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Last: 2 yr ago by AggieUSMC
What did you expect, the virus is contagious. But overall the numbers still are falling off a cliff
I think the uk strain has been here a while, good thing our vaccines are out pacing infections.
State-level Trends
Regional Trends
Trauma Service Area Trends
Regional Trends
Trauma Service Area Trends
This chart from the North Texas hospitals on the prevalence of other viruses just floors me.
The prevalence of rhinovirus is curious. It hasn't disappeared like the others, and has maintained its usual seasonal trend. So is it impervious to the "mitigation"? And if so, how? Or has something other than "mitigation" out-competed the other viruses?
It's the 'common cold' and is endemic, vs. the frequency of the others in any given year. Also, it's quite commonly spread among kids who are largely now engaged in their 'normal' activities vs. other population groups (kids tend to get a version of it something like 4-10 times a year I believe).
Would wearing masks (dirty ones) increase rhinovirus?Keegan99 said:
The prevalence of rhinovirus is curious. It hasn't disappeared like the others, and has maintained its usual seasonal trend. So is it impervious to the "mitigation"? And if so, how? Or has something other than "mitigation" out-competed the other viruses?
Haven't been at work since Thursday, but our covid census at that time had dropped to about 25% of our peak. Granted, we had a massive peak as a % of capacity so we still have quite a few cases. But it is a little bit different feeling walking into work now. Biggest concern for us now is trying to replace staff who went off to do agency contracts. Really worried about what next month will look like when we start really losing our our RAC people.
Statewide Trends
Regional Trends
Trauma Service Areas
Regional Trends
Trauma Service Areas
Great graphs as always and glad to see everything falling off a cliff.
Remove our masks now Abbott!
Remove our masks now Abbott!
It looks like the sharp decline in cases has paused. The next couple weeks should be interesting. Hospitalization and deaths lag, so even if cases don't continue to decline, deaths should. And with the most vulnerable getting mostly vaccinated, deaths may not go up again even if we see another spike in cases.
But until cases get down to 5k a day a lot of restrictions will stay in place. Need those to keep falling.
But until cases get down to 5k a day a lot of restrictions will stay in place. Need those to keep falling.
There does seem to be a little bump in deaths in the last week which doesn't make sense, so maybe we are seeing a bit of the reporting lag from the winter storm.
Wonder how much the deep freeze effects those graphs. Saw an article saying that Austin was discussing going from phase 4 to phase 3 prior to the freeze, but the freeze generated a hole in the data and since they are relying on 7 day moving average it will be delayed.
Honestly, given the habit in Austin, I think it is just the latest excuse to extend the covid restrictions.
Honestly, given the habit in Austin, I think it is just the latest excuse to extend the covid restrictions.
Not picking on you amercer...but I am so sick of hearing this. We have been hearing "the next two weeks" since March 2020.amercer said:
The next couple weeks should be interesting.
I don't really agree that the new case trend has "slowed down". The 7-day average is just about the same trendline as before the winter storm. Just looks like it "increased" because of lack of reporting.
RandyAg98 said:Not picking on you amercer...but I am so sick of hearing this. We have been hearing "the next two weeks" since March 2020.amercer said:
The next couple weeks should be interesting.
That's fair, but saying that deaths are a couple weeks behind cases, isn't exactly the same as "two more weeks"
And in this situation it's maybe very different, because we might see a real divergence in the correlation between cases and deaths.
At this point, none of this is interesting to me.RandyAg98 said:Not picking on you amercer...but I am so sick of hearing this. We have been hearing "the next two weeks" since March 2020.amercer said:
The next couple weeks should be interesting.
I feel like this became a hobby to follow for some. I get it, some are just hoping for it to trend towards showing an end in sight so they can go back to normal. Personally, I'm already living life as close to normal as the dictators that make the rules will allow.
It's an open question if we are seeing a case rebound or just a data anomaly. I suppose if anyone is bored they could see if the wild swings in the national data match wild swings in the states hardest hit by the winter storm.
beerad12man said:At this point, none of this is interesting to me.RandyAg98 said:Not picking on you amercer...but I am so sick of hearing this. We have been hearing "the next two weeks" since March 2020.amercer said:
The next couple weeks should be interesting.
I feel like this became a hobby to follow for some. I get it, some are just hoping for it to trend towards showing an end in sight so they can go back to normal. Personally, I'm already living life as close to normal as the dictators that make the rules will allow.
I mean that's nice and all. Where I am there are still a ton of restrictions, and it's all about the case rate. Plus I'd like to go to sporting events or travel to Europe at some point, and that's not exactly like walking into a grocery store without a mask and seeing if anyone calls you on it.
I fully recognize the frustration associated with 'two more weeks' but there's a big difference between 'stay home and/or wear a mask for two weeks and this thing will go away completely' in April 2020 and '<insert data changing event such as this winter storm> just happened and it will be interesting to see what happens in two weeks' in February 2021.
The reality is we typically don't know jack about how any given event changes actual spread (not to mention any differences between actual spread and reported cases) and we have to wait at least two weeks for the data to give us any indication simply due to incubation period.
Thanks again for the updated charts!
The reality is we typically don't know jack about how any given event changes actual spread (not to mention any differences between actual spread and reported cases) and we have to wait at least two weeks for the data to give us any indication simply due to incubation period.
Thanks again for the updated charts!
I mean...more than half the country was basically shut down last week right (Gulf Coast, Midwest and even the Northeast slowed down)amercer said:
It's an open question if we are seeing a case rebound or just a data anomaly. I suppose if anyone is bored they could see if the wild swings in the national data match wild swings in the states hardest hit by the winter storm.
RandyAg98 said:Not picking on you amercer...but I am so sick of hearing this. We have been hearing "the next two weeks" since March 2020.amercer said:
The next couple weeks should be interesting.
I'm sick of hearing the **** it crowd complaining about patience and data driven decision making. Whether you remember or not, I remember in June and early July people were talking about how we shouldn't care about cases because the instantaneous death rate of COVID cases had dropped to zero. I said deaths will follow in short order. Que the "just two more weeks" meme, i.e. "I'm done thinking doomer". And then deaths started rising quite quickly shortly after that. I also remember, there's only 1,000 cases in NYC why are we overreacting bit and the rise in cases from Thanksgiving to Christmas. The truth is these events play out on too long a time horizon for the attention span of a message board. That's the only reason "just two more weeks" became an effective talking point. Ignore the projections and the data (too impatient for that) all that matters is I am ok right now is basically the point. I still firmly believe if people had a bit more of an intellectual, less populist approach America would be looking at 300,000-400,000 dead instead of 600,000 with very few changes. All it would have taken is some self-responsibility and some thoughtfulness. Mocking all the data that's inconvenient to you with "Just two more weeks" is an example of the mentality of (on a nationwide scale) why that didn't happen. I still interacted with friends and family, just in more private settings when I knew I didn't have the virus. I still traveled to places, except they were all outdoors like national and state parks. You can still live your life, but small adaptations go a long way.
I am very much looking forward to the end of this ordeal. It'll be about three months and we'll be finished. Now that my grandmother are vaccinated, I am certainly less worried overall, but we still need to let the data clean up in Austin before we make decisions that have systemic effects. Cases can easly rise again if people act like it's 2019. That won't be true in a few months, but it is true still now.
If cases rise again it's just speeding us to the end. I'll care even less about cases once the vaccine is readily available to everyone.
You promise? Everything will be completely back to normal in June? The closed restaurants will reopen? People will get their service and hospitality jobs back and employees wil be back in the office? Movie theaters will be full with opening-day excitement and bands will be playing concerts at outdoor festivals and to full arenas? Families will be vacationing, airlines and hotels will be full?Quote:
I am very much looking forward to the end of this ordeal. It'll be about three months and we'll be finished.
No offense, but I think you're interpretation of "finished" is substantially smaller in scale than mine
SouthTex99 said:
"2 more weeks"
I think in 2 weeks you're going to start seeing the first trickle of large regions with virtually no positive tests. It will be a sight to behold.
I think cases will continue to go down but "virtually no positive tests" is probably not a realistic goal. Lockdown enthusiasts will want a goal of zero risk, but covid will likely be around a long time. The goal needs to be vaccine availability. Once everyone has had a chance to accept or decline vaccination, it's time to get back to normal.
Heard from a friend today who's family is now down with the rona after huddling up with friends last week after losing power...who now also have the the rona.
Just one story but not that surprising if we see a little bump from last week that trickles in through the next month. We're down a ton from the winter peak, but there's still a high level of spread happening out there, and the rapid deployment of vaccines remain the way out of this.
I tend to think Texas is back to normal course of business a month or two after the vaccine becomes publicly available to anyone that wants it in April or May... so July/August?
Just one story but not that surprising if we see a little bump from last week that trickles in through the next month. We're down a ton from the winter peak, but there's still a high level of spread happening out there, and the rapid deployment of vaccines remain the way out of this.
I tend to think Texas is back to normal course of business a month or two after the vaccine becomes publicly available to anyone that wants it in April or May... so July/August?
Fitch said:
Heard from a friend today who's family is now down with the rona after huddling up with friends last week after losing power...who now also have the the rona.
Just one story but not that surprising if we see a little bump from last week that trickles in through the next month. We're down a ton from the winter peak, but there's still a high level of spread happening out there, and the rapid deployment of vaccines remain the way out of this.
I tend to think Texas is back to normal course of business a month or two after the vaccine becomes publicly available to anyone that wants it in April or May... so July/August?
I tend to agree. However with the world debating if 1 dose of Pfizer or moderna is good enough and about delaying second dose to get more first doses, then We probably don't need to wait for people to get second doses before opening up. On the other hand, once it is available to all, it will still take some time to work through the demand. We need to get to anyone can get it and appointments are readily available. At that point, the bulk of those who want it will have gotten it.
Yeah, this all ain't ending until the vaccine is readily available. I too am thinking late summer, with schools having to make a somewhat "more fun" decision on whether to fully open (vs closing last year). I'm going to be pizzed though, if they make my 8 yr old go to school in Aug with a mask again.Fitch said:
Heard from a friend today who's family is now down with the rona after huddling up with friends last week after losing power...who now also have the the rona.
Just one story but not that surprising if we see a little bump from last week that trickles in through the next month. We're down a ton from the winter peak, but there's still a high level of spread happening out there, and the rapid deployment of vaccines remain the way out of this.
I tend to think Texas is back to normal course of business a month or two after the vaccine becomes publicly available to anyone that wants it in April or May... so July/August?
Good news to report, ACL posted on Twitter yesterday ""We can't wait to see you Oct. 1-3 & 8-10, 2021 back in Zilker Park. Until then, stay safe, take care of each other and sign up for updates below on all things ACL Fest."
Bold statement by ACL. Let's do it.
Live Nation CEO said yesterday he expects large scale concerts at 75-100% capacity by mid-summer. Monday, British govt. set a timeline that large music events in U.K. (like Reading and Leeds) could resume at 100% beginning June 21.
Looks like a coordinated effort by all the heavies to get the ball rolling at the same time. Good for them.
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