or has been vaccinated (or both like my wife). Gotta think we're burning through it too.cone said:
I work with a bunch of people who live in New Delhi
from what I've come to understand pretty much everyone they know caught it in April
I know double digit fully vaxxed that caught delta
all fine
all fine
So do I. Fortunately, none required hospitalization.
This guy posts daily charts, good stuff
Should start seeing hospitalizations drop it looks like
Texas pic.twitter.com/KWqq5pRvDY
— Jonah Fleishhacker (@jonahfleish) September 1, 2021
USA pic.twitter.com/IpwiA8EBav
— Jonah Fleishhacker (@jonahfleish) September 1, 2021
Should start seeing hospitalizations drop it looks like
Quote:
Should start seeing hospitalizations drop it looks like
That's been my hope in monitoring this. All of the trends look encouraging. By all accounts, hospitals should be hitting their peaks soon.
https://www.covidestim.org/us/TX
So has Cali just not experienced the Delta spike yet or what?
80sGeorge said:
So has Cali just not experienced the Delta spike yet or what?
Correct, their time is coming. Northeast states too.
California had a Covid surge, but their vaccine compliance is higher than Texas, Florida and the other southern states (California 68%, Texas 49%). Vaccines matter. Their surge wasn't as severe as ours.
They also went back to mask requirements fast. Now whether or not masks work is a debate, but when people are mandated to mask there also comes with that more distancing and less public events where spreading will occur.
They also went back to mask requirements fast. Now whether or not masks work is a debate, but when people are mandated to mask there also comes with that more distancing and less public events where spreading will occur.
Only LA and SF went to masks. Delta is crushing through San Diego and the state, but as mentioned, vaccination rates are way higher. Unvaccinated in SD County are testing positive 7x more often than the vaccinated, despite being only 25% of the population (up to 85% with one dose).Aston94 said:
California had a Covid surge, but their vaccine compliance is higher than Texas, Florida and the other southern states (California 68%, Texas 49%). Vaccines matter. Their surge wasn't as severe as ours.
They also went back to mask requirements fast. Now whether or not masks work is a debate, but when people are mandated to mask there also comes with that more distancing and less public events where spreading will occur.
School surge seems to have begun.
Newest data has the Texas new confirmed plus probable cases on 8/31: ~28,000. As far as I can tell it is the third highest daily reported case count in the pandemic and largest case count of the current wave. 7-day moving average of cases creeping back up.
Seemed like common sense we were going to see a spike in reporting. Reported case counts were so low the prior two days a backlog dump was coming as is typical mid-week. Tuesday and Wednesday numbers (reported on Wednesday and Thursday) tend to be the highest. The seven day moving average as of tomorrow will really show us the trend here.
Newest data has the Texas new confirmed plus probable cases on 8/31: ~28,000. As far as I can tell it is the third highest daily reported case count in the pandemic and largest case count of the current wave. 7-day moving average of cases creeping back up.
Seemed like common sense we were going to see a spike in reporting. Reported case counts were so low the prior two days a backlog dump was coming as is typical mid-week. Tuesday and Wednesday numbers (reported on Wednesday and Thursday) tend to be the highest. The seven day moving average as of tomorrow will really show us the trend here.
some parts of California have likely also already reached herd immunity. Like take Las angeles county for example. that county has confirmed case counts numbering just over 14% of the population. which with their 25,284 deaths would put their ifr at 1.8% which none of us believe. if you use the assumed ifr of 0.34% that my spreadsheet model has for Harris county that would put them at 7.5MM true cases or ~75% of the population. while harris is at 46% of the population. then from vaccines, 64.7% have had at least one does, and 51.8% have had two. from those numbers, there is a very real possibility that nearly every person in LA county has either been vaccinated or had the virus at this point. and that is 25% of their state's population. so it makes sense that California wouldn't see a spike like other states that had not been hit as hard and had lower vaccine rates.Aston94 said:
California had a Covid surge, but their vaccine compliance is higher than Texas, Florida and the other southern states (California 68%, Texas 49%). Vaccines matter. Their surge wasn't as severe as ours.
They also went back to mask requirements fast. Now whether or not masks work is a debate, but when people are mandated to mask there also comes with that more distancing and less public events where spreading will occur.
I buy this way more than the vax. Hell Israel is 99% vaxed and saw a spike.
Cali also doesn't have immigrants flooding their border.
Cali also doesn't have immigrants flooding their border.
California saw a spike. Just not as big as Texas.80sGeorge said:
I buy this way more than the vax. Hell Israel is 99% vaxed and saw a spike.
Cali also doesn't have immigrants flooding their border.
Israel is 62% vaxed, close though
BlackGoldAg2011 said:some parts of California have likely also already reached herd immunity. Like take Las angeles county for example. that county has confirmed case counts numbering just over 14% of the population. which with their 25,284 deaths would put their ifr at 1.8% which none of us believe. if you use the assumed ifr of 0.34% that my spreadsheet model has for Harris county that would put them at 7.5MM true cases or ~75% of the population. while harris is at 46% of the population. then from vaccines, 64.7% have had at least one does, and 51.8% have had two. from those numbers, there is a very real possibility that nearly every person in LA county has either been vaccinated or had the virus at this point. and that is 25% of their state's population. so it makes sense that California wouldn't see a spike like other states that had not been hit as hard and had lower vaccine rates.Aston94 said:
California had a Covid surge, but their vaccine compliance is higher than Texas, Florida and the other southern states (California 68%, Texas 49%). Vaccines matter. Their surge wasn't as severe as ours.
They also went back to mask requirements fast. Now whether or not masks work is a debate, but when people are mandated to mask there also comes with that more distancing and less public events where spreading will occur.
Herd immunity isn't a thing now. It will be endemic and we will get it multiple times.
BlackGoldAg2011 said:
Israel is 62% vaxed, close though
I think that includes kids who aren't eligible.
More than 78 percent of Israelis eligible for COVID-19 vaccination have been inoculated.
I do believe that is the case, but for population level immunity discussions I've always thought the overall % vaccinated was more useful since even though <12 is ineligible for the vaccine they are still part of the susceptible group.
BlackGoldAg2011 said:
I do believe that is the case, but for population level immunity discussions I've always thought the overall % vaccinated was more useful since even though <12 is ineligible for the vaccine they are still part of the susceptible group.
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