I think the mass transit thing is just for essential workers. But I'm OK with that, don't thing alot of them have cars and that's their only mode to get to the hospital or wherever. No idea if it's being enforced.Keegan99 said:
NY just closed playgrounds on Thursday and is still running mass transit.
Exsurge Domine said:
First time deaths have been under trend line for a while, no?
Premium said:
So why wouldn't it flare up when we all go back to normal living?
rally-cap said:
The https://covid19.healthdata.org/ projections just got updated, and things changed pretty drastically -
The projected US peak date stayed the same, but the projected bed needs were nearly cut in half, and now look to be under the total bed count in the country, so no shortage. And the projected total death count came down to roughly 82,000.
The projected Texas peak date went from May 6 to April 19! And the projected bed needs went from roughly 20,000 total to just over 4000 total!
Hopefully these projections and trends continue to improve, and hopefully the real numbers follow suit.
HouAggie2007 said:
So glad to see they adjusted the model for most major cities being under a stay at home mandate! That model look great
rally-cap said:
The https://covid19.healthdata.org/ projections just got updated, and things changed pretty drastically -
The projected US peak date stayed the same, but the projected bed needs were nearly cut in half. And the projected total death count came down to roughly 82,000.
The projected Texas peak date went from May 6 to April 19! And the projected bed needs went from roughly 20,000 total to just over 4000 total!
Hopefully these projections and trends continue to improve, and hopefully the real numbers follow suit.
Worldometer has had to adjust their numbers several times over the last few weeks. Countries and states have had issues reporting numbers, and so the reported numbers were off. I wouldn't be surprised if the difference in numbers is a reporting issue, or a timing issue. Worldometer works off GMT time, so every country's "day" is the same. So the covid19.healtdata may be working off of a more US centered timeline, which may cause a difference in day to day reporting numbers.AgLiving06 said:rally-cap said:
The https://covid19.healthdata.org/ projections just got updated, and things changed pretty drastically -
The projected US peak date stayed the same, but the projected bed needs were nearly cut in half. And the projected total death count came down to roughly 82,000.
The projected Texas peak date went from May 6 to April 19! And the projected bed needs went from roughly 20,000 total to just over 4000 total!
Hopefully these projections and trends continue to improve, and hopefully the real numbers follow suit.
This website is showing something very different for April 4th.
This site is saying that 1755 people died this day.
Worldometer is saying that 1330 died.
That's a pretty substantial difference.
I'm curious what they do for April 5th, since Worldometer shows an even lower death rate.
Good well thought out post, and no...not too early to think about all this. I was thinking about all this today. At some point, in a few weeks, the numbers will start to down quickly. Then what? People are going to see that and wonder why they're still cooped up at home. Pressure to open up will get intense at that point.Complete Idiot said:
The restrictions on social gatherings and working from home, where possible, seems to have been effective and the reduction in predicted deaths due to this is amazing and great to see. If we continue to trend the right way I'm wondering 1) How far do we need to trend to open things back up a bit (maybe more of a Sweden approach at some point? just restrictions for those most at risk?) and 2) I'm now very curious about a second wave and how far we will go to prevent that. I know many are very fearful about long running economic impacts, at what point will the economic pressure force us into a second wave scenario, and would we lock down again as we are now if that second wave because too intense?
I'm not considering the fact we'll have a better treatment or vaccine in the timeframe needed to prevent the second wave. I think economic and social pressures to open things back up will come before we have ideal treatments ready - but perhaps with our improved knowledge and vigilance we can open back up a bit and not risk having an overwhelming number of people sick.
Very happy for what appears to be great news, now thinking down the road a bit - maybe too early for that.
