A guy who can follow data. Am I not allowed an opinion? I forget the rules some of you arbitrarily set out sometimes. Please let me know what I'm allowed to do from this point forward. Will be anxiously awaiting your orders.
This is not directed at OP, but geez how do people not comprehend logistical growth yet?PJYoung said:
beerad12man said:
A guy who can follow data. Am I not allowed an opinion? I forget the rules some of you arbitrarily set out sometimes. Please let me know what I'm allowed to do from this point forward. Will be anxiously awaiting your orders.
P.U.T.U said:
Harris county has a 7 day average of 14 deaths, Dallas county 3, Collin county less than 1, Tarrant 5, Bexar 5, Travis county 1. Not exactly the death spike the "experts" were saying if we opened up.
Cepe said:P.U.T.U said:
Harris county has a 7 day average of 14 deaths, Dallas county 3, Collin county less than 1, Tarrant 5, Bexar 5, Travis county 1. Not exactly the death spike the "experts" were saying if we opened up.
Harris county should be yellow at least on the verge of green but it ain't happening.
Government needs to learn (Fauci, Harris County, California, looking at you) that when you continually cry wolf then the general population just stops listening to you.Cepe said:P.U.T.U said:
Harris county has a 7 day average of 14 deaths, Dallas county 3, Collin county less than 1, Tarrant 5, Bexar 5, Travis county 1. Not exactly the death spike the "experts" were saying if we opened up.
Harris county should be yellow at least on the verge of green but it ain't happening.
TMC stopped providing a daily data update as of April 11.buffalo chip said:
Page 67 has no charts!
Saw an article last week saying Michigan was a hot spot, but Gov Whitmer was going to have a hard time issuing another lockdown.Aston94 said:Government needs to learn (Fauci, Harris County, California, looking at you) that when you continually cry wolf then the general population just stops listening to you.Cepe said:P.U.T.U said:
Harris county has a 7 day average of 14 deaths, Dallas county 3, Collin county less than 1, Tarrant 5, Bexar 5, Travis county 1. Not exactly the death spike the "experts" were saying if we opened up.
Harris county should be yellow at least on the verge of green but it ain't happening.
I think it's way too early to hit the panic button in terms of stalling on vaccinations. Polls still suggest that 70% of adults are likely to get them. We are still pumping out over 3 million per day(1.7 first doses), and only around 47% of adults have one dose now. We will be at 65% within 30 days, and 70% within 45 days. Then we can really see how much it will stall out. Then I would see it start to slow down. I'd check numbers around then before starting to hit the panic button that we won't get enough vaccinated to get this at comfortable numbers. But I think that we will easily get there, and that the difference in spread at 47% versus 70%, or even 60%, of adults, will likely be significant.amercer said:
Good news is good news, but nationwide cases are up and deaths seem to have plateaued. I'm disappointed that we aren't seeing bigger effects of the vaccines yet, because I'm concerned that the rate of new shots in arms is going to slow considerably. In Florida, supply already exceeds demand.
amercer said:
Good news is good news, but nationwide cases are up and deaths seem to have plateaued. I'm disappointed that we aren't seeing bigger effects of the vaccines yet, because I'm concerned that the rate of new shots in arms is going to slow considerably. In Florida, supply already exceeds demand.
I think that's fair. Towards the end of May. I see it remaining strong until about half way through May. If for the sake of easy math, we assume the 70-75% article's I listed above remain correct, we stay at the 1.5mm number, we will hit 65% in exactly 30 days(122.9 million now, adding 45 million in 30 days, out of about 258 million adults). Then I think we see the gradual decrease in 1st dose demand, and can quickly catch 2nd doses up at a rate of about 2-2.5 million a day.Squadron7 said:
I called it a month ago that before May there would be a glut of vaccines because we would start running into the sector of the population that is at least ambivalent about taking the vaccine.
What the hell are you doing bringing all these facts to the discussion?!?!?!?!beerad12man said:I think it's way too early to hit the panic button in terms of stalling on vaccinations. Polls still suggest that 70% of adults are likely to get them. We are still pumping out over 3 million per day(1.7 first doses), and only around 47% of adults have one dose now. We will be at 65% within 30 days, and 70% within 45 days. Then we can really see how much it will stall out. Then I would see it start to slow down. I'd check numbers around then before starting to hit the panic button that we won't get enough vaccinated to get this at comfortable numbers. But I think that we will easily get there, and that the difference in spread at 47% versus 70%, or even 60%, of adults, will likely be significant.amercer said:
Good news is good news, but nationwide cases are up and deaths seem to have plateaued. I'm disappointed that we aren't seeing bigger effects of the vaccines yet, because I'm concerned that the rate of new shots in arms is going to slow considerably. In Florida, supply already exceeds demand.
Israel plummeted around 60% of adults, and 50% of their overall population, not 45% of adults and 37% of their overall population like we are now. I think that's what will happen here, and I see no issues getting to that mark in the next 30 days.
https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2021/03/05/growing-share-of-americans-say-they-plan-to-get-a-covid-19-vaccine-or-already-have/#:~:text=Taken%20together%2C%20about%20seven%2Din,to%20get%20vaccinated%20in%20November.
https://ktla.com/news/coronavirus/many-americans-still-hesitate-to-get-covid-19-but-reluctance-is-easing-poll-shows/
Also, I still don't know if I would classify deaths as "stalling out". At the end of the day, they have dropped from 2 weeks ago, and are down over 75% since our peak just a mere 3 months ago. I'd give it another month. If they hold steady at 750 per day in mid May, then they would have stalled out. But I could see them being closer to 500 by then. We shall see. According to the CDC, we were at 825 2 weeks ago, and now 713. The other link below shows 890 on 4/1/14, and 754 on 4/14/21.
It might be gradual and/or less than we'd like, and it's hard to say for sure with the skewed 4/7/21 day that clearly backlogged deaths, but I still see a decline.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendsdeaths
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en