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Tropical two-fer

533,427 Views | 3418 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by V8Aggie
Beat40
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11:19a, 10/6/20
Next 24 hours are going to be very interesting to follow. For Houston's sake, let's hope this thing moves a little more east. I always hate thinking because of other people.

Really, I'd just rather this thing dissipate and not let anyone worry about it.
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Cromagnum
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11:33a, 10/6/20
AG
Look at the future feeder band across the entire gulf. Looks like whatever gamma left behind is juicing it up.

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HossAg
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12:18p, 10/6/20
AG
Lake Charles can't take another ass blasting from a cat 3 or 4. Literally just got power back here last week, and so much debris on the side of the roads from people fixing their houses.
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Phat32
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12:25p, 10/6/20
AG
We were planning to be in Cancun on Thursday. Switched to Cabo a month ago. What luck.
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Ducks4brkfast
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In reply to Phat32 • 12:32p, 10/6/20
AG
yukmonkey said:
We were planning to be in Cancun on Thursday. Switched to Cabo a month ago. What luck.
That is always the right choice.
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schmendeler
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In reply to Phat32 • 12:47p, 10/6/20
AG
yukmonkey said:
We were planning to be in Cancun on Thursday. Switched to Cabo a month ago. What luck.
really makes you think.
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P.H. Dexippus
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12:56p, 10/6/20
AG
140mph
The story isn't that [DeSantis] "couldn't win" the primary. The story is that an overwhelming majority of our population is heinously stupid. 50% of them vote for communists. 75% of the remaining 50% vote for Trump, who cant win. When the majority of the opposition party insists on voting for an opposition candidate who can't win, you get exactly the government you deserve. - Well Endowed Ag
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Seabreeze
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2:14p, 10/6/20
Getting close to Lake Charles
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ChemAg15
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2:17p, 10/6/20
AG
I guess L really does stand for Louisiana.
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LC Wannabe
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2:31p, 10/6/20
S
I hate saying this, but I'm gonna need Delta to go ahead and head east.

I live in Sulphur, and we are still cleaning up from Laura. Hell, I just got use to having power again.
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Al Bula
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2:37p, 10/6/20
AG
So let me get this straight...

Hurricane Delta is going to hit somewhere between Delta Downs and the Mississippi River Delta?!

2020 has not been funny in a long time.
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Teddy Perkins
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2:54p, 10/6/20
AG
Quote:
The bottom line with Delta's track is that right now every available bit of evidence we have suggests this storm is going to turn toward Louisianabut its future path is not 100 percent locked down.

Houston effects

Along this track Houston is likely to experience only very mild effects from Deltaperhaps some rain showers on Thursday, Friday or Saturday. Seas will reach their maximum on Friday, but should be below the levels the region experienced during Hurricane Laura.
SCW 2pm update
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kelkel25
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3:25p, 10/6/20
I was at our Sulphur office two days after the storm and it was a total mess. That was a tight, compact storm that if you were in it, it was no Bueno. This one at least for now seems very similar, another hit to Lake Charles would be awful.
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kelkel25
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3:25p, 10/6/20
I was at our Sulphur office two days after the storm and it was a total mess. That was a tight, compact storm that if you were in it, it was no Bueno. This one at least for now seems very similar, another hit to Lake Charles would be awful.
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BayAg_14
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3:29p, 10/6/20
Cold gulf waters and wind sheer will be Louisiana's friend.
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ChemAg15
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3:41p, 10/6/20
AG
4pm update shifts the track west again...
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jetch17
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3:42p, 10/6/20
AG
The gulf ain't exactly 'cold' these days
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Caliber
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In reply to jetch17 • 3:49p, 10/6/20
AG
jetch17 said:
The gulf ain't exactly 'cold' these days
It isn't cold.... but it isn't like the Caribbean that is helping it undergo rapid intensification...
Tropical Cyclone heat potential (not regular temp)

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Cromagnum
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3:49p, 10/6/20
AG
Been shifting west since early this morning. Still looks like its gonna hook but how far will it get before it does?

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Seabreeze
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4:31p, 10/6/20

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98Ag99Grad
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4:47p, 10/6/20
AG
Euro has been consistent with LA/TX border landfall. Everyone else east of there.
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Beat40
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In reply to 98Ag99Grad • 4:57p, 10/6/20
98Ag99Grad said:
Euro has been consistent with LA/TX border landfall. Everyone else east of there.


Similar to Laura where it was west of all the other models until the last day where it tightened up with the consensus. Will be interesting to see what happens with Delta.
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Fitch
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5:22p, 10/6/20
AG
Can anyone recommend a map service that would show the storm surge in the Yucatan?

My family got evac'd from the beach and found a hotel in Tulum. Not sure I agree with that decision. They're cutting all power, water, gas and internet preemptively at 10pm.
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Seabreeze
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In reply to Fitch • 5:31p, 10/6/20
From the 5pm Noaa update


STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
in areas of onshore winds by as much as 9 to 13 ft above normal tide
levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo
Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along
the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo
Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.
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plain_o_llama
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In reply to Fitch • 6:10p, 10/6/20
Looks like downtown Tulum is 5-6 meters above sea level

https://en-il.topographic-map.com/maps/rzmm/Tulum/
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Fitch
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6:32p, 10/6/20
AG
Thanks, y'all
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Seabreeze
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In reply to Fitch • 7:05p, 10/6/20

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SJEAg
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7:17p, 10/6/20
AG
Near Cat5 yet hurricane force winds only extending out 30 miles seems crazy compact.
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Anti-taxxer
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In reply to Fitch • 7:24p, 10/6/20
AG
Fitch said:
Can anyone recommend a map service that would show the storm surge in the Yucatan?

My family got evac'd from the beach and found a hotel in Tulum. Not sure I agree with that decision. They're cutting all power, water, gas and internet preemptively at 10pm.

Tulum isn't *that* far from Cancun, is it? And still on the water. That's an odd plan. Prayers for them!
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Seabreeze
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In reply to SJEAg • 7:25p, 10/6/20
Wilma that hit around there in '05, the eye wall was only 2 miles wide with substained wind of 185, gust of 215 at 882 mbar.
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Fitch
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In reply to Anti-taxxer • 7:46p, 10/6/20
AG
They're about 3 miles inland in a concrete hotel. Wanted to drive further south today but roads were standstill. Took 3 hours to get gas.
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Sazerac
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In reply to Anti-taxxer • 8:14p, 10/6/20
AG
It's on the border with Belize. It's a better evac spot. The town is small and will be safe.

The small resorts on the beach will take on some surge.

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Seabreeze
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In reply to Fitch • 8:22p, 10/6/20
Similar storms, same paths to this point. But each one is different. Hopefully they hunker down, hope for the best, be prepared for the worst. I'll put them in prayers tonight. I know it has to killing you right now.
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Seabreeze
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In reply to Fitch • 8:27p, 10/6/20
Talum looks to be south and West of the eye at landfall. If they don't take to much surge at first they will be on the North wind side pushing water out as it moves past.
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Ag_07
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8:31p, 10/6/20
AG
We just booked a trip to Playa Mujeres in Feb for a wedding.

May be changing those plans.
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