Daily Charts

607,177 Views | 2786 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by AggieUSMC
Philip J Fry
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AG
Yeah. Their infection growth is looking good now. but deaths could lag infections by 2-3 weeks. Meaning the effect of the lockdown still isn't evident yet.

There was a huge drop in hospitalizations today. Hopefully it's real.
Keegan99
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NY just closed playgrounds on Thursday and is still running mass transit.
Aust Ag
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Keegan99 said:

NY just closed playgrounds on Thursday and is still running mass transit.
I think the mass transit thing is just for essential workers. But I'm OK with that, don't thing alot of them have cars and that's their only mode to get to the hospital or wherever. No idea if it's being enforced.
Philip J Fry
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Okay. I'm having a hard time not getting emotional. Please let this death curve be real. Please let this be the start of the bend.

Also found a mistake in my spreadsheet for the NY CFR. I was diving by new daily cases, not the cumulative.
Premium
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AG
That is a clear bend. What do the projected deaths look like with this bend?
Philip J Fry
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Just guesstimating, but it looks like we hit 20K next week instead of this week if the bend is real.
Exsurge Domine
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First time deaths have been under trend line for a while, no?
PJYoung
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Exsurge Domine said:

First time deaths have been under trend line for a while, no?

Since over 2 weeks ago it looks like.
Mr President Elect
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Sweet. According to the https://covid19.healthdata.org/ site, my state (co) is past the peak now! Were two weeks out prior to the update.
rally-cap
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The https://covid19.healthdata.org/ projections just got updated, and things changed pretty drastically -

The projected US peak date stayed the same, but the projected bed needs were nearly cut in half. And the projected total death count came down to roughly 82,000.

The projected Texas peak date went from May 6 to April 19! And the projected bed needs went from roughly 20,000 total to just over 4000 total!

Hopefully these projections and trends continue to improve, and hopefully the real numbers follow suit.
74Ag1
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Texas keeps tilting down a bit
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
New Cases
4/2 650
4/3 818
4/4 713
4/5 506
74Ag1
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Excellent news
pocketrockets06
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Be cautious about these numbers. The model is projecting peak ventilator use in Louisiana of 286 ventilators but we are currently using 561 for COVID patients per the Louisiana department of health.

It also projected our peak resource use was 4 days ago. When we had like 5000 less cases in Louisiana. I think their model glitched.
Premium
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AG
So why wouldn't it flare up when we all go back to normal living?
Exsurge Domine
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Premium said:

So why wouldn't it flare up when we all go back to normal living?


It probably will, but it'll be more manageable every time

And hopefully we get a major therapeutic or vaccine sometime
Premium
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AG
Looks like June 1 there will be next to no new deaths. I guess we will be back to work prior? We are working, but I mean everyone who isn't.
mike0305
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I'm a also bit skeptical, still a lot of deaths nationally. A few more days under trend for deaths would be a big win, NY having a better day was also great. If they are just starting to show results from increased use of HCQ treatment even better news.

I don't know what to make of the the case numbers as it can fluctuate strictly with test availability and number given.

For Texas, Houston in particular hasn't been doing enough testing, so I feel lost trying to figure out where we are at. Hopefully the Federal health teams leaving was a good sign that we have this thing somewhat under control.

I normally prefer the cooler temps but I'm really looking forward to the hot weather this week! Hopefully it helps put a damper on CV.
saber69
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Texas has tested about 71,000.

6800 positive

Link https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83
Matsui
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Carlo4
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The website says there will be a bed shortage of 36,000 on the national projected peak day.
Bruce Almighty
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"National projected peak day". That's one f'ed up holiday.
mike0305
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I see those numbers and I don't know what to believe.


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/houston-hasn-t-reported-surge-coronavirus-cases-its-hospitals-tell-n1175291

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Texas-is-behind-the-curve-on-releasing-timely-15179104.php

Houston has been quiet, but then there's Lina Hidalgo being quoted that hospitals are the best count due to lack of testing, and that they are seeing their patients rise exponentially? With 1300 cases and 20% hospitalization rate that's ~250 in hospitals in Houston currently and we would have had our first people hitting the hospital a week ago.

Hope we dodge the bullet and the lack of news is really is due to lack of the cases here.
aginlakeway
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rally-cap said:

The https://covid19.healthdata.org/ projections just got updated, and things changed pretty drastically -

The projected US peak date stayed the same, but the projected bed needs were nearly cut in half, and now look to be under the total bed count in the country, so no shortage. And the projected total death count came down to roughly 82,000.

The projected Texas peak date went from May 6 to April 19! And the projected bed needs went from roughly 20,000 total to just over 4000 total!

Hopefully these projections and trends continue to improve, and hopefully the real numbers follow suit.


The Texas news is excellent.
rally-cap
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Yeah, I must have misread that when I was making my post last night.

I'm cautiously optimistic at these numbers as well. I believe this is the model the White House has been using for a lot of their decision making, so hopefully if these numbers begin to come to fruition, we may start to see a return to "normal" sooner than later. I realize these are only educated guesses at what may ultimately happen, but I'm choosing to look on the brighter side of this and hoping for the best!
HouAggie2007
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So glad to see they adjusted the model for most major cities being under a stay at home mandate! That model look great
aginlakeway
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HouAggie2007 said:

So glad to see they adjusted the model for most major cities being under a stay at home mandate! That model look great


Yep. The mandate has most likely made a huge difference.
KlinkerAg11
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AG
Great news!

I still want to know how we adjust back into "normal" life. Without an established therapeutic the transition will be difficult to navigate.
AgLiving06
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rally-cap said:

The https://covid19.healthdata.org/ projections just got updated, and things changed pretty drastically -

The projected US peak date stayed the same, but the projected bed needs were nearly cut in half. And the projected total death count came down to roughly 82,000.

The projected Texas peak date went from May 6 to April 19! And the projected bed needs went from roughly 20,000 total to just over 4000 total!

Hopefully these projections and trends continue to improve, and hopefully the real numbers follow suit.

This website is showing something very different for April 4th.

This site is saying that 1755 people died this day.

Worldometer is saying that 1330 died.

That's a pretty substantial difference.

I'm curious what they do for April 5th, since Worldometer shows an even lower death rate.
Complete Idiot
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The restrictions on social gatherings and working from home, where possible, seems to have been effective and the reduction in predicted deaths due to this is amazing and great to see. If we continue to trend the right way I'm wondering 1) How far do we need to trend to open things back up a bit (maybe more of a Sweden approach at some point? just restrictions for those most at risk?) and 2) I'm now very curious about a second wave and how far we will go to prevent that. I know many are very fearful about long running economic impacts, at what point will the economic pressure force us into a second wave scenario, and would we lock down again as we are now if that second wave because too intense?

I'm not considering the fact we'll have a better treatment or vaccine in the timeframe needed to prevent the second wave. I think economic and social pressures to open things back up will come before we have ideal treatments ready - but perhaps with our improved knowledge and vigilance we can open back up a bit and not risk having an overwhelming number of people sick.

Very happy for what appears to be great news, now thinking down the road a bit - maybe too early for that.
Duncan Idaho
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You are already seeing people saying that these models that improved because of the actions we are taking, show that these actions aren't needed.

I fear the second wave
rally-cap
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AgLiving06 said:

rally-cap said:

The https://covid19.healthdata.org/ projections just got updated, and things changed pretty drastically -

The projected US peak date stayed the same, but the projected bed needs were nearly cut in half. And the projected total death count came down to roughly 82,000.

The projected Texas peak date went from May 6 to April 19! And the projected bed needs went from roughly 20,000 total to just over 4000 total!

Hopefully these projections and trends continue to improve, and hopefully the real numbers follow suit.

This website is showing something very different for April 4th.

This site is saying that 1755 people died this day.

Worldometer is saying that 1330 died.

That's a pretty substantial difference.

I'm curious what they do for April 5th, since Worldometer shows an even lower death rate.
Worldometer has had to adjust their numbers several times over the last few weeks. Countries and states have had issues reporting numbers, and so the reported numbers were off. I wouldn't be surprised if the difference in numbers is a reporting issue, or a timing issue. Worldometer works off GMT time, so every country's "day" is the same. So the covid19.healtdata may be working off of a more US centered timeline, which may cause a difference in day to day reporting numbers.
Old Buffalo
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Right, but it's still significantly different enough that it calls into question the validity/assumptions of the model itself. A projection of 1700 versus actual of 1300 is a significant margin of error. Additionally, the site predicted cumulative deaths of 10,500 yesterday and actual cumulative was around 9,500.

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
HotardAg07
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Been plotting a graph over Birx's graph she showed of the IHME model just to track how it's been doing. We'll find out soon if yesterday's data point was just some blip or a trend. My guess is, based on how tightly our death curve has hugged the real curve, it was a blip. Nate Silver suggested it may be a "day of the week" phenomenon, where totals may lag over the weekends and peak in the middle of the week. Who knows.
Aust Ag
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Complete Idiot said:

The restrictions on social gatherings and working from home, where possible, seems to have been effective and the reduction in predicted deaths due to this is amazing and great to see. If we continue to trend the right way I'm wondering 1) How far do we need to trend to open things back up a bit (maybe more of a Sweden approach at some point? just restrictions for those most at risk?) and 2) I'm now very curious about a second wave and how far we will go to prevent that. I know many are very fearful about long running economic impacts, at what point will the economic pressure force us into a second wave scenario, and would we lock down again as we are now if that second wave because too intense?

I'm not considering the fact we'll have a better treatment or vaccine in the timeframe needed to prevent the second wave. I think economic and social pressures to open things back up will come before we have ideal treatments ready - but perhaps with our improved knowledge and vigilance we can open back up a bit and not risk having an overwhelming number of people sick.

Very happy for what appears to be great news, now thinking down the road a bit - maybe too early for that.
Good well thought out post, and no...not too early to think about all this. I was thinking about all this today. At some point, in a few weeks, the numbers will start to down quickly. Then what? People are going to see that and wonder why they're still cooped up at home. Pressure to open up will get intense at that point.
PJYoung
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AG
Yeah the Sunday totals especially have been known to dip. And not just in this country.
 
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