I know they sometimes end up looking better in retrospect, but this has been a turd of an offseason for the Spurs. Lose Simmons and half the front court depth, add Rudy Gay coming off injury and extremely low likelihood to re-sign him if he plays well, add a raw pick and roll player that looks like a multi year project at best.

If they don't reel in some nice pieces next summer, I fear that an extended rebuild will be on the horizon for the first time in 30 years. And the worst part is it would be starting in Kawhis prime.

Doomed to another 60 win team and WCF appearance.

Agree regarding Jefferson, that he'd be the most likely to make the team of the summer league guys not named Forbes. They probably roll with a vet though, especially if a guy like Boris or other vet would take a 1 year deal.

Also, aren't rookie deals a team option in year 3?

I didn't mean for this year. I meant beyond. This year will be ok.

Next year the Spurs lose Gay if he plays well.

That leaves them with Patty, Kawhi, and the guys on rookie deals (and probably Gasol).

If they don't land some major key pieces next year, it's gonna be a rough climb back to the top.

flashplayer said:

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I didn't mean for this year. I meant beyond. This year will be ok.

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I think what you're seeing is a hesitancy to limit flexibility after this year. Any big splash move would have come with longer term commitments. So the way it looks now is they will have only a handful of guys under contract and a lot of cap room to work with.

My dream is shattered...for now. (Regarding Caruso)

flashplayer said:

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Next year the Spurs lose Gay if he plays well.

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So you basically see Gay as a 1-year rental? If he doesn't play well, then gone. If plays well then gone?

Jazz have waived Boris

Yes. He's definitely a 1 year rental.

Pumpkinhead said:

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flashplayer said:

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Next year the Spurs lose Gay if he plays well.

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So you basically see Gay as a 1-year rental? If he doesn't play well, then gone. If plays well then gone?

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Well if he doesn't play well it's still his option to come back. It's basically 2 seasons to show he's back from the injury. If he's back after one then he'll opt out and get a new deal. I suspect if that happens the Spurs would have a good shot at resigning him.

If he has a bad year and opts in, the Spurs will probably dump him to a team that's playing for the 2019 summer FA chase.

Only 3-4 teams are going to have significant cap space next year. A LOT of teams are going to be well over the luxury tax next year. Since we struck out on the Pauls, keeping the powder dry while adding a legit scorer was the smart move. Now we will be the only team with room to pull in a max player that also has an MVP candidate.

I'm actually more optimistic now than I was at the beginning of FA. Paul was probably the only realistic play that closes the gap with GS in any measurable level. Spurs will be a bit worse than last year, but still very good and will have a bunch of space to close the gap with GS next year. They also will have a better idea of what the young guys will bring after another year.

Spurs aren't a real championship contender this year, but should be positioned next year to make a real run if they can land a big FA to pair with Kawhi.

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Spurs aren't a real championship contender this year

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Spurs would be considered a Championship contender this year with this team if GSW didn't have a Super Team.

Remember before the playoffs in 07, everyone assumed Dallas was going to get their revenge title. Then Baron Davis happened.

All it takes is for Durant or Curry to get injured which really isn't that unbelievable.

Guitarsoup said:

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Spurs aren't a real championship contender this year

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All it takes is for Durant or Curry to get injured which really isn't that unbelievable.

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What?!?! Those guys are like chiseled stone.

GatorAg03 said:

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Spurs will be a bit worse than last year, but still very good and will have a bunch of space to close the gap with GS next year.

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I agree. For next season, I'd probably predict their win total next year somewhere in the mid-50's and probably power rank them at #3 behind Golden State and Houston (assuming Melo goes to Rockets to nudge them into 'Super Team' classification). And Oklahoma City nipping right below them at #4. Which is still really good.

flashplayer said:

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Guitarsoup said:

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Spurs aren't a real championship contender this year

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All it takes is for Durant or Curry to get injured which really isn't that unbelievable.

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What?!?! Those guys are like chiseled stone.

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The only superstar who doesn't seem to be a real human is LeBron. 14 years, a gazillion minutes going to Finals year after year after year...and the dude has looked essentially indestructible.

Curry, Durant, Kawhi, Chris Paul, Westbrook, etc...pretty much every other star player at some point in their career has shown that it is technically feasible for them to get physically injured.

LeBron though has seemed immune to normal laws of physics.

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assuming Melo goes to Rockets to nudge them into 'Super Team' classification

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Depends what they give up. Melo is an inefficient volume scorer (.436/.348 over the past 3 years) that doesn't play defense. Ariza will continue to decline (.401/.344 last year with a noticeable decline in defense). They still have major defensive gaps and while PJ Tucker will help, he is historically a poor shooter that can't create for himself and will be a liability on offense. I don't think Houston got significantly better and I don't think a 33-yo Melo with 1100 games under his belt significantly helps them.

Houston made a lot of noise with three point shooting, but if you look at the stats, they weren't great at it. Ryan Anderson and Pat Beverly were their best shooters and both were gone. Last year they were 15th in 3pt % at just below the league average.

Hard to be a Dunk and Three team with no one that can make threes except the guy that is supposed to pass to the shooter.

Guitarsoup said:

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assuming Melo goes to Rockets to nudge them into 'Super Team' classification

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Hard to be a Dunk and Three team with no one that can make threes except the guy that is supposed to pass to the shooter.

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I'm skeptical that they have a 'Dunk and Three' only style offense since Chris Paul and Melo both have great mid-range games. This article from last year ranks both Paul and Melo in the Top-10 in terms of mid range games (Paul #6 and Melo #2). The talking heads have been discussing this and seem to feel that Houston offensive style is almost certainly going to adjust to something different than last season with Paul and Melo.

http://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/the-10-best-midrange-scorers-in-the-nba-123116

With Harden, Paul, and Melo...the Rockets are going to score some points. Agree about question marks on defense.

The other problem with Melo is the same problem that SA has with LMA. He has to work with the ball. He generally scores out of ISOs not off being assisted. That takes the ball out of two great creators for a guy that has shot 44/34% the las three years. It kills the momentum of the offense when LMA or Melo goes into ISO mode. It is not the style of a Mike DAntoni offense for sure, which is why Melo got MDA fired in New York. Go listen to MDA talk about Melo on Woj's podcast a year ago.

Guitarsoup said:

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The other problem with Melo is the same problem that SA has with LMA. He has to work with the ball. He generally scores out of ISOs not off being assisted. That takes the ball out of two great creators for a guy that has shot 44/34% the las three years. It kills the momentum of the offense when LMA or Melo goes into ISO mode. It is not the style of a Mike DAntoni offense for sure, which is why Melo got MDA fired in New York. Go listen to MDA talk about Melo on Woj's podcast a year ago.

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It's all fair criticisms of Anthony and clear concerns that I have with the potential acquisition... But the other side of that is he's never been on a team where he's not far and away the best player on it... And I think that's sort of a curse for him. He's been miscast as a top 10 player and he's never been THAT good.

I live in the NY area and see a lot of his games. He's a great scorer and by far the best one on the Knicks and it's not close. I get why he plays like he does. People will say 'oh but Porzingas'... Porzingas has great skills but he's probably 2-3 years still from being an alpha dog IMO.

Basically, all this is to say I don't know how Carmelo will work as what will ultimately be a role player here. But he's so good that bringing him in and trying him as one is totally worth the risk.

ATM9000 said:

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Guitarsoup said:

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The other problem with Melo is the same problem that SA has with LMA. He has to work with the ball. He generally scores out of ISOs not off being assisted. That takes the ball out of two great creators for a guy that has shot 44/34% the las three years. It kills the momentum of the offense when LMA or Melo goes into ISO mode. It is not the style of a Mike DAntoni offense for sure, which is why Melo got MDA fired in New York. Go listen to MDA talk about Melo on Woj's podcast a year ago.

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It's all fair criticisms of Anthony and clear concerns that I have with the potential acquisition... But the other side of that is he's never been on a team where he's not far and away the best player on it... And I think that's sort of a curse for him. He's been miscast as a top 10 player and he's never been THAT good.

I live in the NY area and see a lot of his games. He's a great scorer and by far the best one on the Knicks and it's not close. I get why he plays like he does. People will say 'oh but Porzingas'... Porzingas has great skills but he's probably 2-3 years still from being an alpha dog IMO.

Basically, all this is to say I don't know how Carmelo will work as what will ultimately be a role player here. But he's so good that bringing him in and trying him as one is totally worth the risk.

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Some analysts like Zach Lowe seem to feel that good chance Melo adapts playing a role more like he did on the Team USA squads in the Olympics than he did on those bad Knick teams.

There is no question he is still an elite scorer and will be fascinating watching Harden/Paul/Melo combination to see what that looks like.

Pumpkinhead said:

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flashplayer said:

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Guitarsoup said:

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Spurs aren't a real championship contender this year

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All it takes is for Durant or Curry to get injured which really isn't that unbelievable.

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What?!?! Those guys are like chiseled stone.

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The only superstar who doesn't seem to be a real human is LeBron. 14 years, a gazillion minutes going to Finals year after year after year...and the dude has looked essentially indestructible.

Curry, Durant, Kawhi, Chris Paul, Westbrook, etc...pretty much every other star player at some point in their career has shown that it is technically feasible for them to get physically injured.

LeBron though has seemed immune to normal laws of physics.

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Except for that whole cramping debacle in the phone booth the other year.

The obvious difference being that in the international game, he is playing with 12 players that are better than anyone on the other team.

On the Rockets, you will have him on the court with one or two elite distributors, possibly one above average shooter in Eric Gordon, a center that is a threat for lobs and put backs and maybe some defensive specialists that can be streaky shooters (Ariza/Tucker.)

So the big difference is that on Team USA, maybe you slack off Melo a bit to make sure Durant doesn't kill you. But on Team Houston, you might slack off Trevor Ariza or PJ Tucker to make sure Melo doesn't kill you. And I think you will be OK there.

Melo takes great advantage of the shorter 3pt line in FIBA. He also kills the squads playing 2 bigs because he's a prototype small ball four.

I'm wondering how a great iso and 2pt shooter is going to fit in Houstons 3pt or nothing philosophy. Not to mention Dantoni loving the pick and roll game.

I think someone is going to be the odd man out and it feels like Carmello is the one.

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-vertical-podcast-with-woj/id1065985281?mt=2#

Scroll down to Mike DAntoni's podcast. He also talks about how he got his start by being a Scout for Pop and has some stories about Duncan.

I just don't see how you can argue against Carmelo on one hand and hype up achilles injured Gay on the other. Both are highly inefficient scorers with talent, but losing histories in the nba. Going to a brand new system with some talent finally around them and a winning culture might make a difference and might not.

At least Melo is healthy. I would trade him straight up for unknown healthy Gay right now all things being equal, if I'm being honest. He had had higher highs if nothing else.

Obviously, I want to hype up Gay and hope Melo fails but, let's not kid ourselves, both could range from great to terrible signings. Both are expected to be about the 3rd best player on their team.

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I just don't see how you can argue against Carmelo on one hand and hype up achilles injured Gay on the other.

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Because the Spurs are deep and aren't going to rely on Gay like Houston would rely on Melo AND Gay fits into the Spurs team much better than Melo's who style is completely against Houston's and the fact that Melo recently got Houston's coach fired because he didn't like playing his style.

How is all that not obvious to you?

So gay is going to fit into the Spurs system when inefficient LMA another ball dominant, inefficient shooter didn't? Plus coming off an injury? And how are the Spurs so deep? The rockets are the ones with the 6th man of the year. Spurs most likely just lost their best 6th man candidate in Simmons. Not to mention Lee. The Spurs bench is a big unknown and nowhere near this certainty you are making it out to be.

Any chance Diaw comes back, I really liked his passing and attitude?

Much better than Lee and I actually enjoyed Lee's hustle.

I miss watching Prime Melo during his days with the Nugs. Such a fluid scorer. If he threw himself into the Marion/diaw 7SOL Suns style Houston would be pretty deadly but i dont think he's there mentally.

PLUM LOCO said:

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Any chance Diaw comes back, I really liked his passing and attitude?

Much better than Lee and I actually enjoyed Lee's hustle.

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If they let S Jax boomerang back, then why not Diaw.

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So gay is going to fit into the Spurs system when inefficient LMA another ball dominant, inefficient shooter didn't?

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Gay doesn't have to dominate the ball the way LMA or Melo do. And Gay is more efficient than Melo by a long shot.

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And how are the Spurs so deep?

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The same way they have always been deep. By having multiple people off the bench that can contribute and allowing the Spurs to not struggle with Kawhi is resting.

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The rockets are the ones with the 6th man of the year.

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That's one player. They gave up several to get Paul. They have Nene (also coming off injury/surgery and about to turn 35) and Gordon. Then they have a non-scorer defensive specialist in Tucker. But a major problem for Houston last year was that they did not have enough bench to give their guys rest, Harden and others were worn down by the second round and then they got thinner in the offseason. And they may have to give up Gordon and/or Ariza to get Melo in addition to Anderson.

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Spurs most likely just lost their best 6th man candidate in Simmons. Not to mention Lee.

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Both are still up in the air.

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The Spurs bench is a big unknown and nowhere near this certainty you are making it out to be.

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I think Lee or Diaw take a vet min.

I'll take Lee or Diaw+SloMo+Patty+Gay+Bertans+Murray over Tucker+Gordon+Nene. That assumes White+Forbes are in Austin. The way forbes is playing, he might be the best shooting coming off anyone's bench.

If the Spurs have Simmons come back, it will be even better. Considering there has been zero interest around the league in Simmons, I think he may take that 1y deal to prove himself for a contract next year.