What did you expect, the virus is contagious. But overall the numbers still are falling off a cliff

I think the uk strain has been here a while, good thing our vaccines are out pacing infections.

State-level Trends






Regional Trends





Trauma Service Area Trends

Keegan99 said:

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The prevalence of rhinovirus is curious. It hasn't disappeared like the others, and has maintained its usual seasonal trend. So is it impervious to the "mitigation"? And if so, how? Or has something other than "mitigation" out-competed the other viruses?

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Would wearing masks (dirty ones) increase rhinovirus?

The latest Dallas County Summary:

https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/C-19-risklevelmgmt/022021-DallasCounty-COVID-19-Hospitalization-Data.pdf

Statewide Trends





Regional Trends







Trauma Service Areas

Great graphs as always and glad to see everything falling off a cliff.

Remove our masks now Abbott!

There does seem to be a little bump in deaths in the last week which doesn't make sense, so maybe we are seeing a bit of the reporting lag from the winter storm.

Wonder how much the deep freeze effects those graphs. Saw an article saying that Austin was discussing going from phase 4 to phase 3 prior to the freeze, but the freeze generated a hole in the data and since they are relying on 7 day moving average it will be delayed.

Honestly, given the habit in Austin, I think it is just the latest excuse to extend the covid restrictions.

amercer said:

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The next couple weeks should be interesting.

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Not picking on you amercer...but I am so sick of hearing this. We have been hearing "the next two weeks" since March 2020.

I don't really agree that the new case trend has "slowed down". The 7-day average is just about the same trendline as before the winter storm. Just looks like it "increased" because of lack of reporting.

RandyAg98 said:

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amercer said:

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The next couple weeks should be interesting.

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Not picking on you amercer...but I am so sick of hearing this. We have been hearing "the next two weeks" since March 2020.

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That's fair, but saying that deaths are a couple weeks behind cases, isn't exactly the same as "two more weeks"

And in this situation it's maybe very different, because we might see a real divergence in the correlation between cases and deaths.

RandyAg98 said:

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amercer said:

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The next couple weeks should be interesting.

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Not picking on you amercer...but I am so sick of hearing this. We have been hearing "the next two weeks" since March 2020.

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At this point, none of this is interesting to me.

I feel like this became a hobby to follow for some. I get it, some are just hoping for it to trend towards showing an end in sight so they can go back to normal. Personally, I'm already living life as close to normal as the dictators that make the rules will allow.

beerad12man said:

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RandyAg98 said:

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amercer said:

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The next couple weeks should be interesting.

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Not picking on you amercer...but I am so sick of hearing this. We have been hearing "the next two weeks" since March 2020.

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At this point, none of this is interesting to me.

I feel like this became a hobby to follow for some. I get it, some are just hoping for it to trend towards showing an end in sight so they can go back to normal. Personally, I'm already living life as close to normal as the dictators that make the rules will allow.

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I mean that's nice and all. Where I am there are still a ton of restrictions, and it's all about the case rate. Plus I'd like to go to sporting events or travel to Europe at some point, and that's not exactly like walking into a grocery store without a mask and seeing if anyone calls you on it.

amercer said:

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It's an open question if we are seeing a case rebound or just a data anomaly. I suppose if anyone is bored they could see if the wild swings in the national data match wild swings in the states hardest hit by the winter storm.

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I mean...more than half the country was basically shut down last week right (Gulf Coast, Midwest and even the Northeast slowed down)

RandyAg98 said:

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amercer said:

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The next couple weeks should be interesting.

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Not picking on you amercer...but I am so sick of hearing this. We have been hearing "the next two weeks" since March 2020.

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I'm sick of hearing the **** it crowd complaining about patience and data driven decision making. Whether you remember or not, I remember in June and early July people were talking about how we shouldn't care about cases because the instantaneous death rate of COVID cases had dropped to zero. I said deaths will follow in short order. Que the "just two more weeks" meme, i.e. "I'm done thinking doomer". And then deaths started rising quite quickly shortly after that. I also remember, there's only 1,000 cases in NYC why are we overreacting bit and the rise in cases from Thanksgiving to Christmas. The truth is these events play out on too long a time horizon for the attention span of a message board. That's the only reason "just two more weeks" became an effective talking point. Ignore the projections and the data (too impatient for that) all that matters is I am ok right now is basically the point. I still firmly believe if people had a bit more of an intellectual, less populist approach America would be looking at 300,000-400,000 dead instead of 600,000 with very few changes. All it would have taken is some self-responsibility and some thoughtfulness. Mocking all the data that's inconvenient to you with "Just two more weeks" is an example of the mentality of (on a nationwide scale) why that didn't happen. I still interacted with friends and family, just in more private settings when I knew I didn't have the virus. I still traveled to places, except they were all outdoors like national and state parks. You can still live your life, but small adaptations go a long way.

I am very much looking forward to the end of this ordeal. It'll be about three months and we'll be finished. Now that my grandmother are vaccinated, I am certainly less worried overall, but we still need to let the data clean up in Austin before we make decisions that have systemic effects. Cases can easly rise again if people act like it's 2019. That won't be true in a few months, but it is true still now.

SouthTex99 said:

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"2 more weeks"

I think in 2 weeks you're going to start seeing the first trickle of large regions with virtually no positive tests. It will be a sight to behold.

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I think cases will continue to go down but "virtually no positive tests" is probably not a realistic goal. Lockdown enthusiasts will want a goal of zero risk, but covid will likely be around a long time. The goal needs to be vaccine availability. Once everyone has had a chance to accept or decline vaccination, it's time to get back to normal.

Live Nation CEO said yesterday he expects large scale concerts at 75-100% capacity by mid-summer. Monday, British govt. set a timeline that large music events in U.K. (like Reading and Leeds) could resume at 100% beginning June 21.