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Seven Costanza
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In reply to BlackGoldAg2011 • 8:58a, 8/8/20
AG
BlackGoldAg2011 said:
RandyAg98 said:
Just goes to show you can make statistics look however you want if you are creative.

A man asks a mathematician, an engineer, and a statistician what 2+2 is.
The mathematician quickly announces that it is exactly 4.0
The engineer tells him it is between 3.9 and 4.1 but that range should be close enough to be useful.
The statistician closes the door, draws the curtains and dims the light and asks "what do you want it to be?"


There was a news story the other day about woke Twitter saying that 2+2=4 is a cultural construct created by Western Imperialists.
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BiochemAg97
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In reply to Seven Costanza • 9:31a, 8/8/20
AG
Seven Costanza said:
BlackGoldAg2011 said:
RandyAg98 said:
Just goes to show you can make statistics look however you want if you are creative.

A man asks a mathematician, an engineer, and a statistician what 2+2 is.
The mathematician quickly announces that it is exactly 4.0
The engineer tells him it is between 3.9 and 4.1 but that range should be close enough to be useful.
The statistician closes the door, draws the curtains and dims the light and asks "what do you want it to be?"


There was a news story the other day about woke Twitter saying that 2+2=4 is a cultural construct created by Western Imperialists.
II + II = IV would be western (particularly Roman) imperialism. However, 2+2=4 is Hindu-Arabic or Indo-Arabic numerals. Actually started in India and spread through the middles East and then Europe in the Middle Ages during the time of the crusades. So, arguably, 2+2=4 was spread by Persian empire and possibly the moorish invasion of Europe although that initially occurred a little earlier than the Arabic numbers taking hold in Europe.

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fullback44
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In reply to BowSowy • 4:16p, 8/8/20
AG
BowSowy said:
fullback44 said:
So really we shouldn't be wearing a mask.. mask raise your chances according to,that study
Something tells me no argument is going to change your opinion on this topic
I already had Covid.. it wasn't anywhere close to the flu.. I had the flu last year for the first time in 10 years.. 3 days totally on my ass. Covid .. I broke out in a rash on my chest, legs were itchey.. worked out on the family ranch and ran 3 miles a day w Covid ... I'm beginning to question what this is all about.
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Tabasco
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In reply to BiochemAg97 • 10:43p, 8/8/20
AG
BiochemAg97 said:
Seven Costanza said:
BlackGoldAg2011 said:
RandyAg98 said:
Just goes to show you can make statistics look however you want if you are creative.

A man asks a mathematician, an engineer, and a statistician what 2+2 is.
The mathematician quickly announces that it is exactly 4.0
The engineer tells him it is between 3.9 and 4.1 but that range should be close enough to be useful.
The statistician closes the door, draws the curtains and dims the light and asks "what do you want it to be?"


There was a news story the other day about woke Twitter saying that 2+2=4 is a cultural construct created by Western Imperialists.
II + II = IV would be western (particularly Roman) imperialism. However, 2+2=4 is Hindu-Arabic or Indo-Arabic numerals. Actually started in India and spread through the middles East and then Europe in the Middle Ages during the time of the crusades. So, arguably, 2+2=4 was spread by Persian empire and possibly the moorish invasion of Europe although that initially occurred a little earlier than the Arabic numbers taking hold in Europe.

Bro, only on Texags lol (hat tip)
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KidDoc
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In reply to fullback44 • 12:09p, 8/9/20
AG
fullback44 said:
BowSowy said:
fullback44 said:
So really we shouldn't be wearing a mask.. mask raise your chances according to,that study
Something tells me no argument is going to change your opinion on this topic
I already had Covid.. it wasn't anywhere close to the flu.. I had the flu last year for the first time in 10 years.. 3 days totally on my ass. Covid .. I broke out in a rash on my chest, legs were itchey.. worked out on the family ranch and ran 3 miles a day w Covid ... I'm beginning to question what this is all about.
Glad you got well!

It is really all about protecting the high risk population of > 60 years of age or people with rare conditions. That is what public policy should be focused on IMO.

Flu & RSV are much more dangerous in the population I treat but we don't shut down schools & day cares and mask up for those.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Aust Ag
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In reply to KidDoc • 12:46p, 8/9/20
AG
It is really all about protecting the high risk population of > 60 years of age or people with rare conditions. That is what public policy should be focused on IMO.

Geez, I remember hearing this around early May and thought this was going to be the general though-process moving forward...I don't think I've heard this in 2 months now. What happened? It made total sense.
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AggieKeith15
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In reply to Aust Ag • 1:09a, 8/10/20
AG
Fear.
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DadHammer
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In reply to Aust Ag • 6:00a, 8/10/20
AG
From flatten the curve
To
Hospitalizations
To
Newly infected
To
"We don't know the long term effects"

Media will never stop Until their agenda is met.

Awful
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FrioAg 00
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In reply to DadHammer • 7:21a, 8/10/20
AG
Which will either be 11/4 or four years later.
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Skillet Shot
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4:04p, 8/10/20
Houston area continues to improve. Hopefully 7% positivity rate continues to fall.












Wonder when they drop the severity level.
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DadHammer
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In reply to Skillet Shot • 4:05p, 8/10/20
AG
Houston is improving drastically.

Hospitalizations are about 33% of the peak. Covid is burning through pretty quickly. Wait for the last week of August when it's basically gone.

Maybe then it will be reported as positive? Maybe it's kept at severe to keep people masking up and being safer than normal for longer. Let's hope that's why.
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Cyp0111
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In reply to DadHammer • 4:07p, 8/10/20
Houston did a good job of slowing this thing. It's the gov't and population working together. Masks and social distancing works.
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Keegan99
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In reply to Skillet Shot • 4:10p, 8/10/20
AG
If the situation a month ago and the situation today are both "red", then the scale is not worth a damn.
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Fitch
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In reply to DadHammer • 4:24p, 8/10/20
AG
DadHammer said:
Houston is improving drastically.

Hospitalizations are about 33% of the peak. Covid is burning through pretty quickly. Wait for the last week of August when it's basically gone.

Maybe then it will be reported as positive? Maybe it's kept at severe to keep people masking up and being safer than normal for longer. Let's hope that's why.


Houston will be back to May levels by end of August. It will be far from gone, but hopefully kept manageable.

Given what I'm seeing in the marketplace and observing dynamics across 9 states, we're going to be living with some distorted reality for the next 9-12 months. Wouldn't be surprised to have some permanent vestiges when this is all said and done.
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J. Walter Weatherman
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In reply to Cyp0111 • 4:24p, 8/10/20
Cyp0111 said:
Houston did a good job of slowing this thing. It's the gov't and population working together. Masks and social distancing works.


Not jamming 60k people next to eachother in a protest helps too.
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Skillet Shot
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In reply to Cyp0111 • 4:29p, 8/10/20
Cyp0111 said:
Houston did a good job of slowing this thing. It's the gov't and population working together. Masks and social distancing works.
It is difficult to identify the mechanism for the virus slowing.

  • Virus running it's course after massive protests; approaching herd immunity/viral burnout
  • Closing of bars
  • Mask mandate

I'm hoping it's option 1. There are ~86,500 confirmed cases in Harris County with a population of 4.713 million yielding 2% infection rate. If there are 5-10 times more cases than reported, then the county may be near the 10-20% infection rate, which some have argued is the threshold for viral burnout/herd immunity due to T-cell response.
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beerad12man
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In reply to Skillet Shot • 4:34p, 8/10/20
AG
Skillet Shot said:
Cyp0111 said:
Houston did a good job of slowing this thing. It's the gov't and population working together. Masks and social distancing works.
It is difficult to identify the mechanism for the virus slowing.

  • Virus running it's course after massive protests; approaching herd immunity/viral burnout
  • Closing of bars
  • Mask mandate

I'm hoping it's option 1. There are ~86,500 confirmed cases in Harris County with a population of 4.713 million yielding 2% infection rate. If there are 5-10 times more cases than reported, then the county may be near the 10-20% infection rate, which some have argued is the threshold for viral burnout/herd immunity due to T-cell response.
Texas in general, 18.7% potentially. Which can explain the big reason why we hit our quick peak, and then have begun the slow decline all over.

Now, some will say you still need some social distancing and masks to make the 15-25% number work. That may be, but the higher you get that number, the less mitigation you need. Here's to hoping there is ZERO permanent vestiges of this crap soon, unlike Fitch's prediction. HEck this thing might be really close to over in 2-3 months. With 25-30% infected, you may need very, very little mitigation. And maybe none at 40-50%. Really tough to say as no one has got that high yet. NYC seems to be around 30% and they are all but done. I'm sure they are wearing masks, but I'd say the 30% number is the far, far bigger factor as to why they are done.

https://covid19-projections.com/us-tx
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Fitch
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In reply to Skillet Shot • 4:38p, 8/10/20
AG
Skillet Shot said:
Cyp0111 said:
Houston did a good job of slowing this thing. It's the gov't and population working together. Masks and social distancing works.
It is difficult to identify the mechanism for the virus slowing.

  • Virus running it's course after massive protests; approaching herd immunity/viral burnout
  • Closing of bars
  • Mask mandate

I'm hoping it's option 1. There are ~86,500 confirmed cases in Harris County with a population of 4.713 million yielding 2% infection rate. If there are 5-10 times more cases than reported, then the county may be near the 10-20% infection rate, which some have argued is the threshold for viral burnout/herd immunity due to T-cell response.


We're not approaching burnout or broad population immunity. The reports that posit that idea come with a rather large asterisk of sustaining social distancing and control measures perpetually until the bug dies out because of lack of hosts.

We are (thankfully) seeing the effects of control measures and personal responsibility kicking in after the triple whammy of Memorial Day shenanigans, bar reopenings and protests.
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cone
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In reply to Fitch • 4:41p, 8/10/20
AG
what happened to all those July 4th shenanigans

maybe it was never about one off weekend shenanigans
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beerad12man
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In reply to Fitch • 4:43p, 8/10/20
AG
Fitch said:
Skillet Shot said:
Cyp0111 said:
Houston did a good job of slowing this thing. It's the gov't and population working together. Masks and social distancing works.
It is difficult to identify the mechanism for the virus slowing.

  • Virus running it's course after massive protests; approaching herd immunity/viral burnout
  • Closing of bars
  • Mask mandate

I'm hoping it's option 1. There are ~86,500 confirmed cases in Harris County with a population of 4.713 million yielding 2% infection rate. If there are 5-10 times more cases than reported, then the county may be near the 10-20% infection rate, which some have argued is the threshold for viral burnout/herd immunity due to T-cell response.


We're not approaching burnout or broad population immunity. The reports that posit that idea come with a rather large asterisk of sustaining social distancing and control measures perpetually until the bug dies out because of lack of hosts.

We are (thankfully) seeing the effects of control measures and personal responsibility kicking in after the triple whammy of Memorial Day shenanigans, bar reopenings and protests.
And no one knows the exact amount of social distancing required for that. My guess is, very, very minimal mitigation required. Probably don't even need any state mandates. Natural fear from some, like you said, will be enough for a while.

So NYC, a population of 18 million, isn't losing 5.6 people per day for nearly 3 months now simply because of masks and social distancing. It's clear as day it has far, far more to do with having 30% of the population over this. Masks might help a bit at this point, but that's factor number 1 without a doubt in my mind.

We don't need 60/70% to have had this disease with it to become a nothing burger. Especially with how fearful some are. The vast majority of us can get back to normal life with 20-25%, and especially at 30% it appears, and the elderly/high risk folks that are more scared can continue taking precaution if they so choose. My guess is that's more than enough.
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Keegan99
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In reply to Fitch • 4:43p, 8/10/20
AG
No. Burnout occurs at roughly 20%.

As to control measures...








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DadHammer
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In reply to Fitch • 4:47p, 8/10/20
AG
That Is incorrect.

By basically gone, that means no longer pandemic status. Do you the Consider the flue to be gone when not in season. Yes most people do. It will never be zero, the flue will never be zero.

The herd immunity number is between 20-30%. There is immunity in the population already that has been proven.

Distancing and masks help some but mostly it has burned through as all viruses do. The riots helped to kick it off.
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Fitch
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In reply to beerad12man • 4:53p, 8/10/20
AG
Would like to think the same but talking to counterparts in our other offices and looking at the economic shake down still looming, I just don't see a realistic "return to normal" nationwide this year.

Personally been to every gulf state, Colorado and New York over the last few months. Got offices in Atlanta and Los Angeles, and optics into 10M square feet of office & retail space and ~35,000 office workers in those markets.

Lots of pundits seem to ignore these new policies (and just plain old fear) have become ingrained in day to day life for some, to say nothing of the politicization of the issue, of which both major parties are equally complicit. Makes for a fractured future.
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Fitch
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In reply to DadHammer • 5:08p, 8/10/20
AG
Those aren't facts, those are hopes wrapped in a package of confirmation bias (with respect).

There is certainly hope in cross-resistance and T-cell memory, but the prevalence and moment of action has not been resolved. A vaccine, even with booster shots, will get us further down the road.

Burn out / herd immunity are macro-level dynamics. Yes, we will get there. Hopefully at a lower percentage than epidemiologists have historically modeled, and there is a growing school of thought trying to understand what that means and why/how. By no means is that the settled science. A large gathering of unexposed individuals carries a super-spreader risk just as it did in March when all the **** hit the fan.
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Fitch
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In reply to cone • 5:32p, 8/10/20
AG
cone said:
what happened to all those July 4th shenanigans

maybe it was never about one off weekend shenanigans


My thought - COVID in Texas before Memorial Day was a nothingburger. No mass mask policies, generally very short reopening timelines, fear induced anxiety have way to "this is bull****" and Memorial Day 3-day weekend parties saw no personal mitigation actions...and bars stayed open the full next month.

In June I remember having three conversations with three different bartenders in Houston who all said they got packed shoulder to shoulder at night.

Protests were obviously egregious flouting of common sense and public trust, but there were maybe 3 or 4 of those in Houston (to pick the one I'm familiar with). Bad idea, but net net not the same impact as multi-day holidays and drinking out statewide.

July 4th (one day) could have been the same but the headlines were full of doom and gloom with legit case explosion by that point. Bars were closed. People adjusted and took it seriously.

IIRC you also thought it wouldn't have the same multiplier effect given epidemic growth had already been kick started. What's your read?
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Fitch
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In reply to beerad12man • 5:53p, 8/10/20
AG
In general, your thoughts align with a retrospective study that modeled 10-20% population burnout for Spain, UK, Portugal and Belgium (below). Actions like distancing, masks, inherent population cross-immunity, etc, when taken together have the effect of lowering the herd immunity threshold required for this virus to burnout. Remove the distancing action or lessen it's adherence and the threshold changes.

My own thoughts on this - the effect of all of these adjustments and cross-immunities in play at the same time is materially greater than the sum of the discrete effects of any one in isolation.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v1
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Keegan99
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In reply to Fitch • 6:10p, 8/10/20
AG
The explain Sweden. No masks. Minimal social distancing. Still burnout at ~20%.
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Complete Idiot
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In reply to Keegan99 • 6:23p, 8/10/20
Keegan99 said:
The explain Sweden. No masks. Minimal social distancing. Still burnout at ~20%.


In a chart you shared yourself, about 20% of Swedes participated in mask wearing and someone else shared their massive drop in public movement, many stayed home. Don't talk in absolutes.
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Fitch
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In reply to Keegan99 • 6:42p, 8/10/20
AG
Sweden is an excellent question mark. I think it's safe to say everyone wants to understand that situation. I at least haven't found any consensus. Opinions seem to diverge between seroprevalence, cross-reactive immunity and societal characteristics that make them a novel case study. I don't think anyone is saying they're doing nothing differently than 8 months ago, though.

I'm kinda back here wondering why it has to be any one thing. Maybe it's a mix of indigenous genetics, geographic latitude, healthy living, social standards, new policy adoption, modern healthcare and small population centers positively interfering with each other. Hard to quantify which works without the others.
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BiochemAg97
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In reply to Fitch • 6:50p, 8/10/20
AG
Fitch said:
Skillet Shot said:
Cyp0111 said:
Houston did a good job of slowing this thing. It's the gov't and population working together. Masks and social distancing works.
It is difficult to identify the mechanism for the virus slowing.

  • Virus running it's course after massive protests; approaching herd immunity/viral burnout
  • Closing of bars
  • Mask mandate

I'm hoping it's option 1. There are ~86,500 confirmed cases in Harris County with a population of 4.713 million yielding 2% infection rate. If there are 5-10 times more cases than reported, then the county may be near the 10-20% infection rate, which some have argued is the threshold for viral burnout/herd immunity due to T-cell response.


We're not approaching burnout or broad population immunity. The reports that posit that idea come with a rather large asterisk of sustaining social distancing and control measures perpetually until the bug dies out because of lack of hosts.

We are (thankfully) seeing the effects of control measures and personal responsibility kicking in after the triple whammy of Memorial Day shenanigans, bar reopenings and protests.
Burn out is really just pushing R below 1 by decreasing the susceptible population, possibly with measures in place.

For the vaccinated diseases, we talk about herd immunity at ~95%. First, many of those are far more infectious, so R0 is considerably higher. Second, we talk about outbreaks of tens of individuals at a time. A school has a dozen kids with measles and everyone goes crazy. 2019 was a measles outbreak with <1300 cases in the US.

For COVID, I don't think we need that level of reduction to get back to normal. We already start with a lower R, and clearly the current combination of masks, no bars, and already exposed population has us well below R=1. As the level of immunity increases, the masks and other factors will have less of an effect. 50% reduction from 2 is big, 50% reduction from 0.5 isn't as important.

But what is the goal?

If the goal is a low level of infection without significant additional burden on hospitals, maybe we can achieve that with R=0.9 after we bring the number down, or maybe 0.7 or 0.5.

If the goal is tens of infections per year, we are going to need to get closer to that "herd immunity as a function of R0" metric that everyone pegged at ~70% early on. And really, the only way to get there from 20% is to continue to have a low level of infection or wait until a vaccine and force everyone to get it.
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Skillet Shot
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In reply to Complete Idiot • 8:01p, 8/10/20
Complete Idiot said:
Keegan99 said:
The explain Sweden. No masks. Minimal social distancing. Still burnout at ~20%.


In a chart you shared yourself, about 20% of Swedes participated in mask wearing and someone else shared their massive drop in public movement, many stayed home. Don't talk in absolutes.


Are you suggesting that 20% of a population wearing masks are sufficient to stop the virus at 20% infection rate in the population?
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Complete Idiot
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In reply to Skillet Shot • 8:29p, 8/10/20
Skillet Shot said:
Complete Idiot said:
Keegan99 said:
The explain Sweden. No masks. Minimal social distancing. Still burnout at ~20%.


In a chart you shared yourself, about 20% of Swedes participated in mask wearing and someone else shared their massive drop in public movement, many stayed home. Don't talk in absolutes.


Are you suggesting that 20% of a population wearing masks are sufficient to stop the virus at 20% infection rate in the population?


No, I am saying "no masks" != 20% wearing masks

It wasn't related to my posts, but no one is saying 20% infection rate stops the virus. Burnout seems to be used interchangeably with herd immunity here, and that means when new cases drop to a low level but not zero
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DadHammer
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In reply to Fitch • 9:30p, 8/10/20
AG
I am not following your point here. Why do you not think it's 20-30 %? Most data we have seen here suggests that range. It doesn't mean no infections. The numbers in Houston aren't even high enough to be considered a pandemic anymore are they? We are already down to 33% of the peak rate of hospitalizations. There have been no reinfections that I have seen to date. If there are any they are tiny to ignorable numbers so far. Number of infections mean nothing if the hospitalizations falling substantially. Just look at NY's numbers, they have obviously passed herd immunity long ago.
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beerad12man
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In reply to BiochemAg97 • 9:34p, 8/10/20
AG
BiochemAg97 said:
Fitch said:
Skillet Shot said:
Cyp0111 said:
Houston did a good job of slowing this thing. It's the gov't and population working together. Masks and social distancing works.
It is difficult to identify the mechanism for the virus slowing.

  • Virus running it's course after massive protests; approaching herd immunity/viral burnout
  • Closing of bars
  • Mask mandate

I'm hoping it's option 1. There are ~86,500 confirmed cases in Harris County with a population of 4.713 million yielding 2% infection rate. If there are 5-10 times more cases than reported, then the county may be near the 10-20% infection rate, which some have argued is the threshold for viral burnout/herd immunity due to T-cell response.


We're not approaching burnout or broad population immunity. The reports that posit that idea come with a rather large asterisk of sustaining social distancing and control measures perpetually until the bug dies out because of lack of hosts.

We are (thankfully) seeing the effects of control measures and personal responsibility kicking in after the triple whammy of Memorial Day shenanigans, bar reopenings and protests.
Burn out is really just pushing R below 1 by decreasing the susceptible population, possibly with measures in place.

For the vaccinated diseases, we talk about herd immunity at ~95%. First, many of those are far more infectious, so R0 is considerably higher. Second, we talk about outbreaks of tens of individuals at a time. A school has a dozen kids with measles and everyone goes crazy. 2019 was a measles outbreak with <1300 cases in the US.

For COVID, I don't think we need that level of reduction to get back to normal. We already start with a lower R, and clearly the current combination of masks, no bars, and already exposed population has us well below R=1. As the level of immunity increases, the masks and other factors will have less of an effect. 50% reduction from 2 is big, 50% reduction from 0.5 isn't as important.

But what is the goal?

If the goal is a low level of infection without significant additional burden on hospitals, maybe we can achieve that with R=0.9 after we bring the number down, or maybe 0.7 or 0.5.

If the goal is tens of infections per year, we are going to need to get closer to that "herd immunity as a function of R0" metric that everyone pegged at ~70% early on. And really, the only way to get there from 20% is to continue to have a low level of infection or wait until a vaccine and force everyone to get it.


We'll never need to force everyone to get it. 30+% of the country will have likely had it by the time a vaccine is mass produced, and 50-60% of the population will line up the first week to get a vaccine. Add that to the number of a asymptomatic People and those that just don't get that affected by it? This becomes less than the flu

I don't see a vaccine that gives me a better than 99.9% chance so I'm going to let those who need it get it first. By the time it's my turn I doubt it will even be necessary
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beerad12man
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In reply to Complete Idiot • 9:38p, 8/10/20
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Complete Idiot said:
Keegan99 said:
The explain Sweden. No masks. Minimal social distancing. Still burnout at ~20%.


In a chart you shared yourself, about 20% of Swedes participated in mask wearing and someone else shared their massive drop in public movement, many stayed home. Don't talk in absolutes.


Similar to vaccines not needing 100%, more than 20% will keep wearing masks here no matter what for a while at least.

No mandates needed. It all works out for those that don't want to. Plenty of those still scared will social distance. Again, no reason to ask those that choose not to any more. We are really close to that point if not already there
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