Hopefully never
True facism. I've made my list and will make those pay who have pushed this travesty.Philip J Fry said:
Golf courses closed? What in the heck man. Golf is the most spread out sport I've ever seen.
So if it is an average of 5 days from exposure to symptoms and an average of 14 days from symptoms to death, then the death rate today is reflective of the exposure rate around 19 days ago, or March 24th - 5 days after the governor's first executive order but still a week before ordering everything closed down.KidDoc said:Death is roughly 14 days from first symptoms but has a large variance. Likely 10-30 days.Section327Ag said:
Of the countries charted here, Portugal has the most impressive 'bend' in their curve. U.S. is probably 50% of where the trend line was headed 3 weeks ago. Although I've seen data on the average incubation period of 5 days from exposure to symptoms, I haven't seen the data on the average time between exposure and death so it isn't clear to me what the lag time is between exposure rate (impacted by social distancing and hygiene) and death rate (impacted by exposure rate and treatment efficacy) .
Throw in tennis courts too, ridiculous.Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:True facism. I've made my list and will make those pay who have pushed this travesty.Philip J Fry said:
Golf courses closed? What in the heck man. Golf is the most spread out sport I've ever seen.
It gets more complicated than that. I'm only posting confirmed cases, but I'm not going through the rigor of looking up when the tests were taken. There was a time when a significant portion of the tests were in pending.HouAggie2007 said:
Fry it would be interesting to see when each state went into lockdown, it's weird to me that they all follow the same line
yeah, that's was what I was implying, several times that monday data seemed a little sketchy.HotardAg07 said:
I've been graphing the daily deaths against the IHME model that Birx showed on the press conference a while ago, just to compare the data against a single point in time.
Surprised how well it's held up. Does seem like there's some weekend dips that catch back up on mid week reporting.
Germany & SK need to give some lessons on how to deal with novel pandemics.PJYoung said:
Old Buffalo said:
I think the issue is the vast definitions of a COVID-19 death among nations. I don't want to turn this into a political discussion thread, but we have been very liberal on labeling COVID-19 deaths so it's not exactly an apples to apples comparison.
https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/2nd-coronavirus-patient-dies-in-lehigh-valley-he-was-61-and-from-warren-county.htmlQuote:
He said the primary cause of the man's death was a head injury from a fall at home, but that the virus was listed as a contributing factor to his death.
I'm really not trying to argue the rights and wrongs of classification, I'm just pointing out that we have taken a broader classification of death than other countries.Quote:
"There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition, and let's say the virus caused you to go to the ICU [intensive care unit] and then have a heart or kidney problem. Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death. The intent is ... if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that."
Old Buffalo said:https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/2nd-coronavirus-patient-dies-in-lehigh-valley-he-was-61-and-from-warren-county.htmlQuote:
He said the primary cause of the man's death was a head injury from a fall at home, but that the virus was listed as a contributing factor to his death.I'm really not trying to argue the rights and wrongs of classification, I'm just pointing out that we have taken a broader classification of death than other countries.Quote:
"There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition, and let's say the virus caused you to go to the ICU [intensive care unit] and then have a heart or kidney problem. Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death. The intent is ... if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that."
As you can see above, one death that is counted is from a man in NJ who fell at his home sustaining head injuries. Would he have recovered without any complications of COVID-19? We're not sure - but regardless he is counted.
Problem is the hospitalization data from the covid tracking project is incomplete and inconsistent. Comparing that to the model is an awful comparison. Its like trying to gauge a RB's season total for yardage but only counting half the games and sometimes only counting plays that went over 20 yards.Keegan99 said:
PJYoung said:
Then there was this report from a medic who responded to 12 cardiac arrest calls in one day (he said the average pre covid was 2 to 3 for the week) and said all 12 had heavy covid-19 symptoms leading to their deaths and none of the 12 were tested or counted in the 594 dead from covid-19 that day in NYC.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52196815
Mordred said:PJYoung said:
Then there was this report from a medic who responded to 12 cardiac arrest calls in one day (he said the average pre covid was 2 to 3 for the week) and said all 12 had heavy covid-19 symptoms leading to their deaths and none of the 12 were tested or counted in the 594 dead from covid-19 that day in NYC.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52196815
Just as an aside, unless I'm missing some other huge hotspot, only NY is having a serious issue with undercounting as any place else should be testing corpses who they suspect of COVID. NY had to stop doing that due to sheer number of cases and shortage of tests. It sounds like testing is quickly ramping up there as well and the shortages might soon be (or are?) over, and they'll have very accurate numbers for those who died at home as well again shortly.
Quote:
In a new count released Tuesday, 3,778 more deaths were added to the rolls driving up the previously recorded total of 6,589 by more than half. Now, the city records 10,367 deaths related to the virus.
Previously, the city had not counted people who died at home without getting tested for the coronavirus, or who died in nursing homes or at hospitals, but did not have a confirmed positive test result. Mayor Bill de Blasio admitted last week that the true number of deaths was far higher than the official tally, and said the city would start including presumed coronavirus cases in its data.
The latest statistics include probable coronavirus deaths through Monday. And even the new statistics may understate the death toll. Probable deaths were recorded as people who did not have a positive lab test for Covid-19, but did have Covid-19 or something similar listed as the cause of death on their death certificate.
People whose death certificates don't mention the virus still are not counted. From March 11 through April 13, 8,184 city residents died of causes not classified as confirmed or probable coronavirus.
Among probable coronavirus deaths, 60 percent happened in hospitals, 22 percent in the victim's home and 18 percent in nursing homes or long-term care facilities.